Fsnau-Post-Gu-2012-Technical-Report

Urban Analysis
34
Evolution of food SEcurity And nutrition SituAtion in
SomAliA (SincE fAminE 2011)
During the 2011 famine in Somalia, a total of 4.0 million people were identified as being in food security crisis, of
which 750,000 people (490,000 rural people and 260,000 IDPs) faced starvation 1 . The famine conditions resulted from
a prolonged drought and insecurity in southern Somalia, which meant humanitarian agencies could not provide a timely
response to the deteriorating situation. In February 2012, the end of famine was declared and the number of people in
crisis reduced to 2.55 million. The improvement in the South was largely a result of the massive scaling-up of multisectoral
humanitarian assistance and a good performance of the Deyr rains (Oct and Dec’11) leading to very good cereal
harvest; increased farm labour opportunities; reduced food prices and significantly strengthened purchasing power.
Livestock body conditions also improved during Deyr leading to a swelling of livestock prices and high conception rates.
However, cattle pastoralists of Juba regions where impact of the drought was more severe (see FSNAU Tech Series No
VI. 36, pg. 42) still remained in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) in the post-Deyr 2011/12 along with a few other areas in the
South (ref. FSNAU Tech Series report, No.VI.44).
Recent post Gu 2012 analysis indicated continued improvement in the food security and nutrition situation for the
projection period of August-December 2012. The total number of people in acute food security crisis in the country has
reduced to an estimated 2.12 million, of which 1.32 million people are in rural and urban areas and 800,000 in the IDP
settlements. Southern regions account for over 60 percent of the rural/urban population in crisis (805,000), although
these numbers are significantly lower than the estimates during famine (2.44 million). The July 2012 caseload of the
number of acutely malnourished children nation-wide (236,000 of under-fives) indicates a reduction of almost half
since the famine period (450,000).
The improvements in the food security outcomes from post-Gu 2012, is mostly observed among the pastoralists. This
is demonstrated in increased access to saleable animals (small ruminants) at favourable prices (local sales and exports)
owing to improved body condition and high demand. The herds of small ruminants have also shown some increase,
as the sheep and goats were able to be kidded/lambed twice after Deyr 2011/12 owing to good conditions and a short
gestation period (5 months). The reproduction of cattle was however still low, due to a longer gestation period (9 months)
and because of the impact of the 2011 drought. The recovery of cattle herds will require several good seasons. Therefore,
cattle pastoralists in Juba regions are still classified in crisis (IPC Phase 3) although they have been downgraded on the
acute food insecurity scale since post-Deyr 2011/12 (from IPC Phase 4). The food security situation in post-Gu 2012, has
slightly improved in the urban areas as a result of reduced cost of living. However, the food security concerns persist in
the South, particularly in farming areas, due to poor performance of Gu rains.
The Gu 2012 harvest was the third lowest since 1995, although the 2012 annual production was above average due to carryover
stocks from the previous (Deyr) seasonal harvest. There is also sustained and escalated conflict in parts of the South
restricting humanitarian access and disrupting trade and commodity flows. Based on historical trends, deterioration in the
nutrition situation is highly likely in the upcoming season owing to uncontrolled cholera, malaria or measles outbreaks.
Furthermore, there are concerns that the current decrease in cereal prices will be short lived and prices are predicted to
rise in the lean season (Nov-Dec ’12), as a result of increasing food price trends in the international markets; a shortage
of local cereal supply from the Gu cereal production and reduced planned humanitarian assistance.
The table below summarizes various food security and nutrition indicators during the famine period (2011) and now
(2012) in southern Somalia using the example of Bay and Lower Shabelle regions.
1 These areas included the riverine and most agropastoral areas of Lower Shabelle region, all rural livelihoods of Bay
region, the Bakool agropastoral livelihood zone, Middle Shabelle agropastoral areas (Balcad and Cadale districts), the
Afgoye corridor Internally Displaced People (IDP) settlement, and the Mogadishu IDP community
FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VI 48
Issued October 18, 2012