Annual Energy Outlook 2006 with Projections to 2030 - Usinfo.org

Electricity SupplyEPACT2005 Tax Credits Are ExpectedTo Stimulate New Nuclear BuildsFigure 59. Electricity generation from nuclearpower, 1973-2030 (billion kilowatthours)1,000State Programs Support RenewableGenerating Capacity AdditionsFigure 60. Additions of renewable generatingcapacity, 2004-2030 (gigawatts)148001210UnplannedOther planned600840064State mandates20020HistoryProjections1970 1985 1995 2004 2015 20300HydropowerBiomass GeothermalLandfillgasSolarWindIn the AEO2006 reference case, nuclear capacityincreases from 99.6 gigawatts in 2004 to 108.8 gigawattsin 2030. The increase includes 6.0 gigawatts ofcapacity at new plants stimulated by EPACT2005 taxincentives and 3.2 gigawatts of capacity expansion atexisting plants. EPACT2005 provides an 8-year productiontax credit of 1.8 cents per kilowatthour for upto 6 gigawatts of capacity built before 2021. If thecapacity limit is reached before 2020, the credit programends, and no additional units are expected. Theincrease in capacity at existing units assumes that alluprates approved, pending, or expected by the NRCwill be carried out.All existing nuclear plants are expected to continueoperating through 2030, although most will bebeyond their original license expiration dates by then.As of September 2005, the NRC had approved licenserenewals for 35 nuclear units, and 14 other applicationswere being reviewed. As many as 28 additionalapplicants have announced intentions to pursuelicense renewals over the next 7 years, indicating astrong interest in maintaining the existing stock ofnuclear plants.Because of the increase in capacity, from new capacityand uprates, and the continued strong performanceof existing units, nuclear generation grows from 789billion kilowatthours in 2004 to 871 billion kilowatthoursin 2030 (Figure 59). That increase is not sufficient,however, for nuclear power to maintain itscurrent 20-percent share of total generation. In 2030,even with a national average capacity factor of morethan 90 percent, nuclear power accounts for about 15percent of total U.S. generation.From 2004 to 2030, 26.4 gigawatts of new renewablegenerating capacity is added in the reference case,including 21.9 gigawatts in the electric power sectorand 4.5 gigawatts in the end-use sectors. Nearlyone-half of the total (11.7 gigawatts in the electricpower sector and 0.75 in the end-use sectors) is atleast partially stimulated by State programs, with theremainder resulting from commercial projects.Overall, 9.0 gigawatts of central-station capacity, primarilyin near-term projects, results from specificState standards: 3.7 gigawatts in Texas, 3.4 in California,0.9 in Nevada, and 0.5 in Minnesota. ThreeStates—Montana, New Mexico, and New York—add100 to 200 megawatts each. Ten States—Arizona,Colorado, Hawaii, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maine,New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Vermont, and Wisconsin—addless than 100 megawatts each. SeveralStates without specific requirements also add newrenewable capacity, including nearly 400 megawattsin Washington, 300 in Oklahoma, 200 in Iowa, 150 inKansas, and smaller amounts elsewhere.The combination of Federal production tax creditsand State programs results primarily in new windpower. More than 93 percent of the capacity additionsstimulated by State programs are wind plants (Figure60). State programs also spur small amounts of PVand solar thermal capacity, totaling 180 megawatts.On the other hand, with the Federal production taxcredit assumed to expire on December 31, 2007, itspotential to trigger capacity additions using technologieswith longer lead times, such as biomass, geothermal,and hydropower, is limited.Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2006 79