Annual Energy Outlook 2006 with Projections to 2030 - Usinfo.org

Issues in Focussubstantial incremental amounts of hydrogen will beproduced before 2030.NuclearThe nuclear cost assumptions for AEO2006 are basedon the realized costs of advanced nuclear powerplants whose designs have been certified by the U.S.Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and/or havebeen built somewhere in the world—specifically, thegeneration 3 light-water reactors (LWRs). To accountfor technological improvements, it is assumed thatcosts will fall, with cost reductions reflecting incrementalimprovements in the designs of reactors asthey evolve from the generation 3 to generation 3+.Recently, some vendors have reported cost estimatesfor generation 3+ reactors that are much lower thanthose assumed in NEMS, even after allowing for costreductions; however, their estimates were based onincomplete designs, and history has shown that costestimates based on incomplete designs tend to beunreliable [44]. For AEO2006, the vendor estimatesare used in a sensitivity analysis.Although the nuclear capital cost assumptions usedin both the reference case and the sensitivity analysisare representative of the costs of building LWRswhose designs reflect incremental improvementsover those that have been built in the Far East or arebeing built in Europe, a number of small-scale andlarge-scale LWR designs that differ significantly fromgeneration 3 plants could be commercially availableby 2030 [45]. Because of technical and economicuncertainties, however, they are not included inAEO2006.A number of non-LWR designs for nuclear powerplants have also been suggested, including variantson the traditional fast breeder technology, such aslead-cooled and sodium-cooled reactors. Thesedesigns are often referred to as “generation 4”nuclear power plants. The technologies have all theadvantages and disadvantages of the traditionalbreeder reactors that have been built in Europe andthe Far East, and because of their large size theywould be more economically advantageous in regulatedelectricity markets, where financial risks arenot borne entirely by investors.Examples of the small, modular power plant designsinclude the Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (PBMR), theGas-Turbine Modular Helium (GT-MH) reactor andthe International Reactor Innovative and Secure(IRIS) reactor. In theory at least, these plants mightbe built in competitive markets where it is economicallyadvantageous to add small amounts of capacityin response to volatile and uncertain electricity prices[46].The PBMR and the GT-MH reactor are also designedto operate at much higher temperatures than theLWRs currently in operation. Thus, both of thesedesigns could potentially be used to produce both electricityand hydrogen. In fact, EPACT2005 authorizes$1.25 billion to build a prototype of such a reactorthat could be used to cogenerate electricity and hydrogen.The law specifies that a prototype reactor shouldbe completed by 2021. The economic potential of sucha reactor is considerable, in that the hydrogen couldbe used in fuel cells or in other industrial processes;however, the technological uncertainties involved aresubstantial.Advanced Technologies for Light-DutyVehiclesA fundamental concern in projecting the futureattributes of light-duty vehicles—passenger cars,sport utility vehicles, pickup trucks, and minivans—is how to represent technological change and the marketforces that drive it. There is always considerableuncertainty about the evolution of existing technologies,what new technologies might emerge, and howconsumer preferences might influence the directionof change. Most of the new and emerging technologiesexpected to affect the performance and fuel use oflight-duty vehicles over the next 25 years are representedin NEMS; however, the potential emergence ofnew, unforeseen technologies makes it impossible toaddress all the technology options that could comeinto play. The previous section of “Issues in Focus”discussed several potential technologies that currentlyare not represented in NEMS. This section discussessome of the key technologies represented inNEMS that are expected to be implemented inlight-duty vehicles over the next 25 years.The NEMS Transportation Module represents technologiesfor light-duty vehicles that allow them tocomply with current standards for safety, emissions,and fuel economy or may improve their efficiencyand/or performance, based on expected consumerdemand for those attributes. Technologies that canimprove vehicle efficiency take two forms: those thatrepresent incremental improvements to or advancementsin the various components of conventionalpower trains, and those that represent significantchanges in power train design. Advanced technologiesused in vehicles with new power train designsinclude, primarily, electric power propulsion systemsin hybrid, fuel cell, and battery-powered vehicles.Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2006 49