Annual Energy Outlook 2006 with Projections to 2030 - Usinfo.org

ContentsPageForecast Comparisons ...............................................................107List of Acronyms ....................................................................119Notes and Sources ..................................................................120AppendixesA. Reference Case ...................................................................... 133B. Economic Growth Case Comparisons .................................................... 165C. Price Case Comparisons. .............................................................. 173D. Results from Side Cases ............................................................... 184E. NEMS Overview and Brief Description of Cases ........................................... 199F. Regional Maps. ...................................................................... 213G. Conversion Factors. .................................................................. 221Tables1. Total energy supply and disposition in the AEO2006 reference case: summary, 2003-2030. ........ 112. CARB emissions standards for light-duty vehicles, model years 2009-2016 ...................... 233. Proposed light truck CAFE standards by model year and footprint category .................... 234. Key projections for light truck fuel economy in the alternative CAFE standards case, 2011-2030. ... 245. Basic features of State renewable energy requirements and goals enacted since 2003 ............. 256. Major changes in existing State renewable energy requirements and goals since 2003 ............ 257. New U.S. renewable energy capacity, 2004-2005 ........................................... 268. Estimates of national trends in annual emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides, 2003-2020. . 289. Macroeconomic model estimates of economic impacts from oil price increases ................... 3510. Time-series estimates of economic impacts from oil price increases ............................ 3611. Summary of U.S. oil price-GDP elasticities. ............................................... 3612. Economic indicators in the reference, high price, and low price cases, 2005-2030. ................ 3813. Technologies expected to have significant impacts on new light-duty vehicles ................... 5114. Nonconventional liquid fuels production in the AEO2006 reference and high price cases, 2030 ..... 5215. Projected changes in U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, gross domestic product,and greenhouse gas intensity, 2002-2020 ................................................. 6016. Costs of producing electricity from new plants, 2015 and 2030. ............................... 7817. Technically recoverable U.S. natural gas resources as of January 1, 2004. ...................... 8818. Technically recoverable U.S. crude oil resources as of January 1, 2004 ......................... 9119. Forecasts of annual average economic growth, 2004-2030. ................................... 10820. Forecasts of world oil prices, 2010-2030 .................................................. 10821. Forecasts of average annual growth rates for energy consumption, 2004-2030 ................... 10922. Comparison of electricity forecasts, 2015 and 2030 ......................................... 11123. Comparison of natural gas forecasts, 2015, 2025, and 2030 .................................. 11224. Comparison of petroleum forecasts, 2015 and 2030 ......................................... 11525. Comparison of coal forecasts, 2015, 2025, and 2030. ........................................ 116Figures1. Energy prices, 1980-2030 .............................................................. 42. Delivered energy consumption by sector, 1980-2030 ........................................ 53. Energy consumption by fuel, 1980-2030 .................................................. 64. Energy use per capita and per dollar of gross domestic product, 1980-2030 ..................... 65. Electricity generation by fuel, 1980-2030 ................................................. 76. Total energy production and consumption, 1980-2030 ...................................... 87. Energy production by fuel, 1980-2030. ................................................... 88. Projected U.S. carbon dioxide emissions by sector and fuel, 1990-2030 ......................... 109. Sulfur dioxide emissions in selected States, 1990-2003 ...................................... 2810. World oil prices in the AEO2005 and AEO2006 reference cases ............................... 32iv Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2006