Annual Energy Outlook 2006 with Projections to 2030 - Usinfo.org

Transportation Sector Energy DemandVehicle Technology Advances ReduceTransportation Energy DemandFigure 53. Changes in projected transportationfuel use in two alternative cases, 2010 and 2030(percent change from reference case)302010High technology2005 technology2010 2030Technology Assumptions IncludeImprovements in Vehicle EfficiencyFigure 54. Changes in projected transportationfuel efficiency in two alternative cases,2010 and 2030 (percent change from reference case)40202010 2030High technology2005 technology0-100-20-30LightdutyvehiclesFreighttrucksAircraftLightdutyvehiclesFreighttrucksAircraft-20LightdutyvehiclesFreighttrucksAircraftLightdutyvehiclesFreighttrucksAircraftIn the AEO2006 reference case, delivered energy usein the transportation sector increases from 27.8quadrillion Btu in 2004 to 39.7 quadrillion Btu in2030. In the high technology case, the projection for2030 is 2.8 quadrillion Btu (7.1 percent) lower, withabout 54 percent (1.5 quadrillion Btu) of the differenceattributed to efficiency improvements in lightdutyvehicles (Figure 53) as a result of increasedpenetration of advanced technologies, includingvariable valve lift, electrically driven power steeringpumps, and advanced electronic transmission controls.Similarly, projected fuel use by heavy freighttrucks in 2030 is 0.1 quadrillion Btu (0.9 percent)lower in the high technology case than in the referencecase, and advanced aircraft technologies reducefuel use for air travel by 1.0 quadrillion Btu (23.7 percent)in 2030.In the 2005 technology case, with new technology efficienciesfixed at 2005 levels, efficiency improvementscan result only from stock turnover. As a result, totaldelivered energy demand for transportation in 2030 is3.7 quadrillion Btu (9.2 percent) higher in 2030 in the2005 technology case than in the reference case. Fueluse for air travel in 2030 is 1.0 quadrillion Btu (23.4percent) higher in the 2005 technology case than inthe reference case, and freight trucks use 0.9 quadrillionBtu (11.9 percent) more fuel in 2030 [87].The high technology case assumes lower costs andhigher efficiencies for new transportation technologies.Advances in conventional technologies increasethe average fuel economy of new light-duty vehicles in2030 from 29.2 miles per gallon in the reference caseto 32.1 miles per gallon in the high technology case.The average efficiency of the light-duty vehicle stockis 20.6 miles per gallon in 2010 and 24.4 miles per gallonin 2030 in the high technology case, comparedwith 20.4 miles per gallon in 2010 and 22.5 miles pergallon in 2030 in the reference case (Figure 54).For freight trucks, average stock efficiency in thehigh technology case is 0.6 percent higher in 2010 and1.1 percent higher in 2030 than the reference caseprojection of 6.8 miles per gallon. Advanced aircrafttechnologies increase aircraft efficiency by 9.3 percentin 2010 and 31.0 percent in 2030 relative to thereference case projections.In the 2005 technology case, the average fuel economyof new light-duty vehicles is 26.2 miles per gallon in2030, and the average for the entire light-duty vehiclestock is 20.7 miles per gallon in 2030. For freighttrucks, the average stock efficiency in 2030 is 6.1miles per gallon. Aircraft efficiency in 2030 averages61.6 seat-miles per gallon in the 2005 technology case,compared with 76.0 seat-miles per gallon in the referencecase.76 Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2006