London scoping - ukcip

Final Report
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instance, approaches for sustainable development which rely heavily upon market mechanisms
(natural and socially-responsible capitalism) are less readily accommodated in the scenarios
framework. Development of desirable ‘end-point’ scenarios by the London Climate Change
Partnership itself might be a useful step in future work on adaptation.
6.3 The Draft London Plan: A Hybrid Scenario?
The draft London Plan in effect presents its own scenario for London, but on the much shorter
time scale of the next 15 years. How, then, does the draft London Plan scenario relate to the
Global Markets and Regional Sustainability scenarios? We could perhaps identify the draft
London Plan as a hybrid scenario containing elements of GM and RS. There is undeniably an
emphasis on preserving, and if possible enhancing, London’s global role as a financial and
business services centre. The influx of new inhabitants is welcomed as a way of satisfying the
labour shortages, with 600,000 new jobs anticipated. The view is taken that the choice that will
be made by global companies is not ‘London versus other British cities’, but ‘London versus
New York, Tokyo, Paris or Berlin’. This identification of London as the jewel in the crown of
the UK economy, is very much a continuation of its traditional role in the UK, hence ‘dynamics
as usual’. At the same time, the Plan recognises the considerable social and economic
disparities within the city and the need for more sustainable approaches. Hence, there is a
strong emphasis upon community development and policing, better health care and education,
more effective and equitable transport, a solution to the problem of overly-priced housing, more
attention to the problem of over-crowding in houses in certain sections of society due to house
prices, more sustainable building design, reduction of waste and more sustainable use of energy
and enhancement of open and green spaces. These strategies and policies tend much more
towards sustainability, with its focus on equity, balance between economic and social
development, and limiting environmental impacts.
The draft London Plan scenario is in some respects similar to GM for some issues (e.g.
economic growth, population change, new jobs), and similar to RS (or a global sustainability
scenario) in others (e.g. sustainable design & construction, community development, policing,
affordable housing, etc.). It is important to stress that the underlying basis for the draft London
Plan scenario and the GM and RS scenarios is different in several important respects. Firstly,
the draft London Plan projections to 2016 are based upon established forecasting methods, such
as econometric models. The GM and RS refer to 50 years hence, and there is no known
forecasting method or model able to reliably capture socio-economic, political or cultural
change on such long timescales. Hence, our scenarios are deliberately qualitative, to avoid the
false impression that they are anything other than indicative.
Secondly, the draft London Plan is a critical document to assist in detailed planning and policy
decisions which have to be taken now and in the next several years. By contrast, the climate
and socio-economic scenarios we use, operate at a much less refined level of detail and
sophistication. To use an analogy, the draft London Plan is equivalent to planning your holiday
in, say, 3 months times. Attempting to use the climate change and socio-economic scenarios in
this way would be like trying to plan in detail a holiday to be held in 10 years time: what day
you intend to leave, where you will stay over, which travel mode and firm you will use, and so
on. The appropriate way of using the climate change and socio-economic scenarios is instead to
obtain a broad-brush evaluation and assessment of policies and commitments being entered into
in the near term. They can be seen as a ‘check list’ against which policies can be passed to
explore how ‘climate change (un)friendly’ they are.