Hurricanes: Their Nature and Impacts on Society - Climate Science ...

35 ,~ 20 1201 55
TROPICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EARTH 89
150
40
351
105
30~ +
~ y~ "" ./(~r ~ j5~1
+*~
100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65,- ,- ~U 45
+
-- _I
+ + t/(
+
=
J~ ~
~O."
451
j~ 1",
\r~
~
~~
~
'tt: --::J
15
~ ~ ~~~ -~--
--::= _or
~--= ...1 10
~ .' ;-~--~\~
+) ~7OLR I:TERVAL : 2 STOIOIS+
105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70
,
65
~
,
60
Figure 3.16 This figure shows the number of hurricanes per 100 years passing within
about 85 miles (137 kin) of any point. Analysis is based on the period of record 1886-
1995. Note that in earlier years, stonns farther from the coasts were sometimes not
detected. Thus the figure is more reliable closer to l<strong>and</strong>. Source: C.J. Neumann, 1997,
personal communication. Reproduced by permission of Charles Neumann
recurve northwest <strong>and</strong> then northeast around the high pressure systems, where
they are eventually absorbed into mid-latitude weather systems.
Figure 3.16 shows the probability of a tropical cyclone passing through
regions of equal size in the western Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico <strong>and</strong> Caribbean
(Neumann 1996). The highest probabilities are in the lesser Antilles, through
the Yucatan straits between the Gulf of Mexico <strong>and</strong> the Caribbean, <strong>and</strong> north
of the Bahamas east of the southeastern coast of the United States. Since
1961, seven tropical storms or hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean Basin have
been monitored as crossing over into the Pacific Ocean west of Mexico <strong>and</strong>
were tropical storms or hurricanes in that ocean basin. In that time period,
one Pacific hurricane crossed over to the Atlantic Ocean basin <strong>and</strong> became a
tropical storm. Tropical weather systems which do not become tropical
cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean Basin are the origin of almost all eastern
Pacific tropical cyclones (pasch <strong>and</strong> Avila 1994; Avila <strong>and</strong> Pasch 1995).
~