Fsnau-Post-Gu-2012-Technical-Report

3.2 civil insecurity
EVENTS
Civil insecurity continued to be one of the major contributing
factors to the food insecurity in Somalia. Since January this
year, displacements, restricted market and trade activities
and limited access to rangeland resources in certain parts
of the country continued to disrupt livelihoods and affect
food availability and access of the population, particularly
in southern regions.
The conflict between the Somali Federal Government (SFG)
supported by African Mission for Somalia (AMISOM) and
anti-government militias largely prevailed in South-Central 1 .
However, conflicts have been spreading since January to
other parts within these regions. The most affected areas
included Kismayo and Afmadow (Lower Juba), Afgoye,
Balcad and Marka (Shabelle), Baidoa (Bay) and Hudur
(Bakool). The government and its supporters have been
gaining ground and secured most of the towns above except
for Kismayo where fierce struggle for control is still ongoing.
In the Central region, recurrent incidents took place between
anti-government and pro-government militias, particularly in
Dhusamareeb and Ceelbuur of Galgaduud regions. Tensions
continue in all areas of the zone. In the northern regions, the
conflict between Somaliland government and local militias
over control of Buhodle district has also increased in the
reporting period.
The resource-based conflicts have persisted since 2006 in
parts of the key pastoral livelihoods in the central regions.
They have particularly affected, Xeraale of Abudwaq district,
Gelinsoor and Mirjicley of Adaado district and Camaara of
Hobyo districts. The conflict in Buhodle of Togdheer region
has also been resource-based driven, affecting the pastoral
livelihoods there.
DIRECT AND INDIRECT IMPACT
Population displacement
Civil insecurity continued to displace people, mostly from
the southern regions. According to UNHCR’s population
movement trends, an average of about 22,000 people were
displaced on a monthly basis from their homes between
January and July this year. Out of this total, more than
two-thirds or 70 percent of the people were displaced as a
result of insecurity. This is in sharp contrast to civil insecurity
accounting for only 30 percent of total displacements (30,000
people) in a similar period last year (Jan-Jul’12). The rise can
be explained by the massive displacement that took place
from the Ceelasha area and its related environs along the
1 Southern regions (Shabelles, Jubas, Bay, Bakool, Gedo and Hiran);
Central regions (Galgaduud and South-Mudug)
Map 8: Somalia Insecurity Outcomes/Projection,
Aug-Dec 2012
KENYA
±
30 15 0 30 60 90 120
Kilometers
DJIBOUTI
BORAMA !.
Gedo
M. Juba
L. Juba
GARBAHAREY
!.
BAIDOA
!.
!.
Awdal
NW (Buhodle)
M: Widespread
I: High
T: Worsening
Bay & Bakool
M: Limited
I: Medium/High
T: Worsening
Gedo
M: Widespread
I: Medium
T: Worsening
Woq. Galbeed
Bay
Bakol
!.
HARGEYSA BURAO
!.
!. HUDUR !
!.
Togdheer
BELET WEYNE
!.
Hiran
!. JOWHAR
Banadir
L. Shabelle
Shabelles
M: Limited/Widespread
KISMAAYO
!. I: Low/Medium
T: Worsening
Jubas
M: Widespread
I:Medium
T: Worsening
INSECURITY OUTCOMES
August - December, 2012
Hiran
M: Limited
I: Medium
T: Worsening
M. Shabelle
Technical Partner Funding Agencies
DUSAMAREB
!.
Galgadud
Banadir
M: Limited
I: Low
T: Improving
ERIGABO
!.
Sanag
LAS ANOD
!.
GAROWE
!.
GALKAYO
!.
Mudug
BOSSASO
!.
Swiss Agency for
Development and
Cooperation SDC
Mogadishu-Afgoye corridor, southwest of the capital, between
Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit - Somalia http://www.fsnau.org
P.O. Box 1230 Village Market, Nairobi, Kenya Email: fsauinfo@fsnau.org tel: 254-20-4000000 fax:254-20-4000555 FSNAU is managed by FAO
The boundaries and names on these maps do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. The regional & District boundaries reflect those endorsed by the Government of the Republic of Somalia in 1986.
February and July following the SFG and AMISOM offensive
against anti-government militias in the area. In August and
September, increasing displacements were observed from
Marka and Kismayo where the SFG and its allies were making
rapid advances.
Nearly two-thirds (62%) of the people displaced were from
Lower Shabelle (46%) and Banaadir (16%), with the rest
from other regions in the South. Most of the IDPs moved into
the southern regions, particularly to Banadir (40%), Lower
Shabelle (17%), Jubas (14%), Gedo (10%) and Bay (6%), while
about seven percent moved into the northern regions. The
recent increase in population displacement from Kismayo
(Lower Juba) is not fully reflected in these estimates, but
UNHCR reports that between 1 st June and 7 th September
about 3,500 left the port city and moved into the neighbouring
districts of Afmadow and Dhobley 2 .
In addition, UNHCR reported that as of 22 July 2012 about
45,000 people have crossed the borders into neighbouring
countries, including Ethiopia, Yemen, Uganda, Kenya, Djibouti
and Egypt. According to the report “as of 9 August 2012, there
were a total of about 1M Somali refugees in the region, mainly
hosted in Kenya, Yemen, and Egypt” 3
Sool
Nugal
2 UNHCR Kismayo PMT Report, 01 June – 07 September 2012
3 UNHCR’s Somalia Fact Sheet, August 2012
Bari
Galgadud
M: Limited
I: Medium
T: Unchanged
New Insecurity Epicentre
Insecurity Epicentre
c% Piracy Prone Areas
Civil Security Impact Category
High
Medium
Low
Mudug
M: Limited
I: Medium/High
T: Unchanged
Tension
M: Magnitude
I: Intensity
T: Trend
Origins and destination of the
population movements
Deportations from Bossaso
(Source: UNHCR 2010)
FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VI 48
Issued October 18, 2012
Sectors
19