Fsnau-Post-Gu-2012-Technical-Report

Regional Analysis
62
in addition to the impacts of persistent food insecurity and
civil insecurity in the region. The projected outlook of the
nutrition situation is likely to improve due to the anticipated
increase in milk availability. There is however an urgent need
to create access to appropriate health interventions in the
region to control the high morbidity levels. Close monitoring
of the food security and nutrition situation of this vulnerable
population remains vital, in addition to the provision of
humanitarian interventions.
Financial Capital
Poor crop production in the agropastoral and riverine
livelihoods resulting from unfavorable Gu 2012 rains,
reduced income from agricultural labour and crop sales. The
total crop production in Hiran region is estimated at 1,800MT
(50% of PWA and 152 % of 5-year average), in which 95
percent was collected from riverine areas and 5 percent from
the agropastoral areas. While the livestock body condition
has significantly improved, leading to increased livestock
prices in most livelihood zones of the region, livestock holding
are still below the baseline levels due to high livestock deaths
during the past drought. The herd size projection at the end
of the year indicates an increasing trend but still below the
baseline levels in all livelihoods. In Hawd, camel and sheep/
goat are projected to increase up to near baseline levels,
while sheep/goat remain below baseline. However, in the
Southern Inland Pastoral, all livestock species will remain
below baseline levels. Debt levels amongst the pastoralists
decreased by 41 percent (from USD 140 to USD 83) when
compared to Deyr 2011/12 levels. This was due to improved
livestock body condition and increased prices.
EFFECTS ON LIVELIHOOD STRATEGIES
Main food sources for the riverine communities include
own production (65%) followed by market purchase (35%),
while pastoralists rely mainly on market purchase (57%)
supplemented with own production (39%). Poor riverine
and agropastoral communities earn income from crop and
fodder sales, agricultural employment and self-employment.
In addition, poor pastoralists derive their income mainly
from livestock and livestock product sales. In pastoral
livelihoods of Hiran region, household access to food and
income improved in this season, particularly in Hawd and SIP
livelihoods, due to average rainfall performances that had
significantly improved livestock. In agropastoral and riverine
livelihoods, poor households’ access to food and income was
affected by below normal crop harvest.
Food Sources
Own Production: There is improved milk availability at the
household level in most of the pastoral and agropastoral
areas. This is due to medium lambing/ kidding which occurred
in March- April 2012, and cattle calving in July-August 2012.
Camel calving is expected in November-December 2012 in
most of pastoral livelihoods. Due to limited cereal production
in riverine areas of the region, poor wealth groups had limited
FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VI 48
Issued October 18, 2012
Figure 43: Trends of Gu Cereal Production in Hiran
region
MT
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Maize Sorghum PWA 5 year Avrg
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year
access to cereal stocks, which lasted up to September 2012.
Market Purchase: Overall cereal availability in the Hiran
region has been stable since March 2012 due to average
local cereal production in the previous Deyr 2011/12 season
and continuous cross border cereal supply as well as
commercial food aid in to the region. As such, the price of
white sorghum declined by 73 and 30 percent in June 2012
when compared to same month last year (June’2011) and
six months ago (January’12), respectively while it increased
by 7 percent in August 2012 (Figure 43). Similarly, the price
of white maize declined by 57 and 8 percent in the same
periods, respectively; the price remained stable in August
2012 due to low supply of maize from southern regions as a
result of poor Gu 2012 cereal production as well less cereal
inflow from Ethiopia. The prices of imported commodities (rice,
Figure 44: Trends in White Sorghum Prices (Hiran)
Figure 45: Terms of Trade Daily Labour Rate to
White Sorghum 1Kg