London scoping - ukcip

Final Report
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Medium-Low Emissions levels respectively. We now present in more detail how these worlds
would look.
6.2.1 Global Markets (GM)
This scenario could be described as ‘Dynamics as usual’ - very rapid economic growth,
population peaks mid-century; globalisation of economic relations and, to some extent, sociocultural
forms; market mechanisms dominate, accompanied by public choice approaches within
governance; reliance on fossil fuels. London continues to play key role as one of a handful of
global centres of capital and trading, and continues to dominate the UK economy. There would
be medium-high greenhouse gas emissions associated with this scenario, producing a
correspondingly high level of climate change, e.g. London summer temperatures 3°C above
1961-90 average by the 2050s and 4.5°C above by the 2080s.
6.2.2 Regional Sustainability (RS)
In this scenario, there is a significant shift in London away from the pursuit of economic growth
for its own sake, and a much greater emphasis on sustainability. Local solutions to local and
global problems are sought and there is encouragement of ‘green’ technologies and lifestyles.
London’s population stabilises by 2010 and then starts to decline slightly. Policies are put in
place to reduce inequality. There is a genuine attempt to reduce the ecological ‘footprint’ of
London. There would be medium-low greenhouse gas emissions associated with this scenario,
hence a ‘medium-low’ level of climate change, e.g. London summer temperatures 2.5°C above
the 1961-90 average by the 2050s, and 3.5°C above by the 2080s.
6.2.3 Using the Scenarios
Why, then, have we chosen to examine these two scenarios in detail? Firstly, we decided on the
basis of past experience, that examining all four scenarios was not practicable in the time
available. Secondly, we reasoned that ‘global markets’ and ‘regional enterprise’ are rather
similar scenarios in the London context, this being because London is already (along with
Tokyo and New York) a regional site of the global marketplace. Thirdly, we decided that
Regional Sustainability would be a more interesting, because it is a more challenging scenario
to explore than Global Sustainability. This is because for a mega-city such as London to
become sustainable on a regional basis is far more challenging than for it to do so globally
(where its high population density could allow trade-off with lower population density areas).
Examples of issues which can be considered in the socio-economic scenarios are:
Movement of people across and between countries, bringing with them fresh ideas,
new cultures and skills;
Change in incomes and wealth;
Changes in lifestyle and values, in the environmental imperative, and in
information technology will all have an effect;
Change in opinion and values that mean many people are more or less willing to
tolerate discrimination, the misuse of resources or pollution.