San Luis Obispo - Caltrans - State of California

SAN LUIS OBISPO REGION
COORDINATED HUMAN SERVICES-PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION PLAN
At the low end of these ranges, the region’s target population grows from:
‣ 17 percent to 20 percent of the total population.
At the high end, the target population grows from:
‣ 23 percent up to 28 percent.
The low income population is held at a steady rate, anticipating that change is unlikely for this
group: 9 percent of the total population and 13 percent of the adult population. It was projected
forward then as a constant proportion, within a range that includes the population with
disabilities. The disability population may be an increasing proportion, as increases in the
number of adults with disabilities are suggested by evidence in the public health literature. This
literature predicts increases among younger cohorts due to potentially rising obesity rates. 10 For
purposes of this analysis, such possible growth is represented within the range of adults age 16
to 64 inclusive of those of limited means.
There is some demographic evidence, at the national level, that the proportion of seniors in
poverty is decreasing as the baby-boomers age. This suggests that while tomorrow’s seniors
will be increasing significantly in quantity, they may also be more able to offset the costs of the
services they require. 11
3.4.5 Demand Estimation
Anticipating what level of trips these persons need and what proportion of these trips are unmet
or undermet are other areas of inquiry. Table 3-13 presents an estimate of the potential trip
demand for specialized transit trips hypothesized for these target populations, drawing upon trip
making rates in various national research efforts.
Working with the population estimates presented in Tables 3-11 and 3-12, the Table 3-13
following uses average daily trip rates, defined as the number of one-way trips per day made by
an individual, developed through national research to establish a total level of trips these groups
may be making on a typical weekday. These trip rates are annualized to establish annual trips
made. Assumptions are then applied as to the proportion of trips made on transit or specialized
transportation.
The target population groups considered in Table 3-13 following utilizes the 2000 Census adult
population estimates developed in Table 3-11. This revealed that for adults below age 65,
proportions of 13 to 17 percent were persons of low-income or disabled or may fall into both
categories, somewhere between 5,909 and 21,534 persons. Seniors in various sub groups are
considered, including those who are low income (6 percent of seniors), those with disabilities
(15 percent of seniors) and those over age 75 where general health conditions are more
prevalent (49 percent of seniors).
10 www.pubmed.gov, website of the National Library of Medicine and the National Institutes of Health, as
cited in SACOG Region Senior and Mobility Study, 2007, p. 10.
11 U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P23-194, Population Profile of the
United States, 1997. Washington DC, 1998, p. 4.
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OCTOBER 2007