Annual Energy Outlook 2006 with Projections to 2030 - Usinfo.org

Issues in Focusin gasification units to provide power, steam, and/orhydrogen for the refinery.U.S. refineries are among the most advanced in theworld, and their technological lead will undoubtedlyleave U.S. refiners uniquely prepared to adapt andtake advantage of discounts available for processinginferior crudes. Adaptation will require extensivefuture investments, however, and may take sometime to achieve.Energy Technologies on the HorizonA key issue in mid-term forecasting is the representationof changing and developing technologies. Howexisting technologies will evolve, and what new technologiesmight emerge, cannot be known with certainty.The issue is of particular importance inAEO2006, the first AEO with projections out to 2030.For each of the energy supply and demand sectorsrepresented in NEMS, there are key technologiesthat, while they may not be important in the markettoday, could play a role in the U.S. energy economy by2030 if their cost and/or performance characteristicsimprove with successful R&D. Moreover, it is possible,if not likely, that technologies not yet conceivedcould be important 20 to 30 years from now. Althoughthe direction and pace of change are unpredictable,technological progress is certain to continue.Buildings SectorA variety of new technologies could influence futureenergy use in residential and commercial buildingsbeyond the levels projected in AEO2006. Two suchtechnologies are solid-state lighting and “zeroenergy” homes.Solid-state lighting. Solid-state lighting (SSL) is anemerging technology for general lighting applicationsin buildings. Two types of SSL currently under developmentare semiconductor-based light-emitting diode(LED) and organic light-emitting diode (OLED) technologies.Both are commercially available for specializedlighting applications. Consumers are likely to befamiliar with the use of LEDs in traffic signals, exitsigns and similar displays, vehicle tail lights, andflashlights. They are less likely to be familiar withOLEDs, used in high-resolution display panels forcomputers and other electronic devices.Lighting accounted for 16 percent of total primaryenergy consumption in buildings in 2004, second onlyto space heating at 20 percent. Thus, changes in theassumptions made about development and enhancementof SSL technologies could have a significantimpact on projected total energy consumption in residentialand commercial buildings through 2030.Beginning with AEO2005, SSL based on LED technologyhas been included as an option in the NEMSCommercial Module, based on currently availableproducts. Those products are more than four times asexpensive as comparable incandescent lighting, withonly slightly greater efficiency (called “efficacy” andmeasured in lumens per watt), and so have virtuallyno impact in the AEO2006 projections. In order forLEDs and OLEDs to compete successfully in generallighting applications, several R&D hurdles must beovercome: costs must be reduced, efficacy must beincreased, and improved techniques must be developedfor generating light with a high color renderingindex (CRI) that more closely approximates the spectrumof natural light and is needed for many buildingapplications.DOE’s R&D goals call for SSL costs to fall dramaticallyby 2030. The real promise for LED lighting isthat efficacies could approach 150 to 200 lumens perwatt—more than twice the efficacy of current fluorescenttechnologies and roughly 10 times the efficacy ofincandescent lighting [30]. An additional goal is toincrease LED operating lifetimes from 30,000 hoursto 100,000 hours or more, which would far exceed theuseful lifetimes of conventional technologies (generally,between 1,000 and 20,000 hours). Longer usefuloperating lives are particularly valuable in commercialapplications where lamp replacement representsa major element of lighting costs.For general illumination applications, OLED technologylags behind LED technology. If research goals arerealized, the advantages of OLED technology will belower production costs than LEDs, similar theoreticalefficacies (200 lumens per watt for white light), andthe flexibility to serve as a source of distributed lighting,as is currently provided by fluorescent lamps.Zero energy homes. DOE’s Zero Energy Homes (ZEH)program encompasses several existing technologiesrather than a single emerging technology. The ZEHprogram takes a “whole house” approach to reducingnonrenewable energy consumption in residentialbuildings by integrating energy-efficient technologiesfor building shells and appliances with solar waterheating and PV technologies to reduce annual netconsumption of energy from nonrenewable sources tozero [31]. This is an emerging integrated technology;the ZEH concept is novel for conventional housingunits [32]. ZEH prototypes have been shown to generatemore electric energy than they consume duringEnergy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2006 41