Fsnau-Post-Gu-2012-Technical-Report

Regional Analysis
56
4.3.4 LOwER AND MIDDLE ShABELLE
Overview
The food security situation in the Shabelle regions has continued to improve since last Deyr
2011/12. In the post Gu 2012, most rural livelihoods in Lower Shabelle region are in Stress
phase (IPC Phase 2). Similarly, in Middle Shabelle, all rural livelihoods are in Stress phase
except in Adan-Yabal and Adale districts (agropastoral livelihoods), which are classified
in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), indicating an improvement from Emergency phase (IPC Phase
4) from the post-Deyr 2011/12. In July 2012, the total number of rural population in acute
food security crisis (IPC Phases 3 and 4) in Shabelle were estimated at 100,000 people
(70,000 in Middle Shabelle and 30,000 in Lower Shabelle), representing a considerable
decline in both regions (Middle Shabelle - 55% and Lower Shabelle - 67%) from post-
Deyr 2011/12 levels. In the projection period, August-December 2012, the number of
rural population in acute food security crisis remains the same in Middle Shabelle, while a
further improvement is expected in Lower Shabelle region. In
urban areas, in August-December 2012 the estimates of the
number of people in food security crisis is projected at 100,000
people (30,000 people in Middle Shabelle with 15,000 Crisis
and 15,000 Emergency; 70,000 in Lower Shabelle in Crisis).
In Middle Shabelle, the improvements are largely due to average
Gu 2012 rains that resulted in good crop production; improved
pasture and water conditions; improved income opportunities
for both agriculture labour and livestock sales as well as,
improved purchasing power of the poor households. However,
Lower Shabelle, with exception of Southern Agropastoral of
Waleweyne that had a normal sorghum production, obtained
below normal cereal harvest this season as a result of below
normal Gu and Hagaa rains. The Gu 2012 cereal harvest was the third lowest for this region in over a decade (1995-2011).
Most of the better off wealth group and to a limited extent the middle wealth group either shifted to cash crop cultivation
or fodder production. In spite of this, cereal prices (maize) in all the markets of this region sustained low levels, a result of
the spillover effects of the previous good Deyr 2011/12 season as well as an average to above average cereal production
in Middle Shabelle.
See Appendix 5.4.2 for Footnotes
FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VI 48
Issued October 18, 2012
Shabelle and Cowpea
Belt Livelihood Systems
Table 22: Shabelle Region, Estimated Rural and Urban Population by District in Emergency and Crisis,
Aug-Dec 2012
Shabelle Dhexe (Middle)
District
UNDP 2005
Rural/Urban
Population
Map 16: Rural Food Security Phase Classification
Shabelle Region, Aug-Dec 2012
Stressed Crisis Emergency
Total in Crisis &
Emergency as % of
Rural population
Adan Yabaal 55,717 13,000 12,000 16,000 50
Balcad/Warsheikh 105,266 24,000 7,000 19,000 25
Cadale 35,920 7,000 7,000 11,000 50
Jowhar/Mahaday 222,167 72,000 0 0 0
Rural Sub‐total 419,070 116,000 26,000 46,000 17
Urban 95,831 0 30,000 0 31
Regional Total 514,901 116,000 56,000 46,000 20
Shabelle Hoose (Lower)
Afgooye/Aw Dheegle 178,605 44,000 0 0 0
Baraawe 42,239 8,000 0 0 0
Kurtunwaarey 48,019 13,000 0 0 0
Marka 129,039 37,000 0 0 0
Qoryooley 111,364 30,000 0 0 0
Sablaale 35,044 9,000 0 0 0
Wanla Weyn 133,627 44,000 0 0 0
Rural Sub‐total 677,937 185,000 0 0 0
Urban 172,714 0 71,000 0 41
Regional Total 850,651 185,000 71,000 0 8
GRAND TOTAL 1,365,552 301,000 127,000 46,000 13