London scoping - ukcip

Final Report
46
Figure 4.1 Reference map showing the south-east region used herein with respect to the
UKCIP02 domain
Temperature
By the 2080s, annual temperatures average across the south-east UK may rise by about 2.2ºC
for the Low Emissions and by about 4.2ºC for the High Emissions scenario (see Figure 4.2).
In general, there may be a greater warming in summer and autumn than in winter and spring,
and there may be greater warming during night in winter and during day in summer. This
implies that heating degree days will decrease, and that cooling degree days will increase. The
likelihood of extreme temperatures is also expected to increase. For example, the summer
maximum temperature that has a 5% chance of occurring on a given day under the current
climate may increase from about 28ºC to 36ºC by the 2080s under the Medium-High
Emissions.