Fsnau-Post-Gu-2012-Technical-Report

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Table of contents vi Map 1: Somalia Acute Food Insecurity Overview, July 2012 4 Map 2: Somalia Acute Food Insecurity Overview, Most Likely Scenario, Aug - Dec 2012 5 Map 3: Somalia Gu ‘12 Assessment Field Coverage 12 Map 4: Cumulative Rainfall Apr-Jun 2012 16 Map 5: Percent of Normal Rainfall Apr-June 2012 from LTM 16 Map 6: August 2012 NDVI Difference from LTM 17 Map 7: Climate Outlook Forum - Gu 2012 Rainfall Forecast 17 Map 8: Somalia Insecurity Outcomes/Projection, Aug-Dec 2012 19 Map 9: Somalia Cereal Flow 24 Map 10: Somalia, Rangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration, Gu ’12 26 Map 11: Somalia Nutrition Situation, August 2012 33 Map 12: Somalia Nutrition Situation, Sep-Nov 2012 33 Map 13: Rural Food Security Phase Classification Gedo, Aug-Dec 2012 44 Map 14: Rural Food Security Phase Classification - Juba, Aug-Dec 2012 48 Map 15: Rural Food Security Phase Classification Bay and Bakool Regions, Aug-Dec 2012 52 Map 16: Rural Food Security Phase Classification Shabelle Region, Aug-Dec 2012 56 Map 17: Rural Food Security Phase Classification Hiran, Aug-Dec 2012 60 Map 18: Rural Food Security Phase Classification Central Region, Aug-Dec 2012 64 Map 19: Rural Food Security Phase Classification Northeast, Aug-Dec 2012 68 Map 20: Rural Food Security Phase Classification Northwest, Aug-Dec 2012 72 FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VI 48 Issued October 18, 2012 LIST OF MAPS LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Time-series data of NDVI/RFE Standardized Difference from the LTM for riverine areas of Marka (Lower Shabelle) showing a significant positive deviation from normal in Gu ‘12 compared to the previous two seasons (Gu ‘11 and Deyr ‘11/’12) 17 Figure 2: Trends in Gu Rainfall Performance and NDVI 18 Figure 3: Average Monthly Population Movements (22,000) - January to July 2012 20 Figure 4: Somali Refugees by most countries (July 2012) 20 Figure 5: Gu Cereal Production Trends (1995-2012) 21 Figure 6: Regional Contribution of Maize Production Gu ‘12 in the North 22 Figure 7: Regional Contribution of Sorghum Production Gu ‘12 Southern Somalia 22 Figure 8: Regional Trends in Cattle Local Quality Prices (SOSH/SLSH) 28 Figure 9: Regional Trends in Local Quality Goat Prices (SOSH/SLSH) South 28 Figure 10: Regional Trends in Local Quality Goat Prices (SOSH/SLSH) North and Central 28 Figure 11: Comparison of Rice Prices (Bangkok FOB), Mogadishu and Bossaso 30 Figure 12: Comparison of Diesel Prices (Asia Dubai), Mogadishu and Bossaso 31 Figure 13: Consumer Price Index 31 Figure 14: Global Acute and Severe Acute Malnutrition, (WHZ < 2 and 3 z Scoresor Oedema) April- July 2012 – Somalia 32 Figure 15: Median wasting rates, WHOGS (WAZ
Figure 41: Trends in Terms of Trade Daily Labour Rates to White Maize 1Kg (Lower Shabelle) 59 Figure 42: Trends in Terms of Trade Daily Labour Rates to White Maize 1Kg (Middle Shabelle Riverine) 59 Figure 43: Trends of Gu Cereal Production in Hiran region 62 Figure 44: Trends in White Sorghum Prices (Hiran) 62 Figure 45: Terms of Trade Daily Labour Rate to White Sorghum 1Kg 62 Figure 46: Terms of Trade Goat Local Quality to White Sorghum 63 Figure 47: Trends in Terms of Trade Goat Local Quality to Imported Red Rice 1kg Central Regions 67 Figure 48: Terms of Trade Labour to Red Sorghum 1Kg (Bossaso and Garowe) 71 Figure 49: Terms of Trade Goat Local Quality to Imported Red Rice 1Kg (Garowe) 71 Figure 50: Gu-Karan Cereal Production (1998-2012) 75 Figure 51: Trends in Terms of Trade Local Quality To Imported Red Rice 1Kg – Burao 76 Figure 53: Percent of men’s income from diferrent sources in Mogadishu 78 Figure 54: Percent of women’s income from diferrent sources in Mogadishu 78 AFLC Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis ARI Acute Respiratory Infection BFI Borderline Food Insecurity CBS Cereal Balance Sheet CMB Cost of Minimum Expenditure Basket CMR Crude Mortality Rate CPI Consumer Price Index FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FEWS/NET Famine Early Warning Systems Network FSNAU Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit GAM Global Acute Malnutrition HA Hectare HE Humanitarian Emergency HRG Humanitarian Response Group ICRC International Committee of the Red Cross IDP Internally Displaced Persons IDS Integrated Database System IASC Inter Agency Standing Committee LZ Livelihood Zone LTA Long Term Average MCH Maternal and Child Health Centre MEB Minimum Expenditure Basket MT Metric Tonne MUAC Mid Upper Arm Circumference NDVI Normalized Difference Vegetation Index SPECIAL ARTICLES Evolution Of Food Security And Nutrition Situation in Somalia (since Famine 2011) 134 LIST OF ACRONYMS OCHA Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs PCCC Per Capita Cereal Consumption PHL Post Harvest Losses PWA Post War Average PMT Population Movement Tracking SAM Severe Acute Malnutrition SLIMS Somali Livelihood Indicator Monitoring System SlSh Somaliland Shilling SoSh Somali Shilling SSR Self Sufficiency Ratio TFC Thearupeutic Feeding Centre TFG Transitional Federal Government ToT Terms of Trade U5 Under Five US United States UAE United Arab Emirates UNDP United Nations Development Programme WFH Weight for Height WFP World Food Programme IGAD The International Authority on Development UNDSS United Nations Department of Safety and Security ICPAC IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Center AMISOM African Union Mission for Somalia FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VI 48 Issued October 18, 2012 Tabe of contents vii
Page 1 and 2: Technical Partners Swiss Agency for
Page 3 and 4: Acknowledgement FSNAU would like to
Page 5: 5.11.4 Livestock Herd Dynamics Juba
Page 9 and 10: 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1.1 KEY FINDIN
Page 11 and 12: Table 3: Distribution of Rural and
Page 13 and 14: Map 2: Somalia Acute Food Insecurit
Page 15 and 16: over the last 12 months. However, l
Page 17 and 18: and 4) was estimated at 100,000 (5,
Page 19 and 20: security situation of the poor past
Page 21 and 22: Table 4: Overview of Gu 2012 Assess
Page 23 and 24: Adoption of IPC Technical Manual Ve
Page 25 and 26: Figure 1: Time-series data of NDVI/
Page 27 and 28: 3.2 civil insecurity EVENTS Civil i
Page 29: 3.3 agriculture Area Cultivated und
Page 32 and 33: Sectors 24 Local cereal prices (mai
Page 34 and 35: Sectors 26 3.4 livestocK sector Bac
Page 36 and 37: Sectors 28 Livestock Trade and Pric
Page 38 and 39: Sectors 30 3.5 marKets and trade Ex
Page 40 and 41: Sectors 32 3.6 nutrition situation
Page 42 and 43: Urban Analysis 34 Evolution of food
Page 44 and 45: Urban Analysis 36 4. intEGrAtEd foo
Page 46 and 47: Urban Analysis 38 Social Capital So
Page 48 and 49: IDP Analysis 40 Given the security
Page 50 and 51: IDP Analysis 42 Figure 23: Sources
Page 52 and 53: Regional Analysis 44 4.3 SOMALIA’
Page 54 and 55: Regional Analysis 46 decreased by 2
Page 56 and 57:
Regional Analysis 48 4.3.2 LOwER AN
Page 58 and 59:
Regional Analysis 50 Average cattle
Page 60 and 61:
Regional Analysis 52 4.3.3 BAY AND
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Regional Analysis 54 facilities cla
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Regional Analysis 56 4.3.4 LOwER AN
Page 66 and 67:
Regional Analysis 58 The population
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Regional Analysis 60 4.3.5 hIRAN RE
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Regional Analysis 62 in addition to
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Regional Analysis 64 4.3.6 CENTRAL
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Regional Analysis 66 These househol
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Regional Analysis 68 4.3.7 NORThEAS
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Regional Analysis 70 Physical Capit
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Regional Analysis 72 4.3.8 NORThwES
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Regional Analysis 74 Table 31: Nort
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Regional Regional Analysis 76 Avera
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Among the Mogadishu IDP women, food
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5. Appendices 5.1.1 BAcKGROUnd And
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Appendices 83 Acute Food Insecurity
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Appendices 85 5.2.1 Time-Series of
Page 95 and 96:
5.2.2 Time-Series of the Integrated
Page 97 and 98:
5.3.2 Progression of Rural Humanita
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5.3.4 progression of Rural Humanita
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5.3.6 progression of Rural Humanita
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5.3.8 progression of the Rural Huma
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5.3.9 Progression of Rural Humanita
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5.3.10 Progression of Rural Humanit
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5.4.2 estimated RURAL population in
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5.4.3 estimated URBAn population in
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5.4.4 estimated RURAL population in
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5.6 LisT OF pARTneRs WHO pARTicipAT
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5.7 post Gu ‘12 Food security sea
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5.9 post Gu ‘12 IDP Matrix FCS -
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5.10.3 Livestock Herd dynamics cent
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8 9 What was the main reason for th
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8.1 b. Cattle c. Sheep d. Goat e. p
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5.12.3 Key informant/Focus Groups Q
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observed mostly? 6.7 What triggered
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Jan 2011- now a. Camels b. Cattle c
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5.12.5 cereal Flow survey THe FOOd
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9. Has there been any cereal outflo
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2 2.3 What was the source of the se
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4 4. 0 CROP CONDITION 4.1 What is t
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5.12.7 Gu ‘12 season crop Assesme
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4. FERTILIZER 4.1 a) Did the majori
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6.5 What were the crop production c
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5.12.8 idp Household survey Questio
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3.5 Did your household receive any
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Page 2 of 7 5.12.9 idp Assessment Q
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4 LIVELIHOOD STRATEGIES 4.1 What we
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school in the last three months wha
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3.2 What was the source of income o
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Page 1 of 1 5.12.11 Urban FGd south
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5. Casual/labour wage (from portage
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2.2. What was the source of income
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Part 1: Analysis of Current Imminen
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their dietary needs, and food prefe
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Rapid assessment: undertaken follow
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FSNAU Technical Series Report No. V
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Fsnau-Post-Gu-2012-Technical-Report

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