London scoping - ukcip

8.4.2 London Development Agency
Final Report
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The London Development Agency is a functional body of the Greater London Authority and is
responsible for:
• Furthering the economic development and regeneration of London;
• Promoting business efficiency, investment and competitiveness;
• Enhancing and developing the skills of local people; and
• Contributing to sustainable development.
London’s economy seems set to experience some significant changes in the coming decades.
As was discussed above, it is estimated that London’s economic growth could result in up to
636,000 additional jobs by 2016. Nearly 40% of this growth is expected to be in East London,
including the City and the Isle of Dogs - an area at risk from increased flooding. Continued
growth is expected in financial and business services with around 440,000 further jobs (the most
significant contribution to economic growth - over 50% of the total new jobs), along with
distribution, hotels and catering, retailing, health and education and other service sectors. The
public administration, primary/utilities and manufacturing sectors are expected to decline. It is
thought that because of these dynamics, the financial and business services sector could be
vulnerable to certain constraints such as undersupply of office accommodation, lack of suitably
skilled employees, inadequate transport and other infrastructure e.g. ICT and poor environment.
As has been discussed in previous sections these could be exacerbated by climate change. It has
been estimated that London could require 7-9.2 million square metres of new office space by
2016. The current stock is 26.7 million square metres. This is between a 26 and 34% increased
in office space - a further intensification that could contribute to increases in the climate related
phenomena such as the urban heat island effect. It is clear that climate change could have
significant impacts on key economic sectors including:
• Business interruptions due to infrastructure disruption e.g. flooding and elevated
temperatures affecting roads and rail and subsidence and soil shrinkage disrupting
power lines, ICT linkages.
• Deteriorating working conditions due to elevated temperatures and reduced air
quality exacerbated by increases in the urban heat island effect. This could lead to
reduced productivity and a reduction in the ability to attract and retain suitable
employees who might prefer to work in a more attractive environment.
• Reducing attractiveness of London as a business location leading to a reduction in
investment in London in preference to other cities that are either less vulnerable to
climate change or have invested in the necessary adaptations.
• Changing flooding patterns could affect or restrict the location of developments or
increase their costs because of the need for flood management provision. A large
proportion of the estimated development is expected to occur in East London, an
area that could be vulnerable to increased risk from flooding.
• Specific sectors may need to make significant investments in climate change
related infrastructure e.g. water companies, local authorities and the EA.