Annual Energy Outlook 2006 with Projections to 2030 - Usinfo.org

Industrial Sector Energy DemandMost Energy-Intensive IndustriesAre in the Manufacturing SectorFigure 45. Energy intensity in the industrial sector,2004 (thousand Btu per 2000 dollar of shipment)NonmanufacturingAgricultureMiningConstructionManufacturingEnergy-intensiveFoodPaperBulk chemicalsGlassCementIron and steelAluminumPetroleum refineriesNon-energy-intensiveMetal-based durablesOther manufacturing0 10 20 30 40 50 60In the industrial sector, the manufacturing subsectoris more energy-intensive than the nonmanufacturingsubsector (Figure 45), using about 50 percent moreenergy per dollar of output in 2004 [85]. From 1985 to2004, energy intensity declined more rapidly fornonmanufacturing industries than for manufacturing,primarily because most of the historical reductionin energy intensity for the manufacturingsubsector had already occurred by 1985 in response tothe high energy prices of the late 1970s and early1980s. In the nonmanufacturing subsector, much ofthe decline in energy intensity from 1985 to 2004resulted from a compositional shift: the relativelylow-intensity construction industry grew more rapidly,particularly in the late 1990s and early 2000s,than the relatively high-intensity mining sector.From 2004 levels, energy intensity in the manufacturingsubsector, based on value of shipments,declines in the reference case at an average annualrate of 1.2 percent through 2030, compared with anaverage decline of 1.0 percent per year in thenonmanufacturing subsector. The improvement inaggregate energy intensity for the manufacturingsubsector is accelerated by a compositional shift. In2004, the energy-intensive group of manufacturingindustries accounted for 21 percent of industrialvalue of shipments and the non-energy-intensivegroup 54 percent. With more rapid output growth inthe non-energy-intensive group from 2004 to 2030,the 2030 shares are 17 percent and 61 percent,respectively.Energy-Intensive Industries GrowLess Rapidly Than Industrial AverageFigure 46. Average growth in industrial output anddelivered energy consumption by sector, 2004-2030(percent per year)NonmanufacturingAgricultureOutputMiningConstructionManufacturingEnergy useEnergy-IntensiveFoodPaperBulk chemicalsGlassCementIron and steelAluminumPetroleum refineriesNon-energy-intensiveMetal-based durablesOther manufacturing-1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0The shift in value of shipments from the industrialsector to the service sectors seen in recent decadescontinues in the AEO2006 reference case. Totalindustrial sector value of shipments grows by 2.1 percentper year on average from 2004 through 2030,while GDP grows by 3.0 percent per year. Among theindustrial subsectors, average annual growth ratesrange from 3.0 percent for metal-based durables to0.5 percent for bulk chemicals (Figure 46).The energy-intensive manufacturing subsector accountedfor nearly two-thirds of industrial deliveredenergy consumption in 2004. From 2004 through2030, the value of shipments for the energy-intensivesubsector grows by an average of 1.3 percent per year,while the non-energy-intensive subsector grows atabout twice that rate. The energy-intensive industriesmaintain their 2004 share of industrial energyconsumption in 2030. With the growth of coal-toliquidsproduction in the refining sector, the bulkchemicals industry accounts for a smaller share of totalindustrial energy use in 2030 than it did in 2004;however, it remains the largest industrial energy consumer,accounting for nearly 25 percent of total industrialenergy consumption in 2030. Together, thepaper, bulk chemicals, and petroleum refining subsectorsaccount for more than 50 percent of all the energyconsumed in the industrial sector.Nonfuel use of energy in the industrial sector is concentratedin the bulk chemicals and constructionindustries. More than 60 percent of the energy consumedin the bulk chemicals industry is in the form offeedstock, and asphalt accounts for more than 50 percentof the energy consumed in construction.72 Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2006