San Luis Obispo - Caltrans - State of California

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SAN LUIS OBISPO REGION COORDINATED HUMAN SERVICES-PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION PLAN Table 3-13 Specialized Transit Trip Demand Estimation for SAFETEA-LU Target Populations (2000 Census) Target Population, Census 2000 Column B Column C Column D Column E Estimated Annual Trips, All Trips (Trip Rate * Target Population * 255 days) Adults (age 16 – 64) Low Income Population at 13% of adult population ages 18-64 20,317,329 (21,534 persons) 13% to 17% adult population 3.7 \1 Disabled population at 4% of adult population (5,909 persons) 5,575,142 8.5% \3 Annual Trips Potentially on Public Transit (Annual Trips * Public Transit Rate) Annual Trips Requiring Special Assistance @ 25% of Public Transit Trips 1,726,973 431,743 Seniors (ages 65+) Seniors low-income at 6% of age 65+ (2,029 persons) 6% to 15% of senior Seniors with disabilities at 15% of population 3.4 \1 1,759,143 3% \5 52,774 13,194 age 65+ (5,317 persons) 4,609,839 3% \5 138,295 34,574 Seniors age 75+ when mobility issues become increasingly critical (17,659 persons) Target Populations for San Luis Obispo County 49% of senior population Low end trip range: disabled adults 16- 64 and up to 49% of seniors High end trip range: low income adults 16-64 and up to 49% of all seniors Column A Mean Trip Rates Per Day \1 Trip Making Estimate Range 473,887 118,472 2.1 \2 15,310,353 2% \1 306,207 76,552 to % Trips Made On Public Transit 20,885,495 780,094 195,024 35,627,682 2,033,180 508,295 [1] Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 2001 National Household Travel Survey - Trip rates for 65+, Not Employed; Medical Conditions Limiting Travel [2] National Cooperative Highway Research Program "Estimating Impacts of the Aging Population on Transit Ridership", p. 17 (2006) [3] Sacramento Area Council of Governments Household Travel Survey 1999, Senior & Disabled Mobility Study, 2006, p. 9. [4] Freedom to Travel, U.S. Dot Bureau of Transportation Statistics (2002) [5] Transportation Research Report, TCRP Report 82: Improving Public Transit Options for Older Persons (2002) and 2001 National Household Travel Survey (6%) Table 3-13 proposes mean trip rates for these persons, estimates the number of total trips taken by these individuals annually, estimates the number of these trips potentially taken on public transit and then, of these, the proportion that may require specialized transportation or additional assistance. Mean trip rates (Column A in Table 3-13) are the average number of one-way trips per day made by an individual. Mean trip rates are drawn from several published sources. • The longstanding source is the 2001 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) which is routinely used as a basic data set by which to understand travel patterns of various subsets of the population. This disaggregated study is built up from a relatively small “n” but distributed around the country so that it is not geographically limited to a single region. Because extensive work has been done with this data set, and a similar 1999 study, it is the most common source for daily trip rate activity. • Through the U.S. DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, mean trip rates for persons age 65, for those not employed, and for those with medical conditions limiting travel were developed and used in Table 3-13. • Also used is work published by the National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRD) in a study entitled Estimating Impacts of the Aging Population on Transit Ridership (2006). Considerable research has been done by the highway industry to 49 OCTOBER 2007
SAN LUIS OBISPO REGION COORDINATED HUMAN SERVICES-PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION PLAN understand the effects of the aging process and its implications for road and highway design. This particular study disaggregated the travel patterns of seniors of different ages and mobility levels and their published mean trip rate for the oldest old, defined as age 85 and older is used here. • Several sources were used in attributing mode share to these subgroups. The U.S. DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics published a study Freedom to Travel (2002) that examined the trip making behavior of various groups. It included an analysis of persons with disabilities and did identify them as high users of public transit, at rates of 25 percent and more of trips made, unlike the mode share for the general population of 4 percent or less. • By contrast, the Sacramento Council of Governments conducted a 1999 disaggregated travel survey of seniors and the disabled populations and established a mode share of 8.5 percent use of transit by persons with disabilities, this in a region that is transitfriendly to persons with disabilities. This lower rate of use is used here. • Finally a Transit Cooperative Research Report (TCRP), Report 82: Improving Public Transit Options for Older Persons” (2002) identified a 3 percent public transit utilization rate by seniors in urbanized areas. This was half the mode share suggested by the 2001 National Household Travel Survey but this lower rate of use is used in Table 3-13 to help ensure a conservative, low-end estimate. Table 3-13 uses these sources to establish the “mean” trip rate per person in the subgroup per day (Column A). This rate is multiplied by target population group number, times 255 days, to establish a mean weekday travel figure for the year (Column B). For the subgroups identified this represents a range of 20.8 million to 35.6 million trips a year, for weekday only trips by all modes, and all methods by which these individuals might travel. Then the various rates of public transit, drawn from the literature and discussed above, are applied to establish the proportions of these trips potentially presenting for public transit (Column C). Multiplying these public transit rates times the annual trips taken establishes the range of public transit trips, between 780,000 and 2.0 million needed by members of the target populations (Column D). A further calculation is made to identify the proportion of these trips – presumed by this calculation to be one in four trips (25 percent) -- where some kind of special intervention, additional information or assistance, or particular requirement may be needed (Column E). For the San Luis Obispo region, this is estimated at 195,000 to 508,000 passenger trips, given the 2000 census population base. As the proportion of persons requiring these specialized trips grows in San Luis Obispo County, the relative need for increased numbers of these trips will grow also. 50 OCTOBER 2007
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COORDINATED HUMAN SERVICES - PUBLIC
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Gaps in service, continued SAN LUIS
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Ride-On Interview at Ride-On office
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San Luis Obispo - Caltrans - State of California

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