Fsnau-Post-Gu-2012-Technical-Report

Regional Analysis
52
4.3.3 BAY AND BAkOOL
Overview
The food security situation in the rural livelihoods of Bay and Bakool has improved since
Deyr 2011/12, except for the Bay Agropastoral High Potential livelihood where the situation
has deteriorated following the Gu 2012 crop failure. In July 2012, the total numbers of rural
population in acute food security crisis (IPC Phase 3 and 4) was estimated at 230,000
in the Bay region and 80,000 in the Bakool region. This indicates a 17 percent increase
in Bay and 43 percent decline in Bakool from the estimates in the post-Deyr 2011/12
(Feb-Jun ’12). All livelihoods are identified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) apart from Southern
Inland Pastoral, which is in the Stressed phase (IPC Phase 2). In urban areas, the total
numbers of population in acute food security crisis was estimated at 35,000 people in Bay
region and 25,000 people in Bakool. This indicates a 22 percent decline in Bay region
while the numbers did not change significantly in Bakool from the estimates in the post-
Deyr 2011/12. In the projection period (Aug-Dec’12), the numbers of rural population
in IPC Phase remains the same as in the Bay region while it
decreased by 31 percent in the Bakool region to an estimated
55,000 people. In the same projection period, the numbers of
urban population in crisis remain the same, that is 35,000 people
in Bay and 25,000 people in Bakool.
Factors contributing to the current food security situation
in these two regions include: poor Gu cereal production,
limited agricultural labour opportunities and overstretched
social support (crop gifts and zakat). Bay Agropastoral High
Potential livelihood was worst affected this season because
their main food and income source is from farming rather than
livestock production. However, in spite of the poor seasonal
performance, the rangeland conditions remained favourable
owing to the residual effect from the previous good Deyr
2011/11. Livestock body condition and productivity remained
See Appendix 5.4.2 for Footnotes
FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VI 48
Issued October 18, 2012
Sorghum Belt
Livelihood Systems
Table 20: Bay and Bakool, Estimated Rural and Urban Population by District in Emergency and Crisis,
Aug-Dec 2012
District
UNDP 2005
Rural/Urban
Population
Map 15: Rural Food Security Phase Classification
Bay and Bakool Regions, Aug-Dec 2012
Stressed Crisis Emergency
Total in Crisis &
Emergency as % of
Rural population
Bakool
Ceel Barde 23,844 4,000 5,000 0 21
Rab Dhuure 31,319 17,000 6,000 0 19
Tayeeglow 64,832 29,000 15,000 0 23
Waajid 55,255 24,000 13,000 0 24
Xudur 73,939 34,000 17,000 0 23
Rural Sub‐total 249,189 108,000 56,000 0 22
Urban 61,438 22,000 19,000 7,000 42
Regional Total 310,627 130,000 75,000 7,000 26
Bay
Baydhaba/Bardaale 247,670 71,000 119,000 0 48
Buur Hakaba 100,493 30,000 42,000 0 42
Diinsoor 63,615 18,000 29,000 0 46
Qansax Dheere 81,971 24,000 38,000 0 46
Rural Sub‐total 493,749 143,000 228,000 0 46
Urban 126,813 26,000 37,000 0 29
Regional Total 620,562 169,000 265,000 0 43
GRAND TOTAL 931,189 299,000 340,000 7,000 37