Fsnau-Post-Gu-2012-Technical-Report

Sectors
24
Local cereal prices (maize and sorghum) showed a declining
trend in the first half of 2012 in most markets of southern
Somalia. The aggregated maize prices in the Juba and
Shabelle regions declined by 57% and 67% respectively;
the price of this commodity has also dropped by 47% and
57% in the Gedo and Hiran regions in the same period.
The main cause of this change was ascribed to increased
supplies from food assistance and good cereal production
in the Deyr 2011/12 season in most regions. In the same
period, the Maize/Sorghum prices surged by 50 percent in
the Dobley markets (Juba region) due to insecurity which
affected trade flow into the area.
Sorghum prices have also shown a declining trend in most
markets of the Sorghum Belt. Prices decreased in most
markets of the Bay and Bakool regions by 18-31 percent,
and in the Hiran region (Beledweyn) by 30 percent in June
2012 when compared to January 2012. The highest sorghum
prices in June 2012 were recorded in the Belet Hawa (Gedo)
market, followed by El-wak (Gedo). In contrast, the lowest
sorghum prices were in Dinsoor and Qansahdere of Bay
region.
Similarly, decreases in red sorghum prices were recorded
in the main markets of Central region. The price of red
sorghum in the Central region went down by 32 percent
while in Northeast, the price increased slightly (2%) from
last June 2011.
In the Northwest markets, the prices of white sorghum have
shown a decreasing trend between June 2011 and June
2012 by 6-20 percent, except in the Lowaya-Adde market,
which increased by 16 percent because is very far from the
main producing areas (supply centres).
Average regional cereal prices increased moderately in
Gedo (17%), Bay(9%), and Hiran(7%), over the month of
August 2012. However, in the Hudur market of Bakool region,
the prices surged significantly (24%) as a result of restricted
trade movement in and out of the town due to insecurity.
Remarkably, sorghum prices slightly decreased (13%) in
central regions.
Anticipated poor Gu 2012 harvest in the South was one of
the major driving factors in the local cereal price trends of
the past months. Compared to a year ago, cereal prices are
considerably lower in the South and Central zones and more
stable in the North. In the context of poor cereal production,
decreases in relief interventions in the South and Central
may result in increased prices of cereals
FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VI 48
Issued October 18, 2012
Cereal Flow
In southern Somalia, Bay region is the major supplier of
red sorghum to the markets. Trade movement of this item
usually passes along one of two routes: (1) cereal traders
transport local sorghum from the Bay region to Mogadishu,
then it gets distributed to other regions such as central and
northern; (2) traders transport sorghum from the producing
regions directly to Central, Northeast and Northwest regions
via Beletweyn. Maize flow is generally from the Shabelle
region to the markets in Mogadishu, Hiran and Bay (Map
9). However, during this Gu 2012 cereal flow trends have
changed due to declined demand in most consumption
markets (Mogadishu and other regions), declined imported
food prices in most markets because of food aid intervention
and; of course low Gu 2012 cereal production in most
regions of southern Somalia.
Cereal imports from cross border trade significantly
increased in the first half of the year. The total cross-border
cereal inflows amounted to 3,291_MT, from Kenya (white
maize) through Dhobley and Belet Hawa and; from Ethiopia
(red sorghum) through Galdogob, Buhoodle, Wajale and
Beletweyn. The cereal (maize and sorghum) outflows
amounted to 737MT (Source: FEWSNET/FAO/WFP Regional
Joint Cross Border Market and Trade Monitoring Eastern
Africa initiative).
Map 9: Somalia Somalia: Cereal GU Flow 2012 Local Cereal Flow Map
DJIBOUTI
Awdal
"
"
Berbera
! "
"
Borama
!.
"
!< Gebiley
Oodweyne
" !< Hargeysa
Burco
! !. ! !.
"
Ceel Barde
! "
Woq. Galbeed
|
^_
ETHIOPIA
Togdheer
Bakol
Beled Weyne
! !.
Gulf of Aden
"
Doolow
! "
"
Belet Xawo Luuq
"
! !
"
Xudur
! !.
Tayeglow
! "
Hiran
Galcad
!
Buulobarde M. Shabelle
! "
Aden Yabaal "
! "
Jalalaqsi
GARBAHAREY
"
"
!.
!
Baydhaba
!.
Gedo !<
Qansax Dheere
" Jowhar
! "
Cadale
"
!.
" ^_ !
"
|
"
"
!
!
"
Diinsor
Warsheikh
Baar-Dheere
! |
" Banadir Mogadishu
Qoryooley
M. Juba
^_ |
" Merka
Saakow
! !.
!
^_
"
" |
Bay L. Shabelle
Bu'aale
"
!. !
LEGEND
Cereal Markets
!< Major Sorghum market
^_ Major Maize Market
Cereal Flow Pattern
Local Sorghum
Local Maize
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"
Afmadow
! "
"
L. Juba
Jamaame
" ^_
!.
"
Regional Capital
District Capital
Kismayo !. ! |
Major Road
Coastline
"
± 50
District Boundary
Regional Boundary
International Boundary
50 0 100 150 200
25
|
Kilometers
River
Technical Partner Funding Agencies
Swiss Agency for
Development and
Cooperation SDC
Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit - Somalia http://www.fsnau.org
P.O. Box 1230 Village Market, Nairobi, Kenya Email: fsauinfo@fsnau.org tel: 254-20-4000000 fax:254-20-4000555 FSNAU is managed by FAO
The boundaries and names on these maps do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. The regional & District boundaries reflect those endorsed by the Government of the Republic of Somalia in 1986.
Mombasa Port
Limited cereal ouflow
and inflow
Kenya
"
"
"
"
!.
"
|
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Ceerigaabo
! !.
"
"
Sanag
Sool
"
!. ! Laascanood Garowe!
!.
"
Galkacyo
! !.
Galgadud
"
"
" Xarardheere
BOSSASO Bossaso
!. !
"
Hobyo
! "
|
|
"
Nugal
Mudug
"
"
Bari
Indian Ocean
"
"
"