Fsnau-Post-Gu-2012-Technical-Report

IDP Analysis
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Given the security constraints, however, coping strategy
data is not currently available in the rest of South-Central.
In the North, the major coping strategies used are mild
and moderate strategies for 65 percent and 77 percent of
households, respectively. The proportion of households using
severe strategies in the northern regions are relatively and
significantly lower; 16 percent are employing severe coping
strategies compared to 13 percent in the December 2012.
Outlook
In the projected period (Aug–Dec ’12), the number of people
in food security crisis is estimated to increase by 18 percent
to 530,000 people. The major assumptions behind the
deteriorating food security situation in urban areas include
the anticipated increase in food prices, which will affect the
purchasing power of the market dependent urban population.
The price increases will be mostly driven by the shortfall of
Gu production and also by rising international food prices.
Given poor road infrastructure, the forecasted El Niño during
the Deyr rains (Oct-Dec ’12) will likely increase rainfall and
flooding, affecting trade movements within the country.
Trade and other economic activities may also decline
due to the likely deterioration of the security situation in
southern Somalia. Reduced trade may have an effect on
food availability and thus place upward pressure on food
prices. An increase of the prices of locally produced cereals
of between 3 and 13 percent from June to July was already
observed in many key markets.
The trend of increasing international prices will also place
additional pressure on urban households’ ability to purchase
food which comprises the majority of their expenditures.
Sugar prices are especially likely to rise over the next several
months. However, prices are unlikely to reach their high levels
from 2011 as the cost of the MEB remains much lower than
last year, and the prices of some imported goods such as
rice may remain relatively stable.
4.2 INTERNALLY DISpLACED pERSONS (IDpS)
Overview
One of the key outcomes of the prolonged conflict in
Somalia is human displacement with the latest estimates of
internal displacement at about 1.36 million people (Source:
UNHCR Somalia’s IDP Population Estimates by Region, July
2012). In May and June, FSNAU conducted assessments
in major IDP settlements across the country to assess the
food security situation of the IDPs. The IDP household
information was obtained from IDP settlements by means
of rapid assessments South/Central (5 settlements) and
through representative surveys in South-Central (2) and in
the North (7) 4 .
4 Rapid assessments were carried out in Abudwaq, Beledweyne, Jowhar,
Baidoa and Beledhawa; representative IDP household surveys were
conducted in the IDP settlements in Dhusamareb (Central); Banadir
(South); and Hargeisa, Berbera, Burco, Bossaso, Qardho, Garowe and
FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VI 48
Issued October 18, 2012
Both primary IDP household data (demographics, access to
services, livelihood assets and strategies, etc.) as well as
secondary information (market prices, displacement, crisis
in urban/rural areas, etc.) were integrated in the analysis
of IDP food security situation and their main vulnerabilities.
FSNAU classifies 800,000 people out of the estimated 1.36
million IDPs in the country as in acute food security crisis 5 .
About 85 percent of these people are estimated to be living
in Mogadishu (184,000) and Lower Shabelle (496,000) with
the rest spread over other parts of the country. Overall, in the
August-December 2012 period, the food security situation
remains generally unchanged from the first half of the
current year in most IDP settlements except those in Berbera
and Burao where the situation has deteriorated. All of the
assessed IDP settlements are classified in Emergency (IPC
phase 4) except for those in Hargeisa, which is classified in
Crisis (IPC phase 3).
Specifically, the IDP settlements in Banaadir regions
remain in Emergency (IPC 4), as demonstrated by the high
proportion of IDP households with poor food consumption
scores (42 percent with “poor” Food Consumption Score
(FCS)) and the high proportion of IDP households relying
on severe to very severe coping strategies (35 percent of
households). In addition, a large portion of IDPs’ incomes
in this settlement, that is an average of 85%, is spent on
food. Although the malnutrition rates have reduced in this
settlement to a GAM rate of 9.6 percent since the previous
assessment (Apr. ’12), the crude death rates (CDR) are
estimated at a critical level of 1.41 per 10,000 people per day.
IDP settlements in most parts of the North are classified in
Emergency (IPC Phase 4) apart from those in Hargeisa
(W.Galbeed), which are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). The GAM
rates in these settlements vary from 16.3 percent to 21.7
percent. More than half of the IDPs (67-83%) in the Northwest
settlements and 20-43 percent in the IDPs in the Northeast
settlements have poor to borderline food consumption levels.
A large portion of IDPs’ incomes in this settlement is spent on
food (75-80 percent of expenditures). Out of the total IDPs
surveyed within the country (3,518 households), 55 percent
are from the southern regions, of which the majority (60%)
are from Mogadishu; 8 percent from central regions; and 37
percent from different parts in the North. The main reasons
for displacement were insecurity (26% of households),
relocation and return (37%), drought and lack of livelihood
(33%) and others (4%).
Galkayo (all in the Norh)
5 The IDP estimates are based on UNHCR population movement
tracking data, which is not intended to collect long-term cumulative IDP
data. Therefore, to avoid double counting, only 800, 000 IDPs who are
concentrated in the settlements are classified in food security crisis.
The situation of the rest of the IDPs who are integrated in rural/urban
communities is captured in rural/urban food security analysis. The
IDP population in crisis are those in large concentrated settlements in
Hargeisa, Berbera, Burco, Bossaso, Garowe and Galkacyo, Mogadishu,
Afgoye and Kismayo.