Fsnau-Post-Gu-2012-Technical-Report

Regional Analysis
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4.3.6 CENTRAL REGIONS
Overview
In this post-Gu season, the food security situation showed a slight improvement in the
Central regions but a large number of the population, estimated at 165,000 people, still
remains in food security crisis. Currently, the total rural population in acute food insecurity
phases of Crisis and Emergency are estimated at 125,000 people, which is a 7 percent
decrease from post-Deyr 2011/12 (135,000 people). Out of the affected rural population,
70,000 people are in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), while 55,000 people are in Crisis
(IPC Phase 3). The number of affected people in the urban areas has maintained Deyr
2011/12 levels at 40,000. Over the projected period (Aug–Dec’12), the number of affected
people in urban areas is likely to increase to 45,000 of which 40,000 people will be in
Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and 5,000 people will be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Hawd and
Addun livelihoods are currently in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) phase while the Cowpea Belt
and Costal Deeh livelihoods sustained their previous season’s
food security phase classifications (Crisis and Emergency,
respectively).
The improvements in the food security situation can be
partly attributed to an average Gu seasonal performance in
Hawd, Addun and parts of the Cowpea Belt. This improved
the rangeland conditions and increased livestock and milk
production, particularly in Hawd and Addun. There was also
strengthened purchasing power as a result of high livestock
prices and reduced cereal prices and an increased humanitarian
presence in the region that had a positive impact on Hawd and
Addun livelihoods.
The sustained food insecurity in Coastal Deeh (Emergency)
and the Cowpea Belt (Crisis) can be attributed to successive
seasons of drought in the past compounded by poor Gu rainfall performance. This led to poor rangeland conditions, poor
milk production, low camel calving and limited livestock holding; exacerbated by high levels of debt (USD177), constrained
access to social support and the presence of destitute pastoralists. Although the number of destitute pastoralists seeking
alternative income sources in urban areas and villages remained high, there were about 25-30 percent who reportedly
returned to the original livelihood to try rebuild their livelihoods through kinship support. In August-December 2012, the
food security phase is projected to remain unchanged in all the livelihoods. Despite positive projections including good
FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VI 48
Issued October 18, 2012
Central Region Livelihood
Systems
Table 26: Central Regions, Estimated Rural and Urban Population by District in Emergency and Crisis,
Aug-Dec 2012
District
UNDP 2005
Rural/Urban
Population
Stressed Crisis Emergency
Total in Crisis &
Emergency as % of
Rural population
South Mudug
Gaalkacyo 24,860 5,000 2,000 1,000 12
Hobyo 54,438 10,000 9,000 14,000 42
Xarardheere 52,157 14,000 10,000 14,000 46
Rural Sub‐total 131,455 29,000 21,000 29,000 38
Urban 80,997 2,000 23,000 7,000 37
Regional Total 212,452 31,000 44,000 36,000 38
Galgaduud
Cabudwaaq 32,654 6,000 1,000 4,000 15
Cadaado 36,304 7,000 2,000 4,000 17
Ceel Buur 66,274 17,000 11,000 3,000 21
Ceel Dheer 61,407 22,000 13,000 18,000 50
Dhuusamarreeb 74,441 10,000 9,000 6,000 20
Rural Sub‐total 271,080 62,000 36,000 35,000 26
Urban 58,977 11,000 16,000 0 27
Regional Total 330,057 73,000 52,000 35,000 26
CENTRAL GRAND TOTAL 542,509 104,000 96,000 71,000 31
See Appendix 5.4.2 for Footnotes
Map 18: Rural Food Security Phase Classification
Central Region, Aug-Dec 2012