Hurricanes: Their Nature and Impacts on Society - Climate Science ...

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100 HURRICANES: THEIR NATURE AND IMPACT ON SOCIETY for example, becomes stronger towards the right of a hurricane, with respect to its motion, the tendency is for the storm to move towards the right <strong>and</strong> to slow down. If, however, the steering current becomes weaker towards the right of a moving hurricane, the tendency is for the storm to turn to the left. In addition, a downstream speed-up of the steering current would accelerate a storm, while a downstream deceleration would slow it down (Holl<strong>and</strong> 1983). The spatial structure of the steering flow directly influences storm motion because the hurricane <strong>and</strong> steering current are not separate, distinct features but are intertwined with one another. The hurricane is not like a spinning cork flowing down a stream but is more analogous to an eddy within a stream or cream poured into coffee. Just as with a hurricane, an eddy that is rotating counterclockwise tends to move toward a region in which the flow structure enhances the counterclockwise rotation. The Earth's rotation (as represented by the Coriolis effect; see Figure 3.2) will also influence storm motion. Since the Coriolis effect is greater at higher latitudes, it contributes to the counterclockwise circulation on the west side of a storm (in the northern hemisphere) where northerly winds occur. The net result is a tendency for a poleward <strong>and</strong> slightly westerly drift with respect to the steering current. The thunderstorms associated with the hurricane also modify the steering current (Wang <strong>and</strong> Holl<strong>and</strong> 1996). The air in the upper tropospheric outflow (divergence) descends at some distance from the storm. If this outflow of air were uniform around the storm, there would be no direct effect on the steering current. Observational analysis, however, shows that this outflow is often concentrated in narrow regions in what are called "outflow jets", which can be observed from satellites. If, for instance, this accumulation of air occurred in the front right quadrant with respect to a storm's movement around the southwest side of the Bermuda High, the consequence would be a strengthening of the Bermuda High from what would occur in the absence of the storm (due to the introduction of air to the high pressure system which increases its pressure further). The net result is a movement of the storm to the left of the track that it would have in the absence of this effect. The neglect of this effect in the forecasting of the l<strong>and</strong>fall location of Hurricane Gilbert in 1988 resulted in an erroneous storm track prediction by an independent forecast group of a l<strong>and</strong>fall on the Texas coast. Hurricane Gilbert made final l<strong>and</strong>fall on the northeast coast of Mexico (Sheets 1990). Correspondingly, an outflow jet which results in an accumulation of air in the right rear quadrant of a westward-moving hurricane would tend to accelerate the storm northward in the northern hemisphere. The importance of outflow jets on storm motion becomes more significant for larger <strong>and</strong> more intense storms for which the quantity of air in the outflow is greater. It also becomes a more important component in determining the track of a hurricane or tropical storm when the steering currents are weak <strong>and</strong> ill-defined. Otherwise, when the steering current is strong, outflow jets from
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Hurricanes
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Copyright @ 1997 by John Wiley & So
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Dedication Foreword. Preface. Conte
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CONTENTS 5.3 5.2.3 WindY. . 5.2.4 R
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Foreword Before the mid-l 960s, stu
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X11 FOREWORD The lessons of Camille
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XVI PREFACE One of the fundamental
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XVlll PREFACE about the need for so
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2 HURRICANES: THEIR NATURE AND IMPA
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4 HURRICANES: THEIR NATURE AND IMPA
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INTRODUCfION: SCffiNCE, POLICY, AND
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INTRODUcnON: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND H
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INTRODUCTION: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND
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INTRODUcrION: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND
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INTRODUcrION: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND
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I I I I A -Nr"1v ~ r/) ,:,.," 0- 0-
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INTRODUCfION: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND
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21 INTRODUCTION: SCIENCE, POLICY, A
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INTRODUCfION: SCffiNCE, POLICY, AND
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INTRODUCfION: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND
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CHAPTER 2 The US Hurricane Problem
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM human acti
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM of their p
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 37 2.1.3 S
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 39 activit
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM Figure 2.3
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM on an intr
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM Table 2.1
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TIm us HURRICANE PROBLEM ~ I (a) -.
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Page 67 and 68: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 51 Figure
Page 69 and 70: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM (ODDs) 193
Page 71 and 72: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 55 Figure
Page 73 and 74: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM preparedne
Page 75 and 76: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 59 threat
Page 77 and 78: nIB US HURRICANE PROBLEM Table 2.3
Page 79 and 80: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 63 Paralle
Page 81 and 82: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM Congress,
Page 83 and 84: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 67 Appendi
Page 85 and 86: TRC!>PICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EARTH
Page 87 and 88: 71 TROPICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EART
Page 89 and 90: TROPICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EARTH F
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Page 101 and 102: TROPICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EARTH I
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Page 105 and 106: 35 ,~ 20 1201 55 TROPICAL CYCLONES
Page 107 and 108: TROPICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EARTH 9
Page 109 and 110: HURRICANE FORECASTS Figure 4.1 The
Page 111 and 112: * t " , " ' " i : , , j !' \ HURRIC
Page 113 and 114: HURRICANE FORECASTS (e) 7AM ~ ..i~~
Page 115: HURRICANE Fa RECASTS While the news
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Page 121 and 122: ~ 0, 2 ~ 2 ... ~ 0 ~ ~ 0 ':! Is I~
Page 127 and 128: ~ .I;~ a ;;'0 . ~ ! ~ " 0 'I' -§.
Page 135 and 136: CHAPTERS When a hurricane forms, it
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Page 145 and 146: ~'\ '" 128 \ '-- HURRICANES: THEIR
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150 HURRICANES: THEIR NATURE AND IM
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CHAPTER? 7.1 INTRODUCflON As recoun
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APPENDIX A CHAPTER! Byerly, R., 199
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40 000 30 000 20'000 10 000 APPENDI
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APPENDIX C Selected Data on Tropica
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Figure C.4 Cont: Tracks of intense
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'-'2 ..~ ,-..~ \OQ. ~~ -I" -(') 3.
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APPENDIX C 209 '";ij' 40 Q) ~ C) Q)
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211 APPENDIX D Table D.2 Eastern No
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APPENDIX D Table D.6 Western Austra
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APPENDIX D Table D.8 Fiji Region Na
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APPENDIX D Table 0.10 Southeast Ind
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: 8. ~A ". ~ 00 tU : V ~ ~ ~ V z 8,
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on "'-va , £.c 0 I::.cp. V'O cn ,'
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UJ ~ UJ P-'-'" s~~ 0 In + In O-o>,V
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~ =.d.- ~ 0 ..., E-' g S u 'U~ =.g'
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.s~~ ~...:s ~.9: .- .. ..c ..co " ,
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APPENDIX E 233
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APPENDIX E In sum, TDS provides an
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APPENDIX 0 ~ION E 237 A period of t
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APPENDIX E IF SITUATION W~S P (alp)
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29. APPENDIX E p (0) 5 (a/p) T (alp
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APPENDIX E p (0) p p S T (a/o) (a/p
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APPENDIX E p p 5 p (alp) (r) S (r)
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APPENDIX E 247 P (al p p P (alp) p
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D APPENDIX E s s s s s s S T T T T
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APPENDIX E 251 IMMEDIATE EMERGENCY
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APPENDIX E 253 p p T (alp) (a/o) (0
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APPENDIX E P (a/s) P falsI 5 (alp)
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~ APPENDIX F 257 lOP = 5/9°C 1°C
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REFERENCES 259 Nemec, J.M. Nigg <st
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REFERENCES 261 Cochran, L.
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REFERENCES 263 Etzioni, A., 1985: M
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REFERENCES 265 Graham, B., 1992: An
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REFERENCES 267 Katz, R.W., 1993: To
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REFERENCES 269 Mesthene, E.G., 1967
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REFERENCES 271 south Florida. Part
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REFERENCES 273 Smith, K., 1992: Env
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REFERENCES 275 Wolensky, R.P. <stro
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INDEX 277 eye wall concentric eye w
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INDEX silver iodide 112 Simpson, Ro
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