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Annual Energy Outlook 2006 with Projections to 2030 - Usinfo.org

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Notes and SourcesFigure 81. Net imports of liquefied natural gas inthree LNG supply cases, 1990-<strong>2030</strong>: His<strong>to</strong>ry: <strong>Energy</strong>Information Administration, <strong>Annual</strong> <strong>Energy</strong> Review 2004,DOE/EIA-0384(2004) (Washing<strong>to</strong>n, DC, August 2005).<strong>Projections</strong>: AEO<strong>2006</strong> National <strong>Energy</strong> Modeling System,runs AEO<strong>2006</strong>.D111905A, LOLNG06.D120405A, andHILNG06.D120405.Figure 82. Lower 48 natural gas wellhead prices inthree LNG supply cases, 1990-<strong>2030</strong>: His<strong>to</strong>ry: <strong>Energy</strong>Information Administration, <strong>Annual</strong> <strong>Energy</strong> Review 2004,DOE/EIA-0384(2004) (Washing<strong>to</strong>n, DC, August 2005).<strong>Projections</strong>: Table D11.Figure 83. World oil prices in the reference case,1990-<strong>2030</strong>: His<strong>to</strong>ry: <strong>Energy</strong> Information Administration,<strong>Annual</strong> <strong>Energy</strong> Review 2004, DOE/EIA-0384(2004) (Washing<strong>to</strong>n,DC, August 2005). <strong>Projections</strong>: Table A1.Figure 84. Domestic crude oil production by source,1990-<strong>2030</strong>: His<strong>to</strong>ry: <strong>Energy</strong> Information Administration,Petroleum Supply <strong>Annual</strong> 1990, DOE/EIA-0340(90) (Washing<strong>to</strong>n,DC, May 1991), and Office of Integrated Analysisand Forecasting. <strong>Projections</strong>: AEO<strong>2006</strong> National <strong>Energy</strong>Modeling System, run AEO<strong>2006</strong>.D111905A.Figure 85. World oil prices in three cases, 1990-<strong>2030</strong>:His<strong>to</strong>ry: <strong>Energy</strong> Information Administration, <strong>Annual</strong> <strong>Energy</strong>Review 2004, DOE/EIA-0384(2004) (Washing<strong>to</strong>n, DC,August 2005). <strong>Projections</strong>: Table C1.Figure 86. Total U.S. petroleum production in threeprice cases, 1990-<strong>2030</strong>: His<strong>to</strong>ry: <strong>Energy</strong> InformationAdministration, <strong>Annual</strong> <strong>Energy</strong> Review 2004, DOE/EIA-0384(2004) (Washing<strong>to</strong>n, DC, August 2005). <strong>Projections</strong>:Table C4.Figure 87. U.S. syncrude production from oil shale inthe high price case, 2004-<strong>2030</strong>: AEO<strong>2006</strong> National <strong>Energy</strong>Modeling System, run HP<strong>2006</strong>.D113005A.Figure 88. Total U.S. crude oil production in threetechnology cases, 1990-<strong>2030</strong>: His<strong>to</strong>ry: <strong>Energy</strong> InformationAdministration, <strong>Annual</strong> <strong>Energy</strong> Review 2004, DOE/EIA-0384(2004) (Washing<strong>to</strong>n, DC, August 2005). <strong>Projections</strong>:Table D10.Figure 89. Alaskan oil production in the referenceand ANWR cases, 1990-<strong>2030</strong>: His<strong>to</strong>ry: <strong>Energy</strong> InformationAdministration, <strong>Annual</strong> <strong>Energy</strong> Review 2004, DOE/EIA-0384(2004) (Washing<strong>to</strong>n, DC, August 2005). <strong>Projections</strong>:Table D12.Figure 90. U.S. net imports of oil in the referenceand ANWR cases, 1990-<strong>2030</strong>: His<strong>to</strong>ry: <strong>Energy</strong> InformationAdministration, <strong>Annual</strong> <strong>Energy</strong> Review 2004, DOE/EIA-0384(2004) (Washing<strong>to</strong>n, DC, August 2005). <strong>Projections</strong>:Table D12.Figure 91. Consumption of petroleum products,1990-<strong>2030</strong>: His<strong>to</strong>ry: <strong>Energy</strong> Information Administration,<strong>Annual</strong> <strong>Energy</strong> Review 2004, DOE/EIA-0384(2004) (Washing<strong>to</strong>n,DC, August 2005). <strong>Projections</strong>: Table A11.Figure 92. Domestic refinery distillation capacity,1990-<strong>2030</strong>: His<strong>to</strong>ry: <strong>Energy</strong> Information Administration,<strong>Annual</strong> <strong>Energy</strong> Review 2004, DOE/EIA-0384(2004) (Washing<strong>to</strong>n,DC, August 2005). <strong>Projections</strong>: Table A11.Figure 93. U.S. petroleum product demand and domesticpetroleum supply, 1990-<strong>2030</strong>: His<strong>to</strong>ry: <strong>Energy</strong>Information Administration, <strong>Annual</strong> <strong>Energy</strong> Review 2004,DOE/EIA-0384(2004) (Washing<strong>to</strong>n, DC, August 2005).<strong>Projections</strong>: Tables A11.Figure 94. Components of retail gasoline prices,2004, 2015, and <strong>2030</strong>: AEO<strong>2006</strong> <strong>Energy</strong> Modeling System,run AEO<strong>2006</strong>.D111905A.Figure 95. U.S. ethanol fuel consumption in threeprice cases, 1995-<strong>2030</strong>: His<strong>to</strong>ry: <strong>Energy</strong> InformationAdministration, <strong>Annual</strong> <strong>Energy</strong> Review 2004, DOE/EIA-0384(2004) (Washing<strong>to</strong>n, DC, August 2005). <strong>Projections</strong>:AEO<strong>2006</strong> National <strong>Energy</strong> Modeling System, runsAEO<strong>2006</strong>.D111905A, LP<strong>2006</strong>.D120105A, and HP<strong>2006</strong>.D113005A.Figure 96. Coal-<strong>to</strong>-liquids and gas-<strong>to</strong>-liquids productionin two price cases, 2004-<strong>2030</strong>: Table C4.Figure 97. Coal production by region, 1970-<strong>2030</strong>: His<strong>to</strong>ry:1970-1990: <strong>Energy</strong> Information Administration(EIA), The U.S. Coal Industry, 1970-1990: Two Decades ofChange, DOE/EIA-0559 (Washing<strong>to</strong>n, DC, November2002); 1991-2000: EIA, Coal Industry <strong>Annual</strong>, DOE/EIA-0584 (various years); 2001-2004: EIA, <strong>Annual</strong> CoalReport 2004, DOE/EIA-0584(2004) (Washing<strong>to</strong>n, DC, November2005), and previous issues; and EIA, Short-Term<strong>Energy</strong> <strong>Outlook</strong> (Washing<strong>to</strong>n, DC, September 2005). <strong>Projections</strong>:Table A15.Figure 98. Distribution of domestic coal by demandand supply region, 2003 and <strong>2030</strong>: 2003: <strong>Energy</strong> InformationAdministration (EIA), Form EIA-6, “Coal DistributionReport—<strong>Annual</strong>.” <strong>Projections</strong>: AEO<strong>2006</strong> National<strong>Energy</strong> Modeling System, run AEO<strong>2006</strong>.D111905A. Note:The Eastern Demand Region includes the New England,Middle Atlantic, South Atlantic, East North Central, andEast South Central Census Divisions. The Western DemandRegion includes the West North Central, West SouthCentral, Mountain, and Pacific Census Divisions.Figure 99. U.S. coal mine employment by region,1970-<strong>2030</strong>: His<strong>to</strong>ry: 1970-1976: U.S. Department of theInterior, Bureau of Mines, Minerals Yearbook (variousyears); 1977-1978: <strong>Energy</strong> Information Administration(EIA), <strong>Energy</strong> Data Report, Coal—Bituminous and Lignite,DOE/EIA-0118 (Washing<strong>to</strong>n, DC, various years), and <strong>Energy</strong>Data Report, Coal—Pennsylvania Anthracite, DOE/EIA-0119 (Washing<strong>to</strong>n, DC, various years); 1979-1992:EIA, Coal Production, DOE/EIA-0118 (various years);1993-2000: EIA, Coal Industry <strong>Annual</strong>, DOE/EIA-0584(Washing<strong>to</strong>n, DC, various years); 2001-2004: EIA, <strong>Annual</strong>Coal Report 2004, DOE/EIA-0584(2004) (Washing<strong>to</strong>n, DC,November 2005), and previous issues. <strong>Projections</strong>: AEO-<strong>2006</strong> National <strong>Energy</strong> Modeling System, run AEO<strong>2006</strong>.D111905A.Figure 100. Average minemouth price of coal by region,1990-<strong>2030</strong>: His<strong>to</strong>ry: 1990-2000: <strong>Energy</strong> InformationAdministration (EIA), Coal Industry <strong>Annual</strong>, DOE/EIA-0584 (various years); 2001-2004: EIA, <strong>Annual</strong> CoalReport 2004, DOE/EIA-0584(2004) (Washing<strong>to</strong>n, DC, November2005), and previous issues. <strong>Projections</strong>: AEO<strong>2006</strong>National <strong>Energy</strong> Modeling System, run AEO<strong>2006</strong>.D111905A.128 <strong>Energy</strong> Information Administration / <strong>Annual</strong> <strong>Energy</strong> <strong>Outlook</strong> <strong>2006</strong>

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