Annual Energy Outlook 2006 with Projections to 2030 - Usinfo.org

Energy DemandAverage Energy Use per PersonIncreases Through 2030Figure 31. Energy use per capita and per dollar ofgross domestic product, 1980-2030 (index, 1980 = 1)1.41.21.00.80.60.40.2HistoryProjectionsEnergyuse percapitaEnergyuse perdollarof GDPCoal and Petroleum Lead Increasesin Primary Energy UseFigure 32. Primary energy use by fuel, 2004-2030(quadrillion Btu)150125100755025Other renewablesHydropowerNuclearCoalNatural gasPetroleum0.01980 1995 2004 2015 203002004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Population growth is a key determinant of totalenergy consumption, closely linked to rising demandfor housing, services, and travel. Energy consumptionper capita, controlling for population growth, showsthe combined effect of other factors, such as economicgrowth and technology improvement. In the AEO-2006 reference case, energy consumption per capitagrows faster than it has in recent history (Figure 31),as a result of continued growth in disposable income.In dollar terms, the economy as a whole is becomingless dependent on energy, the Nation’s growing relianceon imported fuel notwithstanding. Projectedenergy intensity, as measured by energy use per 2000dollar of GDP, declines at an average annual rate of1.8 percent in the reference case. Efficiency gains andfaster growth in less energy-intensive industriesaccount for much of the decline, more than offsettingthe expected growth in demand for energy services inbuildings, transportation, and electricity generation.Energy intensity declines more rapidly in the nearterm, as consumers and businesses react to highenergy prices. As energy prices moderate over the longerterm, energy intensity declines at a slower rate. Asimilar pattern occurred from 1986 to 1992, whenenergy prices were generally falling.AEO2006 does not assume policy-induced conservationmeasures beyond those in existing legislationand regulation, nor does it assume behavioralchanges that could result in greater energy conservation,beyond those experienced in the past.Total primary energy consumption, including energyfor electricity generation, grows by 1.1 percent peryear from 2004 to 2030 (Figure 32). Fossil fuelsaccount for 88 percent of the growth, with coal useincreasing by 53 percent, petroleum by 34 percent,and natural gas by 20 percent over that period. Theincrease in coal consumption occurs primarily in theelectric power sector, with strong growth in electricitydemand and favorable economics promptingincreases in coal-fired baseload capacity. More thanone-half of the increase in coal consumption isexpected after 2020, when higher natural gas pricesmake coal the fuel choice for most new power plants.Growth in natural gas consumption for power generationis restrained by its high price relative to coal.Industry and buildings account for 71 percent of theincrease in natural gas consumption from 2004 to2030.Transportation accounts for 87 percent of theincrease in petroleum consumption, dominated bygrowth in fuel use for light-duty vehicles. Fuel use byfreight trucks, second in energy use among travelmodes, grows by 1.9 percent per year on average, thefastest annual rate among the major forms of transport.Petroleum use in the buildings sectors, mostlyfor space heating, declines slightly in the projection.AEO2006 projects rapid growth in energy productionfrom nonhydroelectric renewable sources, partly as aresult of State mandates for renewable electricitygeneration and renewable energy production taxcredits. An increase in power generation from nuclearenergy is also projected, as tax credits spur constructionof new nuclear plants between 2014 and 2018.Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2006 65