The University of California Libraries: A Plan for Development (1977)
The University of California Libraries: A Plan for Development (1977)
The University of California Libraries: A Plan for Development (1977)
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126 <strong>The</strong> <strong>University</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Cali<strong>for</strong>nia</strong> <strong>Libraries</strong><br />
the predicted low usage a particular book turns out to be in high demand,<br />
it can readily be moved to a more accessible location, and vice<br />
versa. <strong>The</strong> automated circulation systems mentioned earlier will facilitate<br />
monitoring <strong>of</strong> actual use and correction <strong>of</strong> erroneous predictions.<br />
A number <strong>of</strong> writers have noted that a relatively small proportion<br />
<strong>of</strong> any library's collection is in such heavy demand that these<br />
books are <strong>of</strong>ten unavailable when the student or faculty member needs<br />
them, 13 and if the system is to respond effectively, multiple<br />
copies <strong>of</strong> these books must be purchased at the campus level in order<br />
to meet the demand. If this is not done, the goal <strong>of</strong> 24-hour response<br />
cannot be met, even though the titles involved may in fact be<br />
held at the campus level. Buckland, Gore, and others have shown<br />
that if duplication <strong>of</strong> the materials most in demand is pursued at<br />
even a modest level, the increase in the user "satisfaction rate" or<br />
the library's "per<strong>for</strong>mance rate" can be dramatic. 14 Other writers<br />
have shown that it is possible to predict the number <strong>of</strong> multiple<br />
copies needed, using computers and statistical techniques. 15 <strong>The</strong><br />
automated circulation systems mentioned earlier will provide much <strong>of</strong><br />
the needed in<strong>for</strong>mation, and if this strategy is pursued aggressively<br />
it should be possible to meet predicted needs at the campus level<br />
within the specified time.<br />
Region and Systemwide. All materials needed within two days<br />
should be available within one <strong>of</strong> the two proposed regions, and all<br />
13 See, <strong>for</strong> example, Buckland, p. 56; Daniel Gore, "<strong>The</strong> View from<br />
the Tower <strong>of</strong> Babel," Library Journal, v. 100 (September 15, 1975),<br />
p. 1061; and Gordon Williams et al., Library Cost Models: Owning<br />
Versus Borrowing Serial Publications, Office <strong>of</strong> Science In<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
Service, 1968, p. 4.<br />
14 For a recent analysis, see Daniel Gore, "Let <strong>The</strong>m Eat Cake<br />
While Reading Catalog Cards: An Essay on the Availability Problem,"<br />
Library Journal, v. 100 (January 15, 1975), p. 97 ff.<br />
15 See Robert S. Gran, "Predicting the Need <strong>for</strong> Multiple Copies<br />
<strong>of</strong> Books," Journal <strong>of</strong> Library Automation, v. 4, No. 1 (March 1971),<br />
pp. 64-71, and W. Y. Arms, "A Simulation Model <strong>for</strong> Purchasing Duplicate<br />
Copies in a Library," Journal <strong>of</strong> Library Automation, v. 7,<br />
no. 2 (June 1974), pp. 73-82.