Fsnau-Post-Gu-2012-Technical-Report

Regional Analysis
72
4.3.8 NORThwEST REGIONS
Overview
Post Gu 2012, the food security situation improved in most livelihoods in the Northwest
except for the Guban livelihood where it deteriorated. In July 2012, the total number of
the rural population estimated to be in acute food security crisis (Phase 3 and Phase 4)
were 90,000 (same as in post-Deyr 11/12) due to the deterioration of the Guban livelihood.
However, in the projection period (Aug-Dec’12), the total number of people identified in
acute food security crisis is expected to increase slightly, by 6 percent (95,000) from their
July 2012 levels. Golis/Guban of Awdal, W/Galbeed and Sanaag regions are identified
in Crisis phase (IPC Phase 3), while the rest of the livelihoods are in the Stress phase
(IPC Phase 2). Factors contributing to the improved food security situation in most of the
region’s livelihoods include: increased own production (crop and livestock); increased
milk availability following a medium to high kidding among the small ruminants and low to
medium camel calving; increased humanitarian interventions;
strengthened purchasing power of the local population as a
result of reduced local cereal prices and favourable livestock
prices. However, the food security situation deteriorated in
the Guban zone (Awdal, W/Galbeed and Sanaag) due to
three consecutive poor Xays rains, which affected rangeland
and water sources and resulted in considerably deteriorated
livestock conditions.
The post Gu 2012 integrated nutrition situation analysis
shows some stable and some deteriorating trends in the
nutrition situation in Northwest livelihoods compared to the
Deyr 2011/12. The nutrition situation for the West Golis and
Nugal Valley livelihoods deteriorated from Serious and Critical levels respectively in Deyr 2011/12 to Very Critical. The
nutrition situation among the population in the Hawd livelihood has also significantly deteriorated from the Serious levels
in Deyr 2011/12 to the current Critical level. The deterioration of the nutrition situation in West Golis/Guban is linked to a
severe reduction in household milk access due to livestock out migration which has left some family members, especially
women and young children without saleable livestock or livestock products without which they cannot generate income
to buy food and other essential goods and services. In Nugal Valley and Hawd livelihood, morbidity, including a measles
outbreak in Burao and Ainabo districts was also a major aggravating factor. On the other hand, the nutrition situation among
the populations in the Sool Plateau, East Golis/Gebbi Valley and Agro-pastoral livelihoods has remained stable at Serious
levels since Deyr 2011/12.
Effects on Livelihood Assets
Natural Capital
The rains were at near normal levels in most parts of the
Northwest region this Gu season. As a result, average
pasture, browse and water conditions were observed in
most of the key pastoral livelihoods of Hawd, Nugal Valley,
Sool Plateau, and parts of Golis. Water prices remained
average (0.2 USD/Jerry-can) in most of the region. In June
2012, water prices declined by 44 percent in Sool plateau
as Gu’12 rain replenished berkad. However, in August
2012, water prices went up in the berkad-dependent areas
of the Sool plateau due to the pressure of the in-migrated
livestock from Golis/Guban zone owing to three consecutive
poor Xays rains. As a result of improved rangeland conditions, the livestock body condition for all species had improved to
an increased average (PET:3) in most livelihoods, except the Guban zone which has poor to very poor conditions (PET:1-
2).
FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VI 48
Issued October 18, 2012
Northwest
Region: Livelihood Systems
Map 20: Rural Food Security Phase Classification
Northwest, Aug-Dec 2012
Average body and pasture condition - Sool plateau,
Xudun, Sool, FSNAU July, 2012