Annual Energy Outlook 2006 with Projections to 2030 - Usinfo.org

NEMS Overview and Brief Description of CasesTable E1. Summary of the AEO2006 casesCase nameReferenceLow Economic GrowthHigh Economic GrowthLow PriceHigh PriceResidential:2005 TechnologyResidential:High TechnologyResidential: BestAvailable TechnologyCommercial:2005 TechnologyCommercial:High TechnologyCommercial: BestAvailable TechnologyIndustrial:2005 TechnologyIndustrial:High TechnologyTransportation:2005 TechnologyDescriptionBaseline economic growth (3.0 percent per year), worldoil price, and technology assumptions. Completeprojection tables in Appendix A.Gross domestic product grows at an average annual rateof 2.4 percent from 2004 through 2030. Subset ofprojection tables in Appendix B.Gross domestic product grows at an average annual rateof 3.5 percent from 2004 through 2030. Subset ofprojection tables in Appendix B.More optimistic assumptions for worldwide crude oil andnatural gas resources than in the reference case. Worldoil prices are $28 per barrel in 2030, compared with $50per barrel in the reference case, and lower 48 wellheadnatural gas prices $4.96 per thousand cubic feet in 2030,compared with $5.92 in the reference case. Subset ofprojection tables in Appendix C.More pessimistic assumptions for worldwide crude oil andnatural gas resources than in the reference case. Worldoil prices are about $90 per barrel in 2030 and lower 48wellhead natural gas prices $7.72 per thousand cubic feetin 2030. Subset of projection tables in Appendix C.Future equipment purchases based on equipmentavailable in 2005. Existing building shell efficiencies fixedat 2005 levels. Partial projection tables in Appendix D.Earlier availability, lower costs, and higher efficienciesassumed for more advanced equipment. Building shellefficiencies increase by 22 percent from 2003 values by2030. Partial projection tables in Appendix D.Future equipment purchases and new building shellsbased on most efficient technologies available. Buildingshell efficiencies increase by 26 percent from 2003 valuesby 2030. Partial projection tables in Appendix D.Future equipment purchases based on equipmentavailable in 2005. Building shell efficiencies fixed at 2005levels. Partial projection tables in Appendix D.Earlier availability, lower costs, and higher efficienciesassumed for more advanced equipment. Building shellefficiencies for new and existing buildings increase by10.4 and 7.4 percent, respectively, from 1999 values by2030. Partial projection tables in Appendix D.Future equipment purchases based on most efficienttechnologies available. Building shell efficiencies for newand existing buildings increase by 12.4 and 8.9 percent,respectively, from 1999 values by 2030. Partial projectiontables in Appendix D.Efficiency of plant and equipment fixed at 2005 levels.Partial projection tables in Appendix D.Earlier availability, lower costs, and higher efficienciesassumed for more advanced equipment. Partial projectiontables in Appendix D.Efficiencies for new equipment in all modes of travel fixedat 2005 levels. Partial projection tables in Appendix D.IntegrationmodeFullyintegratedFullyintegratedFullyintegratedFullyintegratedFullyintegratedWithcommercialWithcommercialWithcommercialWithresidentialWithresidentialWithresidentialReferencein textReference inAppendix E— —p. 62 p. 203p. 62 p. 203p. 64 p. 206p. 64 p. 206p. 68 p. 206p. 68 p. 207p. 68 p. 207p. 70 p. 207p. 70 p. 207p. 70 p. 207Standalone p. 73 p. 207Standalone p. 73 p. 207Standalone p. 76 p. 208204 Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2006