Fsnau-Post-Gu-2012-Technical-Report

Regional Analysis
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4.3 SOMALIA’S RURAL FOOD SECURITY CRISIS
4.3.1 GEDO REGION
Overview
The overall food security situation improved in the Gedo region in this post-Gu season. The
total number of people in acute food insecurity phases of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency
(IPC Phase 4) is estimated at 50,000, indicating a 38 percent decrease since post-Deyr 2011/12
(Feb-Jun ’12). In August-December 2012, an estimated 35,000 rural people were classified
in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and an estimated 70,000 people were Stressed (IPC Phase 2). The
number of rural people in crisis is projected to remain the same during August – December 2012
period. The most affected are the Juba pump irrigation and Gedo High Potential agropastoral
communities who remain in Crisis as was the case during in the post-Deyr 2011/12 period.
Thirty percent of those considered in Crisis were from pastoral livelihoods (SIP and Dawa).
Map 13: Rural Food Security Phase Classification
Factors contributing to the improved food security situation
Gedo, Aug-Dec 2012
include: strengthened purchasing power of the local population
owing to reduced local cereal prices and favorable livestock
prices; average cash crop production from the riverine
areas, which have provided labour opportunities to the poor
households; average rangeland and livestock body condition
which have resulted in improved income from livestock sales.
However, in all the districts of Gedo, there was complete
sorghum failure, while maize production was limited (1,000MT)
owing to the poor seasonal performance and pest infestations.
As a consequence, income from crop sales declined and the
availability of cereal stocks amongst the poor households were
reduced to a minimal level (less than 2 months). In the projection
period (Aug-Dec ’12), cash crop activities are likely to continue,
providing labour opportunities to poor households. Similarly,
the daily labour wages, cereal, livestock and milk prices are
expected to increase affecting the purchasing power of the
poor households. Additionally, off-season production is expected from September-October 2012. However, this will not offset
Gu crop losses.
The current Gu 2012 integrated nutrition situation analysis of the northern Gedo region depicts a sustained Very Critical
nutrition situation among the pastoral and riverine populations. In the southern Gedo region, no surveys were conducted due
to inaccessibility to the area as a result of civil insecurity. Therefore, the available data (from health and feeding facilities) is
insufficient to make an overall nutrition situation estimation. The nutrition situation in Gedo region remains concerning and
is generally linked to seasonal outbreaks of AWD, cholera, malaria, measles and whooping cough. The situation is further
aggravated by chronic underlying factors such as: household food insecurity, poor dietary quality, inadequate social and care
Table 16: Gedo Region, Estimated Rural and Urban Population by District in Emergency and Crisis, Aug-Dec 2012
District
FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VI 48
Issued October 18, 2012
UNDP 2005
Rural/Urban
Population
Stressed Crisis Emergency
Gedo Region Livelihood
Systems
Total in Crisis &
Emergency as % of
Rural population
Gedo
Baardheere 80,628 22,000 26,000 0 32
Belet Xaawo 42,392 14,000 2,000 0 5
Ceel Waaq 15,437 4,000 0 0 0
Doolow 20,821 7,000 1,000 0 5
Garbahaarey/Buur Dhuubo 39,771 12,000 1,000 0 3
Luuq 48,027 13,000 5,000 0 10
Rural Sub‐total 247,076 72,000 35,000 0 14
Urban 81,302 31,000 16,000 0 20
Regional Total 328,378 103,000 51,000 0 16
See Appendix 5.4.2 for Footnotes