Annual Energy Outlook 2006 with Projections to 2030 - Usinfo.org

Notes and SourcesTable Notes and SourcesNote: Tables indicated as sources in these notes referto the tables in Appendixes A, B, C, and D of thisreport.Table 1. Total energy supply and disposition in theAEO2006 reference case: summary, 2003-2030:AEO2006 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO-2006.D111905A. Notes: Quantities are derived from historicalvolumes and assumed thermal conversion factors.Other production includes liquid hydrogen, methanol, supplementalnatural gas, and some inputs to refineries. Netimports of petroleum include crude oil, petroleum products,unfinished oils, alcohols, ethers, and blending components.Other net imports include coal coke and electricity. Somerefinery inputs appear as petroleum product consumption.Other consumption includes net electricity imports, liquidhydrogen, and methanol.Table 2. CARB emissions standards for light-duty vehicles,model years 2009-2016: California Air ResourcesBoard, California Exhaust Emission Standards and TestProcedures for 2001 and Subsequent Model Passenger Cars,Light-Duty Trucks, and Medium-Duty Vehicles (Sacramento,CA, August 4, 2005).Table 3. Proposed light truck CAFE standards bymodel year and footprint category: National HighwayTraffic Safety Administration, “Average Fuel EconomyStandards for Light Trucks Model Years 2008-2011,” 49CFR Parts 523, 533 and 537, Docket No. 2005-22223, RIN2127-AJ61 (Washington, DC, August, 2005).Table 4. Key projections for light truck fuel economyin the alternative CAFE standards case, 2011-2030:AEO2006 National Energy Modeling System, runsAEO2006.D111905A and ALTCAFE.D121505A.Table 5. Basic features of State renewable energy requirementsand goals enacted since 2003: Energy InformationAdministration, Office of Integrated Analysisand Forecasting.Table 6. Major changes in existing State renewableenergy requirements and goals since 2003: Energy InformationAdministration, Office of Integrated Analysisand Forecasting.Table 7. New U.S. renewable energy capacity, 2004-2005: Energy Information Administration, Office of IntegratedAnalysis and Forecasting.Table 8. Estimates of national trends in annual emissionsof sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides, 2003-2020: EPA Data: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,Regulatory Impact Analysis for the Final Clean Air InterstateRule, EPA-452/R-05-002 (Washington, DC, March2005), Table 7-2, p. 196. Projections: AEO2006 NationalEnergy Modeling System, run AEO2006.D111905A.Table 9. Macroeconomic model estimates of economicimpacts from oil price increases: H.G. Huntington,The Economic Consequences of Higher Crude OilPrices, EMF SR 9 (Stanford, CA, October 2005), web sitewww.stanford.edu/group/EMF/publications/doc/EMFSR9.pdf.Table 10. Time-series estimates of economic impactsfrom oil price increases: R. Jimenez-Rodriguez and M.Sanchez. “Oil Price Shocks and Real GDP Growth: EmpiricalEvidence for Some OECD Countries,” Applied Economics,Vol. 37, No. 2 (February 2005), pp. 201-228.Table 11. Summary of U.S. oil price-GDP elasticities:H.G. Huntington, The Economic Consequences of HigherCrude Oil Prices, EMF SR 9 (Stanford, CA, October 2005),web site www.stanford.edu/group/EMF/publications/doc/EMFSR9.pdf.Table 12. Economic indicators in the reference, highprice, and low price cases, 2005-2030: AEO2006 NationalEnergy Modeling System, runs AEO2006.D111905A,LP2006.D120105A, and HP2006.D113005A.Table 13. Technologies expected to have significantimpacts on new light-duty vehicles: Energy InformationAdministration, Office of Integrated Analysis andForecasting.Table 14. Nonconventional liquid fuels productionin the AEO2006 reference and high price cases, 2030:AEO2006 National Energy Modeling System, runs AEO-2006.D111905A and HP2006.D113005A.Table 15. Projected changes in U.S. greenhouse gasemissions, gross domestic product, and greenhousegas intensity, 2002-2020: AEO2006 National EnergyModeling System, run AEO2006.D111905A.Table 16. Costs of producing electricity from newplants, 2015 and 2030: AEO2006 National EnergyModeling System, run AEO2006.D111905A.Table 17. Technically recoverable U.S. natural gasresources as of January 1, 2004: Energy InformationAdministration, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting.Table 18. Technically recoverable U.S. crude oil resourcesas of January 1, 2004: Energy Information Administration,Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting.Figure Notes and SourcesNote: Tables indicated as sources in these notes referto the tables in Appendixes A, B, C, and D of thisreport.Figure 1. Energy prices, 1980-2030: History: EnergyInformation Administration, Annual Energy Review 2004,DOE/EIA-0384(2004) (Washington, DC, August 2005).Projections: Table A1.Figure 2. Delivered energy consumption by sector,1980-2030: History: Energy Information Administration,Annual Energy Review 2004, DOE/EIA-0384(2004) (Washington,DC, August 2005). Projections: Table A2.Figure 3. Energy consumption by fuel, 1980-2030:History: Energy Information Administration, Annual EnergyReview 2004, DOE/EIA-0384(2004) (Washington, DC,August 2005). Projections: Tables A1 and A18.124 Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2006