London scoping - ukcip

Final Report
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Table 6.1 suggests how each variable might change under each scenario based upon the authors’
interpretation and the scenarios literature (e.g. UKCIP 2001).
Table 6.1 Key Features of the Global Markets and Regional Sustainability Scenarios
Variable Global Markets Regional Sustainability
International Migration High, driven by economic demand for more
employees.
Change in incomes &
wealth
Change in lifestyle &
values
Change in perceptions
& beliefs
Change in leisure and
tourism
Greater disparity in incomes emerge due to
market forces. Ranks of super rich and
super poor grow.
Increasing choice of goods and services
allow individuals to exercise personal
lifestyle choice. High pressure jobs and
long work patterns become more wide
spread.
Individual choice remains dominant; strong
confidence in science and technology to
find solutions to emergent problems.
Equality of opportunity.
Increased globalised tourism & leisure, with
much more and cheaper aviation. Older
and younger population much more mobile.
More international migration, hence
associated travel.
Change in commerce International business and commerce
dominate. International financing of science
and technology, which drives the global
economy.
Change in industry ‘Old manufacturing’ declines, whilst hightech.
manufacturing grows; job insecurity
rises
Change in transport More premium-payment transport solutions
provided, e.g. high fares upon privately
financed transport links. This increases
unequal mobility.
Change in health care Trend is towards more privately-based and
financed health care, e.g. through private
insurance measures
Attitude to environment Environment to be used to further economic
growth. Must be protected if growth is
threatened, and it is economically viable to
do so. ‘Conquer nature’
Change in arts & media Media consolidates further at the global
scale, with more concentration in fewer
hands; rapid expansion in ‘pay as you go’
multi-media options, e.g. cable, satellite,
mobile communications
Low since the aim is to make each region
more sustainable and self-sufficient. Rather
than people moving, the objective is to
improve standards of living elsewhere.
Drive to reduce disparities in income and
wealth. Assistance provided for lower-income
workers to buy property, etc.
Tendency to prefer higher quality of life, time
with family and friends, etc. to material goods
and services. Companies provide more
flexible work packages, allowing time out,
community-volunteering, etc.
Family and community-oriented values see an
upsurge. Environmental beliefs become more
widespread; lack of environmental concern
becomes less socially acceptable. Equality of
outcomes.
More localised and UK or near-continent
based tourism & leisure. Reduced aviationbased
tourism. The idea of ‘going on holiday’
replaced by ‘being on holiday’ in your own
locality.
Move away from global trade to local and
regional economic development.
Encouragement of SMEs serving local needs.
Science and technology become more
localised, slowing down pace of change.
Old skills in manufacturing re-activated by
need to supply local needs; return to
improved job security
Strong emphasis on community-based, lowpriced,
heavily-subsidised transport solutions,
with high charges for private car users and for
aviation.
Re-invigoration of the public health care
sector.
Environment is valuable for its own sake.
Less easily-quantified considerations such as
amenity value are taken into account in
development decisions. ‘Work with nature’
Prevention of excessive concentration of the
media. Encouragement of local to regional
media and community-based multi-media.