Annual Energy Outlook 2006 with Projections to 2030 - Usinfo.org

Transportation Sector Energy DemandNew Technologies Promise ImprovedFuel Economy for Light-Duty VehiclesFigure 51. Average fuel economy of new light-dutyvehicles, 1980-2030 (miles per gallon)3530252015105HistoryProjections01980 1995 2004 2015 2030CarsAll light-dutyvehiclesLight trucksThe average fuel economy of new light-duty vehicles,which peaked at 26.2 miles per gallon in 1987,declined to 24.9 miles per gallon in 2004 (Figure 51).The downward trend in light-duty vehicle fuel economyresulted from a rapid increase in sales of lighttrucks (sport utility vehicles, minivans, and pickups),which were required to meet a CAFE standard of 20.7miles per gallon, compared with 27.5 miles per gallonfor cars. In April 2003, NHTSA increased the CAFEstandards for light trucks to 21 miles per gallon formodel year 2005, 21.6 miles per gallon for model year2006, and 22.2 miles per gallon for 2007, and morerecently the agency has proposed a restructuring oflight truck standards, with additional increases infuel efficiency standards for model years 2008through 2011. AEO2006 assumes no changes in currentlypromulgated fuel efficiency standards for carsand light trucks.Reversing the historic trend, the average fuel economyof new light-duty vehicles increases in the referencecase as a result of advances in fuel-savingtechnologies. Fuel economy for new light-duty vehiclesis 29.2 miles per gallon in 2030. Although higherpersonal incomes are expected to increase demand forlarger, more powerful vehicles, and the averagehorsepower for new cars is 27 percent above the 2004average in 2030, advanced technologies and materialspermit increases in performance and size of newvehicles without sacrificing improvements in fueleconomy.Advanced Technologies Are ProjectedTo Exceed 25 Percent of Sales by 2030Figure 52. Sales of advanced technology light-dutyvehicles by fuel type, 2015 and 2030(thousand vehicles sold)2,500 HybridsAlcohol2,000Turbo direct injection dieselGaseousElectric1,500Fuel cell1,00050002015 2030Sales of advanced technology vehicles, representingautomotive technologies that use alternative fuels orrequire advanced engine technology, reach 5.7 millionper year (Figure 52) and make up more than 25 percentof total light-duty vehicle sales in 2030. Hybridelectric vehicles (including those specifically designedto use electric motors and batteries in combinationwith a combustion engine to drive the vehicle andthose incorporating only an integrated starter generatorfor fuel economy) are anticipated to sell well,with 1.1 million units sold in 2015, increasing to 2.4million units in 2030. Sales of turbo direct injectiondiesel vehicles increase to 638,500 units in 2015 and1.7 million units in 2030. Sales of alcohol flexiblefueledvehicles continue to increase, with 1.3 millionsold in 2030.About 40 percent of advanced technology sales are asa result of Federal and State mandates for fuel economystandards, emissions programs, or other energyregulations. Currently, manufacturers selling alcoholflexible-fueled vehicles receive fuel economy creditsthat count toward compliance with CAFE regulations.In the AEO2006 reference case, the majority ofgasoline hybrid, electric, and fuel cell vehicle salesresult from compliance with low-emission vehicleprograms in California, Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts,New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island,Washington, and Vermont. AEO2006 does notinclude the impacts of California Assembly Bill 1493,which effectively sets carbon emission standards forlight-duty vehicles, because of uncertainty about theState’s ability to enforce the standards.Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2006 75