Fsnau-Post-Gu-2012-Technical-Report

Regional Analysis
50
Average cattle body Condition. Waraaba Guba, Buale,
Middle Juba, FSNAU, July 2012
was eight percent lower than June 2011; it increased (33%)
in January 2012 and (24%) in August 2012. The improving
trend is mainly due to the expected off-season and the
coming Deyr 2012 activities. Reduced cattle and goats herd
sizes were observed, as result of past drought seasons, They
are projected to remain below baseline levels (48 and 62%,
respectively). However, camel herd sizes in the Southern
Inland Pastoral livelihood are expected to increase (24%)
above their baseline levels by the end of December 2012. In
addition, owing to the closure of the Kenya/Somalia border
following military operations, commodity flow and livestock
trade in the Garissa market has been hampered. The level of
indebtedness among the poor household is high (USD100),
and is expected to increase or remain the same in Deyr
2012/13. The disruption of Kismayo port activities since June
2012 has also caused a decline in trade activities and loss
of income from charcoal export. Humanitarian interventions
were also limited in some parts (Afmadow/Badhaade).
EFFECTS ON LIVELIHOOD STRATEGIES
There are 3 main livelihoods in the Juba regions; pastoral
(cattle with sheep/goat and camel with sheep/goat),
agropastoral (cattle or camel with rain fed maize or sorghum)
and riverine (maize and cash crops). In a normal season,
the main sources of food in the two regions include own
cereal production for the riverine (60-65%) followed by
livestock production, followed by market purchases (25-
30%). Normally, poor agropastoral households obtain 60–70
percent of annual food requirements from crop and livestock
production followed by food purchases of 30–40 percent.
Poor households in agro pastoral livelihoods earn about
50 percent of their annual cash income from employment
(agricultural labour, portering, herding, construction labour
and petty trade) and self-employment (sale of bush products
and charcoal). An additional 25–35 percent of income comes
from the sale of livestock and livestock products (milk,
ghee and hides/skins), while the remaining 20 percent is
derived from crop production sales, remittances or gifts.
Poor pastoralists obtain about 80 percent of their annual
food requirements from food pur chase supplemented by
FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VI 48
Issued October 18, 2012
own livestock products. Most of their cash income is derived
from livestock and livestock products (74%) followed by bush
product sales (21%) and cash gifts (5%).
Food Sources
Own Production: Cereal production (maize and sorghum)
in the Jubas is far below the PWA and 5-year average,
affecting the cereal stocks for the majority of the poor
farming community. However, access to milk from cattle
has improved in the two regions due to high calving and
kidding rates as well as average pasture conditions in the
key pastoral areas.
Market Purchase: The riverine livelihoods are relying more
on food purchases because of the current crop failure. In
Middle Juba, maize prices from the Buale and Jilib markets
recorded in June 2012 decreased by 70 percent compared
to the same month the previous year; 36 percent compared
to six months ago (Jan’12) and by 25 percent in August
2012. This is attributable to stocks from the previous (March-
April) and current offseason harvest (Sep’-Oct’12). In Lower
Juba, maize prices in the Jamamme, Hagar, Kismayo and
Afmadow markets also decreased by 54 percent in June
2012 compared to June 2011; by 24 percent compared to
January 2012 and increased by 33 percent in August 2012
due to insecurity and the difficulty of access to the market.
The reduction in cereal prices is reflected in the ToT between
daily labour and white maize in the riverine areas of Middle
Juba; by 233 percent (3kg/daily to 10kg/daily) compared to
June 2011; 150 percent since January 2012 (4kg/daily to
10kg daily) and 80 percent in August 2012 (10kg/daily to
18kg daily) . In the Lower Juba region, the ToT between
daily labour to white maize in the riverine areas increased
by 175 percent (4kg/daily to 11kg/daily) compared to June
2011, 57 percent since January 2012 (7kg/daily to 11kg
daily) but declined by 9 percent in August 2012 (10kg/daily
to 7kg daily) as a result of the increased maize price (33%)
. Off-season agriculture labour opportunities are forecasted
to remain low until the beginning of the Deyr 2012 farming
activities. In the pastoral and agropastoral livelihoods of
Middle Juba (Buale market), ToT between local quality goat
to white maize has increased by 526 percent (19kg/head in
Jun’11 to 119kg/head in Jun’12) and by 63 percent (73kg/
head to 119kg/head) compared to January 2012; and by 41
percent in August 2012 (119kg/head to 168kg/head). This is
mainly due to the decrease of maize prices and increase of
livestock prices. Similarly, in the pastoral and agropastoral
livelihoods of Lower Juba (Hagar, Kismayo and Afmadow
markets) ToT between local quality goat to white maize has
increased by 368 percent (31kg/head in Jun’11 to 145kg/
head in Jun’12) and by 91 percent (76kg/head to 145kg/
head) compared to January 2012. However, it declined in
August 2012 by 21 percent (145kg/head to 114kg/head).
This is mainly due to the increase of maize price (33%) as
a result of the volatile security situation.