Fsnau-Post-Gu-2012-Technical-Report

Regional Analysis
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4.3.2 LOwER AND MIDDLE JUBA REGIONS
Overview
Post Gu 2012, the total number of rural people in acute food security crisis (IPC phases
3 and 4) is estimated at 100,000 (5,000 in Emergency and 95,000 in Crisis), indicating
a 41 percent reduction from the estimates from post-Deyr. The areas in Crisis include
South-East Pastoral, Southern Agropastoral, Lower Juba Agropastoral and the Juba
riverine livelihoods of both regions. However, improvements are visible in the Southern
Inland Pastoral (camel herders), which has remained in the Stressed phase as it was in
the previous Deyr season. The positive changes discerned in the food security situation
are largely attributable to the previous Deyr (2011/12) season, which significantly improved
the overall rangeland conditions. Resultantly there were improvements in: livestock body
conditions, livestock prices and milk production. Despite the poor Gu 2012 crop production,
the off-season harvest (Mar-Apr’12) has ensured cereal availability in the region. The
ToT between livestock and cereals (maize) has considerably
improved. However, despite the above improvements,
substantial food and income gaps still persist among the poor
agropastoral and pastoral households in most of the region
as they do not have access to saleable animals owing to the
effects of the previous droughts.
The post Gu 2012 integrated nutrition situation analysis in
the Juba regions indicates a sustained Very Critical situation
among the agro-pastoral and riverine livelihoods since
Deyr 2011/12 but an improvement from a Very Critical to
Critical situation among the pastoral population. This slight
improvement, especially among the pastoral population, is
largely linked to an overall improved food security situation that
has increased access to milk and other livestock products as
well as generated an income from livestock that has enhanced
household food access. However, the population in the two
Juba regions still remains highly vulnerable to shocks. The current risk factors are: reduced access to humanitarian services,
high morbidity burden reported AWD and measles outbreaks, poor access to health care services and sanitation, sub-optimal
child feeding and care practices. All of these factors have a direct impact on the health and nutritional status of children
especially, and therefore close monitoring of the situation is crucial.
Table 18: Juba Estimated Rural and Urban Population by District in Emergency and Crisis, Aug-Dec 2012
District
See Appendix 5.4.2 for Footnotes
FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VI 48
Issued October 18, 2012
UNDP 2005
Rural/Urban
Population
Stressed Crisis Emergency
Juba Regions Livelihood
Systems
Map 14: Rural Food Security Phase Classification -
Juba, Aug-Dec 2012
Total in Crisis &
Emergency as % of
Rural population
Juba Dhexe (Middle)
Bu'aale 45,901 1,000 13,000 0 28
Jilib 83,464 1,000 18,000 1,000 23
Saakow/Salagle 54,773 2,000 15,000 0 27
Rural Sub‐total 184,138 4,000 46,000 1,000 26
Urban 54,739 0 26,000 0 47
Regional Total 238,877 4,000 72,000 1,000 31
Juba Hoose (Lower)
Afmadow/Xagar 44,212 3,000 9,000 0 20
Badhaadhe 32,828 2,000 6,000 1,000 21
Jamaame 106,734 0 19,000 3,000 21
Kismaayo 77,334 5,000 11,000 2,000 17
Rural Sub‐total 261,108 10,000 45,000 6,000 20
Urban 124,682 0 22,000 22,000 35
Regional Total 385,790 10,000 67,000 28,000 25
GRAND TOTAL 624,667 14,000 139,000 29,000 27