Fsnau-Post-Gu-2012-Technical-Report

Income Sources
Income from crop sales in the riverine areas reduced owing
to a decline in crop yield as well as limited agricultural labour
opportunities. There is no expected off-season cash crop
harvest for the riverine community besides limited cereal
crop. Income sources generally include agriculture labour for
off-season and incoming Deyr 2012/13, self-employment and
unskilled labor in the urban centers. Livestock prices have
significantly increased during the season due to good livestock
body condition. In June 2012, the local quality goat price in
Juba increased from June 2011 (109%), from January 2012
(26%) and 14 percent in August 2012. Similarly, the local quality
cattle prices indicate an increase of 90 percent from June 2011
to June 2012 and a 15 percent increase from January 2012.
This is mainly due to high demand locally and the improved
pasture and water as the Gu rains improved dry pasture from
the last Deyr 2011/12. There was a decline (12%) in August
2012 caused by intensified fighting along the Kenya-Somalia
border. Cattle milk production has improved across the two
regions for both the pastoral and agropastoral livelihoods and
there has been increased income from milk sales. However,
Kismayo port activities have declined due to the instability
(military incursion in the area) affecting trade flows.
Figure 29: Trends in Gu Cereal Production
(1995-2012) Middle Juba
MT
MT
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
5,000
0
0
Maize Sorghum PWA 5 year Avrg
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Figure 30: Trends in Gu Cereal Production
(1995-2012) Lower Juba
Maize Sorghum PWA 5 year Avrg
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year
Year
Coping Strategies
There are limited coping options available in Juba. In the
riverine and agropastoral livelihoods, the poor households’
income from charcoal sales has significantly dropped owing
to a decrease in charcoal production and export due to the
insecurity in both regions. The agropastoral and pastoral
communities are extensively selling livestock to meet food
requirements and the poor pastoral households are moving to
refugee camps. Humanitarian assistance may have mitigated
the situation.
Figure 31: Terms of Trade between Daily Labour Rate
to White Maize (1kg) in Middle Juba Riverine
Figure 32: Terms of Trade between Daily Labour Rate
to White Maize (1Kg) in Lower Juba
Figure 33: Terms of Trade between Local Quality Goat
to White Maize (1Kg) in Middle Juba Riverine
Figure 34: Terms of Trade between Local Quality Goat
to White Maize (1Kg) in Lower Juba
FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VI 48
Issued October 18, 2012
Regional Analysis
51