Fsnau-Post-Gu-2012-Technical-Report

and kidding (Mar-Apr’12) and a medium level calving of
cattle (Aug-Sep’12). This boosted household access to milk.
Expected high calving rates of camel in the Deyr 2012/13 will
also have a positive effect on food access, particularly for
pastoralists and agropastoralists in the Bakool region.
Market Purchase: Sorghum prices dipped between January
and June 2012 in both regions. Prices dropped by 18 percent
(from SoSh 7,500 to SoSh 6,125 per kg) in Bakool and by
32 percent (from SoSh 4,700 to SoSh 3,200 per kg) in Bay.
In June 2012, sorghum prices were the lowest they’ve been
in the last four to five years. However, because of the failure
of the Gu cereal production (Apr-Jun’12) in both the regions,
cereal prices had started increasing from July and are likely to
continue with the same trend until the next harvest (Jan’13).
By comparing the August prices to June (end of the Gu
season), sorghum prices showed an increase of 8 percent in
Bay and 55 percent in Bakool. The sharp increase of prices
in the Bakool region is attributable to the compounding effects
of poor production, lack of carry-over stocks and prevailing
insecurity that affected cereal supply to the markets. Existing
and growing demand for local cereals from other regions in
and across the country combined with the poor Gu harvest
were driving factors of cereal prices in the Bay region.
The purchasing power of pastoralists and agropastoralists
in both regions considerably strengthened this year. A big
reduction of local cereal prices and a significant increase in
livestock prices have led to the increase in the ToT (Figures
X and X). In June 2012, local quality goat fetched 422 kg of
cereal in Bay and 209 kg in Bakool, which is equivalent to 66
and 57 percent from the January ToT levels, respectively and
10 to 15 times higher than last year, when famine conditions
prevailed in these areas. However, due to increasing local
cereal prices triggered by poor Gu 2012 production, the ToT
levels had started to decline in July and by August 2012
the levels in Bakool reduced from the 209 kg to 128 kg per
local quality goat and in Bay from 422 kg to 403 kg. With the
anticipated increase in cereal prices in the coming months,
the ToT is also likely to reduce further assuming goat prices
will remain stable.
Figure 36: Gu Cereal Production Trends
(1995 – 2012) Bay
MT
100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Maize Sorghum PWA 5 year Avrg
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year
Income Sources
In the agropastoral areas, agricultural labour opportunities
in Gu 2012 were limited, significantly affecting the income
levels of the poor agropastoralists who significantly depend
on this source of income. Price of all livestock species in June
2012 indicated a considerable increase from the levels earlier
in the year (Jan’12) as well as from same period last year
(Jun’11). Driven by increased livestock demand preceding the
Hajj season, the local quality goat prices have increased by
15 percent and 29 percent in Bay and Bakool, respectively,
compared to January prices (SoSh 994,000/goat in Bakool
and SoSh 1,194,000 in Bay). The trend is similar for the
other livestock species. The good livestock conditions
and increased demand during Hajj suggest that livestock
prices will increase in the projection period. The forecast for
moderate El-Nino in the coming Deyr 2012 season, suggests
a normal cropping season in October-December 2012, hence
availability of farm labour opportunities for poor households
in Bay and Bakool regions.
Coping Strategies
Poor pastoralists are borrowing lactating animals and
obtaining live animals in the form of gifts from the wealthier
pastoralists. Poor agropastoralists are collecting and
gathering bush products for sale (construction poles,
firewood and charcoal). Other coping options include the
collection of wild foods, honey production (particularly in
Tieglow and Hudur), accelerated asset stripping (livestock),
and reduction in the frequency of meals. Labour migration
towards the Bay region and urban areas in Puntland is also
reported.
Figure 37: Terms of Trade Goat to Red Sorghum
Prices - Baidoa
Figure 38: Terms of Trade Local Quality Goat to Red
Sorghum Prices - Huddur
FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VI 48
Issued October 18, 2012
Regional Analysis
55