London scoping - ukcip

9. Conclusions
9.1 Initial Study Findings
Final Report
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The climate in London, as measured by key environmental indicators such as air temperature,
rainfall, snowfall, evaporation and relative humidity, river flow, groundwater levels, tidal levels,
river water quality, air quality and biodiversity has changed during the 20 th century.
The climate in London is expected to continue to change in the 21 st century due, at least in part,
to greenhouse gas emissions from human activities.
London has a number of unique and key features that could be vulnerable to the impacts of
climate change: businesses like insurance and utilities will be likely to feel the strain as climate
induced stress on infrastructure and built environment increases; the workforce will be affected
by changes in transport, health and the nature of the working environment; culture, leisure and
tourism sectors will face increased visitor and site management challenges; flood defences will
probably have to be strengthened and water resource management reviewed; rare habitats and
species may be threatened as the environment changes around them; the seasonality of energy
demands will be likely to evolve with reduced demand for heating in winter and increased
demand for cooling in summer.
As well as some of the threats of climate change identified above, during an initial stakeholder
workshop held at the start of the project, a number of climate change related opportunities were
identified. These included: an increase in outdoor lifestyles such as increased use of open spaces
for “open air festivals” and an increase in cycling and walking which would reduce pressures on
transport systems; the opportunity to develop sustainable houses and neighbourhoods; climate
change as a driver for greater environmental awareness and action; increased demand for “green
products and services” including renewable energy; increase in London’s tourism and leisure
markets; and new opportunities for carbon trading services.
9.2 Key Climate Change Impacts on London
• London may be particularly sensitive to increases in temperature in the future
because of the urban heat island effect. Models show progressive increases in both
summer heat island intensity and frequency with climate change. This will have
detrimental effects on air quality, summer electricity demand (although there will
be a reduction in demand for winter heating), and comfort in the city's buildings
and transport network. By the 2080s, London’s summer extreme temperatures
could be comparable with those of present day New York.
• London is exposed to far greater potential damage from flooding than any other
urban area in the UK - due to the value of its assets and the fact that a significant
proportion of London lies within the floodplain of the River Thames and its
tributaries. Whilst flood protection levels are presently good, in the longer term,
unless current action to increase investments in flood management measures is
continued, the increased risk of flooding from climate change could lead to damage