London scoping - ukcip

Final Report
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Table 3.5 Key climate and environmental trends in London and the wider Thames Region 35
Table 4.1 SRES storylines used by the IPCC for future greenhouse gas emission scenarios 41
Table 4.2 Consensus about future changes in the climate system 42
Table 4.3 Estimates of confidence for selected observed and projected changes in extreme weather
and climate events 43
Table 4.4 Summary of results presented in the UKCIP02 Scientific Report 44
Table 4.5 Climate changes for Greater London* under the UKCIP02 Low Emissions scenario 45
Table 4.6 Climate changes for Greater London under the UKCIP02 High Emissions scenario 45
Table 4.7 Percentage of years experiencing extreme seasonal anomalies across central England
and Wales for the Medium-High Emissions scenario 51
Table 4.8 Suggested uncertainty margins to be applied to the UKCIP02 scenarios of changes in
average winter and summer temperature and precipitation 55
Table 4.9 Changes in the average nocturnal heat island intensity, net temperature † and, change in
the number of intense (>4ºC urban-rural difference) heat island days in central London
(Medium-High Emissions, and Medium-Low Emissions, downscaled), for the 2020s,
2050s and 2080s with respect to the 1961 to 1990 average 58
Table 5.1 Potential temperature related impacts identified by stakeholders 62
Table 5.2 Potential air quality impacts identified by stakeholders 64
Table 5.3 Potential water resource/quality impacts and responses identified by stakeholders 67
Table 5.4 Changes in River Kennet water balance terms, the annual maximum soil moisture deficit
(SMD), and length of the recharge season under the Medium-High Emissions and
Medium-Low Emissions scenarios (downscaled) 70
Table 5.5 The same as Table 5.4, but for the River Loddon 70
Table 5.6 Percentage change in Thames Region 30- and 60-day duration autumn/winter maximum
precipitation totals under the Medium-High Emissions scenario (downscaled) 74
Table 5.7 Potential flood impacts and responses identified by stakeholders 77
Table 5.8 Potential biodiversity impacts and adaptations identified by stakeholders 83
Table 5.9 Summary of key climate change impacts on London’s environment 85
Table 6.1 Key Features of the Global Markets and Regional Sustainability Scenarios 99
Table 6.2 Summer and winter extreme temperatures for London and ‘competitor’ cities 103
Table 6.3 Increase in cooling energy compared to 1961-2000 for standard air conditioned building,
by simulation 111
Table 6.4 Potential impacts of climate change on exposure to air pollution 132
Table 6.5 Summary of the effect upon London’s ‘attractiveness’ of climate change impacts on
different systems and sectors. ‘Lower’, for example, indicates London becomes less
attractive from the perspective of that sector under climate change 146
Table 7.1 Total Cost of rail network disruption: Stroud’s Bridge, Oxfordshire 157
Table 7.2 Estimated costs and benefits of the weather of 1995 on air, rail, road and water transport
(£ million) 162
Table 7.3 Summary Table of Impacts - Transport 164
Table 7.4 Summary table of impacts - Energy 168
Table 7.5 Summary table of impacts - Insurance 175
Table 7.6 Summary table of impacts - Financial 178
Table 7.7 Summary table of impacts - Manufacturing 181
Table 7.8 Summary table of impacts - Environmental Businesses 185
Table 7.9 Potential impacts of climate change on holiday destinations 187
Table 7.10 Summary table of impacts - Tourism and Leisure 189
Table 7.11 Summary table of impacts - Public Administration 191
Table 7.12 Summary table of impacts - Creative Industries 193
Table 8.1 Summary of Possible Effects upon Equity Arising from the Indirect and Direct Impacts of
Climate Change 209
Figure 3.1a Central England Temperature record for the post-industrial period, 1861-2001. The
anomalies (or departures from the mean) are relative to the 1961-1990 average. 11
Figure 3.1b Annual frequency of hot days (daily maximum > 25ºC) at Kew, 1881-1998. Anomalies
are relative to the 1961-1990 average. 12
Figure 3.2a Difference in nocturnal minimum (left column) and day-time maximum (right column) daily
temperatures between St James’s Park (central London) and Wisley (rural Surrey), July
to August 1995. 13
Figure 3.2b Annual frequency of days with nocturnal heat island intensity greater than 4ºC (left
column), and annual average nocturnal heat island intensity (right column) between St
James’s Park (central London) and Wisley (rural Surrey), 1959-1998. Note: data for
November-December 1998 are missing. 13
Figure 3.2c As in Figure 3.2b, but for day-time maximum temperatures 13