Annual Energy Outlook 2006 with Projections to 2030 - Usinfo.org

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Forecast Comparisonsconsumption. In the GII projection, coke plants consumeonly 14 million tons of coal in 2030, comparedwith 21 million tons in the AEO2006 reference case.The AEO2006 reference case shows no change inindustrial/other coal consumption, whereas EVA projectsa drop in industrial/other consumption, to 60million short tons in 2025.In the GII projections, minemouth coal prices (electricpower sector only) appear to peak by 2010 andthen fall below 2004 levels by 2030 (in real dollars).The AEO2006 reference case shows a similar downwardtrend after 2010 in its average nationalminemouth price (all sectors combined) through2020; however, prices rise after 2020, in response tosubstantial growth in coal demand from the electricpower sector and CTL. GII’s average delivered priceof coal to the electric power sector in 2030 is 19 percentlower than the AEO2006 reference case (on a Btubasis). The average delivered price of coal to the electricitysector in the GII forecast is still 13 percentlower (on a Btu basis) than the AEO2006 low economicgrowth case, despite comparable levels of coalconsumption in the electricity sector.All the forecasts reviewed meet coal demand primarilythrough domestic production. AEO2006 projectsthe largest increase in production over the forecasthorizon, 51 percent higher in 2030 than in 2004. Aswith consumption, the PIRA and EVA projections forcoal production most closely resemble those in theAEO2006 low economic growth case. GII projects coalconsumption levels for 2015, 2025, and 2030 that aremore than 100 million tons less than projected in theAEO2006 reference case.In all the projections, gross exports of coal represent asmall and declining part of domestic coal production.EVA projects the most exports, 30 million tons in2025, and the other projections are around 20 milliontons. The AEO2006 reference case shows coal exportsfalling to 17 million tons in 2030, and GII projects 22million tons. In the AEO2006 reference case, theexport share of total U.S. coal production falls from 4percent in 2004 to roughly 1 percent in 2030. Currently,coal is the only domestic U.S. energy resourcefor which exports exceed imports. All the projectionsexpect the United States to become a net importer ofcoal over the projection period. GII projects the lowestlevel of coal imports, only 14 million tons in 2030. TheAEO2006 reference case projection for coal imports in2025 is 23 million tons higher than the EVA projection,which is the next highest.118 Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2006
List of AcronymsACI Activated carbon injectionAD Associated-dissolved (natural gas)AEO Annual Energy OutlookAEO2005 Annual Energy Outlook 2005AEO2006 Annual Energy Outlook 2006Altos Altos PartnersANWR Arctic National Wildlife RefugeAPI American Petroleum InstituteBLGCC Black liquor gasification coupled with acombined-cycle power plantBOE Barrels of oil equivalentBTL Biomass-to-liquidsBtu British thermal unitsCAAA90 Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990CAFE Corporate average fuel economyCAIR Clean Air Interstate RuleCAMR Clean Air Mercury RuleCARB California Air Resources BoardCBO Congressional Budget OfficeCHP Combined heat and powerCO 2 Carbon dioxideCPI Consumer price indexCRI Color rendering indexCTL Coal-to-liquidsDB Deutsche Bank AGDCL Direct coal liquefactionDOE U.S. Department of EnergyE85 Fuel containing a blend of 70 to 85 percent ethanolEEA Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc.EIA Energy Information AdministrationEMF Stanford University Energy Modeling ForumEPA U.S. Environmental Protection AgencyEPACT1992 Energy Policy Act of 1992EPACT2005 Energy Policy Act of 2005ERO Electric Reliability OrganizationETBE Ethyl tertiary butyl etherEVA Energy Ventures Analysis, Inc.FERC Federal Energy Regulatory CommissionGATS Generation Attribute Tracking SystemGDP Gross domestic productGHG Greenhouse gasGII Global Insight, Inc.GT-MH Gas-Turbine Modular Helium reactorGTL Gas-to-liquidsH 2 Molecular hydrogenHCCI Homogeneous charge compression ignitionICL Indirect coal liquefactionIEA International Energy AgencyIGCC Integrated gasification combined-cycleINFORUM Interindustry Forecasting at the University ofMarylandIRAC Average imported refiner acquisition cost of crudeoil to the United StatesIRIS International Reactor Innovative and Secure reactorLED Light-emitting diodeLFG Landfill gasLNG Liquefied natural gasLPGLWRMACTMRETSMSWMTBENANAAQSNARGNASNEMSNEPOOLNGLNHTSAnmNO xNRCNYMEXOLEDOMBOPECPATHPBMRPDVSAPELPIRAPM 2.5ppmPTCPURPAPVR&DRD&DRFGRFSRPSSAFETEA-LUSAGDSCRSEERSIPSNCRSO 2SSLSyncrudeTAMETANULSDUSGSVOCWPIWREGISWTIZEHLiquefied petroleum gasLight-water reactorMaximum Achievable Control TechnologyMidwest Renewable Energy Tracking SystemMunicipal solid wasteMethyl tertiary butyl etherNonassociated (natural gas)National Ambient Air Quality StandardsAltos Partners North American Regional Gas ModelNational Academy of SciencesNational Energy Modeling SystemNew England Power PoolNatural gas liquidsNational Highway Traffic Safety AdministrationNanometer (one-billionth of a meter)Nitrogen oxidesU.S. Nuclear Regulatory CommissionNew York Mercantile ExchangeOrganic light-emitting diodeOffice of Management and BudgetOrganization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesPartnership for Advanced Technology in HousingPebble Bed Modular ReactorPetroleos de Venezuela SAPetroleum Economics, Ltd.Petroleum Industry Research Associates, Inc.Fine particulate matterParts per millionProduction tax creditPublic Utility Regulatory Policies ActPhotovoltaicResearch and developmentResearch, development, and demonstrationReformulated gasolineRenewable fuels standardRenewable portfolio standardSafe, Accountable, Flexible, and EfficientTransportation Equity Act: A Legacy for UsersSteam-assisted gravity drainageSelective catalytic reductionStrategic Energy and Economic Research, Inc.State Implementation PlanSelective noncatalytic reductionSulfur dioxideSolid-state lightingSynthetic crudeTertiary amyl methyl etherTotal acid numberUltra-low-sulfur diesel fuelU.S. Geological SurveyVolatile organic compoundWholesale price indexWestern Renewable Energy Generation InformationTracking SystemWest Texas Intermediate (crude oil)Zero Energy HomeEnergy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2006 119
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DOE/EIA-0383(2006)February 2006Annu
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DOE/EIA-0383(2006)Annual Energy Out
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ContentsPageOverview ..............
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ContentsFigures (Continued)Page11.
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ContentsFigures (Continued)Page109.
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OverviewEnergy Trends to 2030The En
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Overviewlong-term average oil price
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Overviewcubic feet in 2004 to 27.0
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Overviewfrom 789 billion kilowattho
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Overviewprojected to be built to se
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Legislation andRegulations
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Legislation and Regulationsand inst
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Legislation and RegulationsIndustri
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Legislation and RegulationsIn addit
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Legislation and Regulationsland wil
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Legislation and RegulationsTable 2.
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Legislation and Regulations• Unde
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Legislation and RegulationsProjects
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Legislation and Regulationsplants w
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Issues in Focus
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Issues in Focusworld oil price incr
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Issues in Focusand equipment will r
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Issues in FocusAEO2006 Price CasesT
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Issues in Focusbase in the high pri
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Issues in Focusin gasification unit
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Issues in Focusrevolutionize transp
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Issues in Focussynthesis gas. Any o
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Issues in Focusenvironmental impact
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Issues in Focussubstantial incremen
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Issues in FocusMarket penetration o
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Issues in FocusAccording to most an
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Issues in FocusThere are two leadin
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Issues in Focuscost reductions are
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Issues in Focusthe early years of t
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Market TrendsThe projections in AEO
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Trends in Economic ActivityOutput G
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Energy DemandAverage Energy Use per
Page 77 and 78: Residential Sector Energy DemandDem
Page 79 and 80: Commercial Sector Energy DemandEcon
Page 81 and 82: Industrial Sector Energy DemandAdva
Page 83 and 84: Industrial Sector Energy DemandEner
Page 85 and 86: Transportation Sector Energy Demand
Page 87 and 88: Electricity Demand and SupplyContin
Page 89 and 90: Electricity SupplyEPACT2005 Tax Cre
Page 91 and 92: Electricity From Renewable SourcesT
Page 93 and 94: Electricity Alternative CasesFaster
Page 95 and 96: Natural Gas DemandIncreases in Natu
Page 97 and 98: Natural Gas PricesProjected Natural
Page 99 and 100: Natural Gas Alternative CasesNatura
Page 101 and 102: Oil Prices and ProductionOil Prices
Page 103 and 104: Oil Price and Technology CasesU.S.
Page 105 and 106: Refined Petroleum ProductsTransport
Page 107 and 108: Ethanol and Synthetic FuelsU.S. Dem
Page 109 and 110: Coal Mine Employment and Coal Price
Page 111 and 112: Coal ConsumptionCoal-Fired Generato
Page 113 and 114: Carbon Dioxide EmissionsHigher Ener
Page 115: Nitrogen Oxide and Mercury Emission
Page 118 and 119: Forecast ComparisonsOnly GII produc
Page 120 and 121: Forecast Comparisonsconsumption and
Page 122 and 123: Forecast ComparisonsNatural GasPubl
Page 124 and 125: Forecast Comparisonsproviding about
Page 126 and 127: Forecast Comparisonsrefiners acquis
Page 130 and 131: Notes and SourcesText NotesLegislat
Page 132 and 133: Notes and Sources[48]These costs re
Page 134 and 135: Notes and SourcesTable Notes and So
Page 136 and 137: Notes and SourcesFigure 28. Energy
Page 138 and 139: Notes and SourcesFigure 81. Net imp
Page 141: Appendixes
Page 144 and 145: Reference Case
Page 175 and 176: Appendix BEconomic Growth Case Comp
Page 177 and 178: Economic Growth Case Comparisons
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Economic Growth Case Comparisons
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Economic Growth Case Comparisons
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Price Case Comparisons
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Appendix DResults from Side Cases
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Results from Side Cases
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NEMS Overview and Brief Description
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Appendix FRegional MapsEnergy Infor
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Regional Maps Energy Information
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Regional Maps Energy Information Ad
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Regional MapsEnergy Information Adm
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The Energy Information Administrati
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