Fsnau-Post-Gu-2012-Technical-Report

Table 23: Shabelle Region, Estimated Rural and Urban Population by Livelihood Zone in Emergency and Crisis,
Aug-Dec 2012
Shabelle Dhexe (Middle)
Livelihood Zone
Estimated Population
by Livelihood Zones
Stressed Crisis Emergency
Total in Crisis &
Emergency as % of
Rural population
Central Agro‐Pastoral 36,695 20,000 9,000 0 25
Coastal Deeh: sheep 46,861 0 17,000 0 36
Shabelle riverine 53,657 21,000 0 0 0
Southern Agro‐Past 160,948 56,000 0 0 0
Southern Inland Past 74,048 19,000 0 0 0
Destitute pastoralists 46,861 0 0 46,000 98
Sub‐total 419,070 116,000 26,000 46,000 17
Urban 95,831 0 30,000 0 31
Regional Total 514,901 116,000 56,000 46,000 20
Shabelle Hoose (Lower)
Coastal pastoral: goats & cattle 2,534 0 0 0 0
L&M Shabelle Agro‐Pastoral rain‐fed & irrigated 372,273 83,000 0 0 0
Shabelle riverine 115,552 46,000 0 0 0
South‐East Pastoral 35,475 8,000 0 0 0
Southern Agro‐Past 106,902 37,000 0 0 0
Southern Inland Past 45,201 11,000 0 0 0
Sub‐total 677,937 185,000 0 0 0
Urban 172,714 0 71,000 0 41
Regional Total 850,651 185,000 71,000 0 8
GRAND TOTAL 1,365,552 301,000 127,000 46,000 13
See Appendix 5.4.3 for Footnotes
No nutrition surveys were conducted in the Shabelle regions,
due to lack of access. The last surveys in the region were
done in July 2011. Due to lack of sufficient data, no nutrition
situation estimates were produced for the Shabelle regions.
However, data from health facilities in the region showed
a high (>30%) and stable trend of acutely malnourished
children among the Lower Shabelle agropastoral population.
There was also a declining trend (> 10%) of acutely
malnourished children amongst the riverine population.
EFFECTS ON LIVELIHOOD ASSETS
Natural Capital
Gu 2012 rainfall performance in Middle Shabelle was
average to above average. However, in most of Lower
Shabelle, rains were poor and erratic (40-60% of LTM)
except for Sablale and most parts of the Waleweyne districts.
The worst affected area was the Southern Coastal Pastoral
(L/Shabelle) which recorded rainfall estimates of 20-40
percent of the LTM. The situation was further aggravated
in L/Shabelle by a failed Hagaa season (Jul-Aug’12).
Nonetheless, pasture and water conditions in most areas
of the Shabelle regions was considered normal due to the
residual effect from the previous good Deyr 2011/12 coupled
with the average Gu rains in M/Shabelle and limited Gu rains
in L/Shabelle. The Shabelle River provided enough water
for both human and livestock consumption. Water prices
in most of Lower Shabelle Agropastoral increased (7%) in
June 2012 compared to the same time last year and in the
past six months (Jan’12). The main concern is the increasing
exploitation of natural resources through cutting of poles for
construction and recent extensive charcoal burning for export
and domestic use causing environmental degradation. It has
been banned particularly in the Juba area but its impact is
still aggravating the environmental conditions.
Physical Capital
The road infrastructure in both regions are rutted and in poor
condition. This makes them impassable during the rainy
periods. Despite the rehabilitation of some of the primary
and secondary canals in the Lower Shabelle region, , some
of the irrigation facilities remain in a poor state because of
a lack of rehabilitation. Of concern is the increasing silting
of the riverbeds and the weakening river embankments
that continue to exacerbate flooding incidents in both the
upper and lower river catchments. The invasive trees
(Prosopis Juliflora) continue to encroach into most feeder
and tarmac roads as well as the farmlands, thereby affecting
transportation and cultivation.
Human Capital
Many formal schools supported by International Non-
Governmental Organizations (INGOs) were operating in
the Merca, Qoryooley, Afgoye and Kurtunwaarey districts.
The suspension of agencies in the region has not affected
formal school attendance in these districts as communities
have maintained school service. There is in fact an increased
number of children attending primary school since last
year, and schools are available in both regions. No nutrition
surveys were conducted in the Shabelle regions, due to lack
of access and lack of sufficient data. Data from the health
facilities in the agropastoral livelihood areas indicates a
decreasing trend of admissions of acutely malnourished
children, and equally among the riverine population the data
indicates a declining trend of acutely malnourished children.
FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VI 48
Issued October 18, 2012
Regional Analysis
57