Fsnau-Post-Gu-2012-Technical-Report

Regional Analysis
46
decreased by 2 percent compared to the same month the
previous year (famine period in Gu’11) and by 22 percent
in the last six months (Jan-Jun’12). Nonetheless, cash crop
activities are likely to continue providing the poor households
with labour opportunities in the projected period (Aug-Dec’12)
and labour wages are likely to increase from September
2012. The SLIM data (May 2012) indicate that the number of
people with access to credit decreased by 39 percent from
a year ago. This is because of pending debts incurred in the
previous season and increased debt levels accruing from the
high cultivation and irrigation costs, particularly amongst the
riverine and agropastoral communities.
EFFECTS ON LIVELIHOOD STRATEGIES
Agropastoralists cover their food needs (55-70%) from own
production, including cereals and livestock products such
as milk, meat and ghee. Purchases (cereals and sugar) are
Good Banana Crop, Bardera, Gedo, FSNAU, July 2012
another important food source, contributing 35-40 percent
of their food intake. For income, the agropastoralists mostly
rely on the sale of livestock and livestock products (55-75%).
However, in times of stress, their income is supplemented by
crop sales (10-20%) and remittances (15-25%). Poor agropastoralists
have smaller livestock holdings and, therefore,
a much smaller share of their income (10-20%) is derived
from livestock and livestock product sales compared to
pure pastoralists. They obtain a supplementary income from
self-employment (collection and sale of bush products) and
employment (agricultural labour, porter activities, building of
mud plastering and livestock herding). The main food sources
for the riverine livelihoods include own crop production (50-
60%), followed by market purchases (35-45%) and food gifts. In
normal years, income of poor households in riverine livelihood
comes from employment and self-employment (35-55%)
followed by crop sales (10-20%) and cash gifts. Pastoralists
in the region depend on food purchase as their main source
of food (40-60%), supplemented with own production of meat,
milk and other dairy products from livestock. The major sources
of income of pastoralists are from livestock sales and some
remittances. Poor pastoralists supplement this income through
livestock herding and sales of bush products.
FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VI 48
Issued October 18, 2012
Food Sources:
Own Production: Livestock herd size in the pastoral and
agropastoral areas has remained unchanged since Deyr
2011/12. There was low conception of camel and medium
conception among sheep and goat in Gu ’12. High to Medium
calving/kidding is expected before the end of the year. Milk
production in this Gu was low but expected to improve in the
projection period (Aug-Dec ’12). On the other hand, while
crop production is 53 percent higher compared to a year ago,
it represents only 21 percent of PWA. Specifically, sorghum
production from the agropastoral areas has completely failed
and no off-season sorghum production is expected. Only an
estimated 1,062MT of maize was collected in agropastoral areas.
An additional estimated 182MT of off-season maize is expected
from late September 2012 in the riverine areas but this will not
offset the Gu crop losses. Cereal stocks for the poor agropastoral
households are expected to last 1-2 months in most areas apart
from Gaboharey district (5 months). However, in riverine areas
the cereal stocks are not available to the poor households.
Market Purchase:
Although there was complete sorghum failure, as well as limited
humanitarian assistance in the region, cereal supply from the
neighbouring Bay, cross-border trade with Ethiopia has resulted
in a decline in cereal prices. For example, average sorghum
prices in the selected reference markets (Bardera, Luuq and
Belethawa) are lower (64% and 20%), than the same period a
year ago and in the last six months, respectively . Maize prices
Figure 25: Gedo Regional Gu ‘12 Cereal Production
Trends
MT
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Maize Sorghum PWA 5 year Avrg
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year
have also dropped (47% and 4%) compared to a year ago, as
well as in the last six months, respectively. In August 2012,
sorghum prices exhibited 15 percent increase, while maize prices
increased slightly (4%).
Figure 26: Average Red Sorghum Price in Luuq, Gedo
Region