Fsnau-Post-Gu-2012-Technical-Report

Table 21: Bay and Bakool, Estimated Rural and Urban Population by Livelihood Zone in Emergency and
Crisis, Aug-Dec 2012
Bakool
Livelihood Zone
See Appendix 5.4.3 for Footnotes
Estimated Population
by Livelihood Zones
Stressed Crisis Emergency
Total in Crisis &
Emergency as % of
Rural population
Bakool Agro‐Pastoral 116,812 70,000 23,000 0 20
Bay‐Bakool Agro‐pastoral Low Potential 101,242 32,000 27,000 0 27
Southern Inland Past 31,135 6,000 6,000 0 19
Sub‐total 249,189 108,000 56,000 0 22
Urban 61,438 22,000 19,000 7,000 42
Bay
Regional Total 310,627 130,000 75,000 7,000 26
Bay Agro‐Pastoral High Potential 315,066 87,000 181,000 0 57
Bay‐Bakool Agro‐pastoral Low Potential 178,683 56,000 47,000 0 26
Sub‐total 493,749 143,000 228,000 0 46
Urban 126,813 26,000 37,000 0 29
Regional Total 620,562 169,000 265,000 0 43
GRAND TOTAL 931,189 299,000 340,000 7,000 37
normal. Medium to high lambing and kidding was observed
across all the livelihoods of these two regions in March and
April. As a consequence, there was increased herd growth
and better access to milk. Medium camel calving is expected
in the Deyr (Oct-Dec’12) in both pastoral and agropastoral
livelihoods and this is anticipated to increase the camel herd
size as well as milk access in both regions. It is not however
expected in the Bay Agropastoral High Potential livelihood
and furthermore because of the famine in 2011 the increment
in livestock herds is projected to be minimal. In all other
livelihoods however, the remaining cattle is in good condition
due to good pasture conditions. Medium level cattle calving
started in August and continued through September. The
purchasing power of pastoralists and agropastoralists was
also strengthened due to high increase of livestock prices
and low cereal prices.
The nutrition situation in the Bakool pastoral and Bay
agropastoral livelihood zones is in sustained Very Critical
phase since the Deyr 2010/11 with a very high GAM rate of
>20 percent recorded. However, the malnutrition rates have
declined from the extremely high (>45%) levels recorded in
Gu 2011, which is attributed to the improved food security
situation. In Bakool agropastoral however, a nutrition study
could not be conducted due to lack of access therefore
there is insufficient data to estimate the overall nutrition
situation – nevertheless secondary data on nutrition trends
at health facilities indicates high (>45%), and a stable trend
of acutely malnourished children. The worrying nutrition
situation is mainly attributed to persistent AWD outbreaks and
high morbidity. Further aggravating factors include chronic
problems of poor child feeding and health care practices and
limited humanitarian interventions in terms of safe water,
health and nutrition services, which predispose populations to
high morbidity (AWD/cholera) and consequent high levels of
acute malnutrition. Nevertheless, there was improved income
and food access because of increased agricultural activities
and the resultant availability of casual labour, social/diaspora
support, reduced cereal prices and increased livestock prices
as well as some humanitarian assistance. These factors may
have mitigated the situation.
EFFECTS ON LIVELIHOOD ASSETS
Natural Capital: The Gu 2012 seasonal rainfall performance
was below normal, in terms of amount and intensity, as
well as temporal and spatial distribution. While rangeland
conditions, particularly browse, in both regions remain in
good condition, indiscriminate cutting of trees for building
materials and charcoal production persist. Water is generally
available and accessible in both regions except for isolated
pockets in both regions.
Physical Capital: Road infrastructure remains in a
deplorable state affecting transport networks and trade
flows, particularly during rainy seasons. A significant number
of seasonal water catchment areas in the Bay region and
southern parts of the Bakool region are silted with poor
holding capacity.
Social Capital: The poor Gu 2012 performance affected the
social support base of the two regions. Poor agropastoral
households could not benefit from agricultural labour, crop
gifts or zakat after the seasonal harvests. The worst affected
were the poor agropastoralists in the Bakool region who in
addition to poor production, had no carry-over stock from
Deyr 2012. Although cereal stocks were still available in
the Bay region, access to zakat will still be difficult for the
poor agropastoral households because the current low crop
production is disincentive for the wealthier households to
support the poor.
Human Capital:
The Post Gu 2012 integrated nutrition situation analysis
using data from nutrition assessments, health and feeding
FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VI 48
Issued October 18, 2012
Regional Analysis
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