Annual Energy Outlook 2006 with Projections to 2030 - Usinfo.org

Notes and SourcesFigure 28. Energy expenditures as share of gross domesticproduct, 1970-2030: History: U.S. Departmentof Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; and Energy InformationAdministration, Annual Energy Review 2004,DOE/EIA-0384(2004) (Washington, DC, August 2005).Projections: AEO2006 National Energy Modeling System,run AEO2006.D111905A.Figure 29. World oil prices in three cases, 1980-2030:History: Energy Information Administration, Annual EnergyReview 2004, DOE/EIA-0384(2004) (Washington, DC,August 2005). Projections: Table C1.Figure 30. U.S. gross petroleum imports by source,2004-2030: AEO2006 National Energy Modeling System,run AEO2006.D111905A.Figure 31. Energy use per capita and per dollar ofgross domestic product, 1980-2030: History: EnergyInformation Administration, Annual Energy Review 2004,DOE/EIA-0384(2004) (Washington, DC, August 2005).Projections: Energy use per capita: Calculated fromdata in Table A2. Energy use per dollar of GDP: TableA19.Figure 32. Primary energy use by fuel, 2004-2030:History: Energy Information Administration, Annual EnergyReview 2004, DOE/EIA-0384(2004) (Washington, DC,August 2005). Projections: Tables A1 and A17.Figure 33. Delivered energy use by fuel, 1980-2030:History: Energy Information Administration, Annual EnergyReview 2004, DOE/EIA-0384(2004) (Washington, DC,August 2005). Projections: Table A2.Figure 34. Primary energy consumption by sector,1980-2030: History: Energy Information Administration,Annual Energy Review 2004, DOE/EIA-0384(2004) (Washington,DC, August 2005). Projections: Table A2.Figure 35. Delivered residential energy consumptionper capita by fuel, 1980-2030: History: Energy InformationAdministration, State Energy Data Report 2001,DOE/EIA-0214(2001) (Washington, DC, November 2004),and Annual Energy Review 2004, DOE/EIA-0384(2004)(Washington, DC, August 2005). Projections: AEO2006National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2006.D111905A.Figure 36. Delivered residential energy consumptionby end use, 2001, 2004, 2015, and 2030: History:Energy Information Administration, “Residential EnergyConsumption Survey.” Projections: Table A4. Note: Although2001 is the last year of historical data for many ofthe detailed end-use consumption concepts (e.g., spaceheating, cooling), 2004 data, taken from EIA’s Annual EnergyReview 2004, is used as the base year for the more aggregatestatistics shown in AEO2006. For illustrative purposes,EIA estimates for the detailed end-use consumptionconcepts, consistent with this historical information, areused to show growth rates.Figure 37. Efficiency indicators for selected residentialappliances, 2004 and 2030: Energy Information Administration,Technology Forecast Updates—Residentialand Commercial Building Technologies—Advanced AdoptionCase (Navigant Consulting, Inc., September 2004); andAEO2006 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO-2006.D111905A.Figure 38. Variation from reference case deliveredresidential energy use in three alternative cases,2004-2030: Table D1.Figure 39. Delivered commercial energy consumptionper capita by fuel, 1980-2030: History: Energy InformationAdministration, State Energy Data Report 2001,DOE/EIA-0214(2001) (Washington, DC, November 2004),and Annual Energy Review 2004, DOE/EIA-0384(2004)(Washington, DC, August 2005). Projections: AEO2006National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2006.D111905A.Figure 40. Delivered commercial energy intensity byend use, 2004, 2015, and 2030: Table A5.Figure 41. Efficiency indicators for selected commercialequipment, 2004 and 2030: Energy InformationAdministration, Technology Forecast Updates—Residentialand Commercial Building Technologies—AdvancedAdoption Case (Navigant Consulting, Inc., September2004); and AEO2006 National Energy Modeling System,run AEO2006.D111905A.Figure 42. Variation from reference case deliveredcommercial energy intensity in three alternativecases, 2004-2030: Table D1.Figure 43. Buildings sector electricity generationfrom advanced technologies in two alternativecases, 2030: AEO2006 National Energy Modeling System,runs AEO2006.D111905A, BLDHIGH.D112205A, andBLDBEST.D112205C.Figure 44. Industrial energy intensity by two measures,1980-2030: History: Energy Information Administration,Annual Energy Review 2004, DOE/EIA-0384(2004)(Washington, DC, August 2005). Projections: AEO2006National Energy Modeling System, run AEO2006.D111905A.Figure 45. Energy intensity in the industrial sector,2004: AEO2006 National Energy Modeling System, runAEO2006.D111905A.Figure 46. Average growth in industrial output anddelivered energy consumption by sector, 2004-2030:AEO2006 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO-2006.D111905A.Figure 47. Projected energy intensity in 2030 relativeto 2004, by industry: AEO2006 National EnergyModeling System, run AEO2006.D111905A.Figure 48. Variation from reference case deliveredindustrial energy use in two alternative cases, 2004-2030: Table D2.Figure 49. Transportation energy use per capita,1980-2030: History: Energy Information Administration,Annual Energy Review 2004, DOE/EIA-0384(2004) (Washington,DC, August 2005). Projections: AEO2006 NationalEnergy Modeling System, run AEO2006.D111905A.Figure 50. Transportation travel demand by mode,1980-2030: History: Federal Highway Administration,Highway Statistics 2002 (Washington, DC, November2003), Table VM-1, p. V-57, web site www.fhwa.dot.gov/policy/ohim/hs02/pdf/vm1.pdf, and previous annual issues.Projections: AEO2006 National Energy Modeling System,run AEO2006.D111905A.126 Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2006