Fsnau-Post-Gu-2012-Technical-Report

Regional Analysis
58
The population still remains highly vulnerable to shocks and
risk factors such as reduced access to humanitarian services,
reduced rainfall, high morbidity burden- reported AWD and
measles outbreaks, poor access to health care services and
sanitation, sub-optimal child feeding and care practices,
which all leave the population highly vulnerable.
Social Capital
In this Gu 2012, crop zakat was much below normal in Lower
Shabelle due to poor crop production in both riverine and
rain-fed areas, while it remained average in Middle Shabelle.
However, livestock zakat was much better than crop due to
the increase in herd size and normal body conditions of all
livestock species in both the regions. Remittances,(local
and from abroad) and resource sharing were common forms
of social support in this region. Collective communal asset
protection (rehabilitating irrigation canals, collaborating
to avert flooding and safeguarding of the common water
resources) was also observed.
Financial Capital
In this Gu, the cultivated area significantly declined (46% of
PWA - from 90,324ha to 41,500ha) in the Lower Shabelle
region. The cereal production was 28,000MT (45% of PWA
and 56% of 5 year average),the third lowest over a decade
(1995-2011). Thus, limited cereal stocks were available to
the poor households, while income from crop sales and
agricultural labour were also reduced. However, labour
migration opportunities to Mogadishu increased (40%) from
January 2011. In Middle Shabelle, the poor households had
access to income from cereal crop sales and agricultural
activities owing to a good Gu season (18,700MT of maize and
sorghum), which was 126 percent of PWA and 209 percent
of the 5-year average production. Significant cash crop (rice,
cowpea, sesame) of 4,700MT in both regions also provided
additional income source to the poor households. The
region is also prominent in producing other cash crops not
quantified during the assessment such as onions, tomatoes,
watermelon, potatoes, ground nuts etc.
EFFECTS ON LIVELIHOOD STRATEGIES
The poor households for both the riverine and agropastoral
livelihoods mainly depend on own cereal production (65-
80%), which is supplemented with food purchase (10-
20%) and own livestock production (0-15%). The poor
agropastorals earn 40-65 percent of their annual cash income
from employment (agricultural labour) and self-employment
(collection of bush products), while 5-20 percent is derived
from the sale of livestock products. The poor riverine
households earn over half of their annual income from
crop sale, followed by seasonal casual labour. The poor
pastoralists in both the regions obtain most of their annual
food requirements from food purchase supplemented by
own livestock products. Most of their annual income is driven
from livestock, livestock products and bush product sales.
FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VI 48
Issued October 18, 2012
Currently, food and livelihood security in both regions indicate
a significant improvement, due to increased own production,
improved terms of trade, increased labour opportunities (farm
labour) and humanitarian interventions.
Food Sources
Own Production: Although cereal production in L/Shabelle
was below normal, combined Deyr 2011/12 and Gu 2012 crop
production of the two regions (L/Shabelle and M/Shabelle) is
estimated to be above post war average (122,564MT) (Figure
30 and 39). Cereal stocks for most poor farmers in riverine
livelihoods of L/Shabelle (Sablale, Kurtunwarey and Afgoye)
are estimated to last for up to 5 months, while in Marka and
Qorioley for only 2-2.5 months. While Southern Agropastoral
(sorghum/cattle) in both regions have good stocks owing to
the good cereal production this season, most agropastoral
(maize/ cattle) in Lower Shabelle are relying more on market
purchase for food. Milk production improved in the Southern
Inland Pastoral livelihood because of improved livestock
production and reproduction.
Market Purchase: Availability of both locally produced and
imported cereals are normal in most markets in the two
regions as demonstrated by the declining cereal prices.
For instance, maize prices in June 2012 decreased by 67
percent compared to same time last year (Jun’11); they
remained stable compared to January. In August, the prices
declined (5%) owing to the little Gu harvest in the market.
Similarly, sorghum prices decreased by 60 and 32 percent
in the same periods, respectively while increasing (9%) in
August 2012 due to low Gu 2012 production. ToT levels in
all the livelihoods have improved because of decreased
cereal prices, access to labour opportunities and improved
livestock prices. For instance, ToT between daily labour
wage and maize has almost quadrupled from 3kg/daily in
June 2011 to 11kg//daily in June 2012 in Shabelle riverine,
while remaining unchanged since January 2012 and August
2012 (Figure 41 and 42). In Shabelle Riverine, ToT between
local quality goat and white maize was 289 percent higher
than last year (46-179kg/goat), but remained stable since
January 2012 ( 177 - 179kg/goat); the ToT increased (13%)
in August 2012 as the little Gu harvest made its way into
the market. Tot cattle/white maize increased by 7 percent
(from 621 to 669kg/head) in June 12 compared January, 292
percent( from 136 to669kg/head) compared to year ago and
8 percent in August.
Income Sources
This season, income from crop sales (cereal) dwindled in
Lower Shabelle due to poor cereal harvest. This income
option is only available in Middle Shabelle following a good
harvest. However, income from the livestock and livestock
products in both agropastoral and pastoral livelihoods in
both regions improved owing to favorable livestock prices.
Over the past one year (from Jun ’11 to Jun ’12), the price of
local quality goat increased significantly in Lower Shabelle