For Further Information ...The <strong>Annual</strong> <strong>Energy</strong> <strong>Outlook</strong> <strong>2006</strong> (AEO<strong>2006</strong>) was prepared by the <strong>Energy</strong> Information Administration(EIA), under the direction of John J. Conti (john.conti@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-2222), Direc<strong>to</strong>r, IntegratedAnalysis and Forecasting; Paul D. Holtberg (paul.holtberg@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-1284), Direc<strong>to</strong>r, Demandand Integration Division; Joseph A. Beamon (jbeamon@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2025), Direc<strong>to</strong>r, Coal andElectric Power Division; Andy S. Kydes (akydes@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2222), Acting Direc<strong>to</strong>r, Oil and GasDivision and Senior Technical Advisor; and Glen E. Sweetnam (glen.sweetnam@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2188),Direc<strong>to</strong>r, International, Economic, and Greenhouse Gases Division.For ordering information and questions on other energy statistics available from EIA, please contact EIA’sNational <strong>Energy</strong> Information Center. Addresses, telephone numbers, and hours are as follows:National <strong>Energy</strong> Information Center, EI-30<strong>Energy</strong> Information AdministrationForrestal BuildingWashing<strong>to</strong>n, DC 20585Telephone: 202/586-8800E-mail: infoctr@eia.doe.govFAX: 202/586-0727World Wide Web Site: http://www.eia.doe.gov/TTY: 202/586-1181FTP Site: ftp://ftp.eia.doe.gov/9 a.m. <strong>to</strong> 5 p.m., eastern time, M-FSpecific questions about the information in this report may be directed <strong>to</strong>:Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Paul D. Holtberg (paul.holtberg@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-1284)Economic Activity . . . . . . . . . . Ronald F. Earley (rearley@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-1398)International Oil Markets . . . . . . G. Daniel Butler (gbutler@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-9503)Residential Demand . . . . . . . . . John H. Cymbalsky (jcymbals@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-4815)Commercial Demand . . . . . . . . . Erin E. Boedecker (eboedeck@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-4791)Industrial Demand . . . . . . . . . . T. Crawford Honeycutt (choneycu@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-1420)Transportation Demand . . . . . . . John D. Maples (jmaples@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-1757)Electricity Generation, Capacity . . Jeff Jones (jjones@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2038)Electricity Generation Emissions . . Zia Haq (zhaq@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2869)Electricity Prices . . . . . . . . . . . Lori Aniti (laniti@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2867)Nuclear <strong>Energy</strong>. . . . . . . . . . . . Laura Martin (laura.martin@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-1494)Renewable <strong>Energy</strong> . . . . . . . . . . Chris Namovicz (chris.namovicz@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-7120)Oil and Gas Production . . . . . . . Ted E. McCallister (tmccalli@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-4820)Natural Gas Markets. . . . . . . . . Philip M. Budzik (pbudzik@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2847)Oil Refining and Markets . . . . . . Anthony F. Radich (anthony.radich@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-0504)Coal Supply and Prices. . . . . . . . Michael L. Mellish (mmellish@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2136)Greenhouse Gas Emissions . . . . . Daniel H. Skelly (dskelly@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-1722)AEO<strong>2006</strong> will be available on the EIA web site at www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/ in early February <strong>2006</strong>. Assumptionsunderlying the projections and tables of regional and other detailed results will also be available in earlyFebruary <strong>2006</strong>, at web sites www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/assumption/ and /supplement/. Model documentationreports for the National <strong>Energy</strong> Modeling System (NEMS) are available at web site www.eia.doe.gov/bookshelf/docs.html and will be updated for AEO<strong>2006</strong> during the first few months of <strong>2006</strong>.Other contribu<strong>to</strong>rs <strong>to</strong> the report include Joseph Benneche, Bill Brown, John Cochener, Margie Daymude,Linda Doman, Robert Eynon, James Hewlett, Elizabeth Hossner, Diane Kearney, James Kendell, Nasir Khilji,Paul Kondis, Han Lin Lee, Thomas Lee, Phyllis Martin, Tom Petersik, Chetha Phang, Eugene Reiser,Laurence Sanders, Bhima Sastri, Sharon Shears, Robert Smith, Yvonne Taylor, Brian Unruh, Jose Villar,Dana Van Wagener, Steven Wade, and Peggy Wells.
DOE/EIA-0383(<strong>2006</strong>)<strong>Annual</strong> <strong>Energy</strong> <strong>Outlook</strong> <strong>2006</strong>With <strong>Projections</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>2030</strong>February <strong>2006</strong><strong>Energy</strong> Information AdministrationOffice of Integrated Analysis and ForecastingU.S. Department of <strong>Energy</strong>Washing<strong>to</strong>n, DC 20585This publication is on the WEB at:www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/This report was prepared by the <strong>Energy</strong> Information Administration, the independent statistical andanalytical agency <strong>with</strong>in the U.S. Department of <strong>Energy</strong>. The information contained herein should beattributed <strong>to</strong> the <strong>Energy</strong> Information Administration and should not be construed as advocating orreflecting any policy position of the Department of <strong>Energy</strong> or any other <strong>org</strong>anization.
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Issues in Focusrevolutionize transp
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Issues in Focussynthesis gas. Any o
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Issues in Focusenvironmental impact
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Issues in Focussubstantial incremen
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Issues in FocusMarket penetration o
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Issues in FocusAccording to most an
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Issues in FocusThere are two leadin
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Issues in Focuscost reductions are
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Issues in Focusthe early years of t
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Market TrendsThe projections in AEO
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Trends in Economic ActivityOutput G
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Energy DemandAverage Energy Use per
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Residential Sector Energy DemandDem
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Commercial Sector Energy DemandEcon
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Industrial Sector Energy DemandAdva
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Industrial Sector Energy DemandEner
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Transportation Sector Energy Demand
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Electricity Demand and SupplyContin
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Electricity SupplyEPACT2005 Tax Cre
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Electricity From Renewable SourcesT
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Electricity Alternative CasesFaster
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Natural Gas DemandIncreases in Natu
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Natural Gas PricesProjected Natural
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Natural Gas Alternative CasesNatura
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Oil Prices and ProductionOil Prices
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Oil Price and Technology CasesU.S.
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Refined Petroleum ProductsTransport
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Ethanol and Synthetic FuelsU.S. Dem
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Coal Mine Employment and Coal Price
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Coal ConsumptionCoal-Fired Generato
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Carbon Dioxide EmissionsHigher Ener
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Nitrogen Oxide and Mercury Emission
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Forecast ComparisonsOnly GII produc
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Forecast Comparisonsconsumption and
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Forecast ComparisonsNatural GasPubl
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Forecast Comparisonsproviding about
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Forecast Comparisonsrefiners acquis
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Forecast Comparisonsconsumption. In
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Notes and SourcesText NotesLegislat
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Notes and Sources[48]These costs re
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Notes and SourcesTable Notes and So
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Notes and SourcesFigure 28. Energy
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Notes and SourcesFigure 81. Net imp
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Appendixes
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Reference Case
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Appendix BEconomic Growth Case Comp
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Economic Growth Case Comparisons
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Economic Growth Case Comparisons
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Economic Growth Case Comparisons
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Price Case Comparisons
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Price Case Comparisons
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Price Case Comparisons
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Price Case Comparisons
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Price Case Comparisons
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Appendix DResults from Side Cases
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Results from Side Cases
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Results from Side Cases
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Results from Side Cases
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Results from Side Cases
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Results from Side Cases
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Results from Side Cases
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Results from Side Cases
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NEMS Overview and Brief Description
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NEMS Overview and Brief Description
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NEMS Overview and Brief Description
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NEMS Overview and Brief Description
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NEMS Overview and Brief Description
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NEMS Overview and Brief Description
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Appendix FRegional MapsEnergy Infor
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Regional Maps Energy Information
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Regional Maps Energy Information Ad
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Regional MapsEnergy Information Adm
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The Energy Information Administrati