Hurricanes: Their Nature and Impacts on Society - Climate Science ...

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38 HURRICANES: THEIR NATURE AND IMPACT ON SOCIETY Vulnerability analysis allows for expansion of the degrees of action by allowing for the "possibility that human actions are independent variables, not just responses to climate change" (Downing 1991). In other words, definition of the climate change problem in terms of vulnerability to climate impacts may shed light on aspects of the issue that are neglected by conventional problem definitions (cf. Brunner 1991; Glantz 1988). In the concept of "vulnerability" the analyst seeks to capture an "aggregate measure of human welfare that integrates environmental, social, economic, <strong>and</strong> political exposure to a range of potential harmful perturbations" (Bohle, Downing <strong>and</strong> Watts 1994). Chambers (1989) further refines the concept to "two sides". There is an "external side of risks, shocks <strong>and</strong> stress. ..<strong>and</strong> an internal side which is defenselessness, meaning a lack of means to cope without damaging loss". Vulnerability to a climate- or weather-related event is a function of society's exposure <strong>and</strong> of event incidence. Kates (1980) put it more eloquently: "the impacts of natural events are joint outcomes of the state of nature <strong>and</strong> the nature of society". In defining a problem in terms of vulnerability, the general goal becomes the reduction of vulnerability. Of course, specific actions taken to reduce vulnerability in a particular context will be dependent upon how vulnerability is defined <strong>and</strong> the realism, cost, <strong>and</strong> practicality of alternative response strategies. The goal of "reducing vulnerability" is useful if it is general enough to gamer sufficient consensus of opinion to allow for legitimate debate over various means to achieve the goal. The concept of vulnerability can be used to reframe the hurricane problem facing the United States. Conventional definitions of the hurricane problem tend to rely solely on its physical aspects, often expressed in terms of a "risk", or focus exclusively on the economic or human losses related to hurricane impacts. Both types of definition neglect important aspects of the hurricane problem, <strong>and</strong> thus could lead to "blind spots" in efforts to develop response strategies, potentially resulting in opportunities missed or perils unseen. 2.2 VULNERABILITY TO HURRICANES The vulnerability of society to hurricanes is a function of event incidence <strong>and</strong> societal exposure. Clearly, if people were not exposed to hurricanes or if hurricanes did not occur (i.e. no incidence), then society would be invulnerable to hurricanes. Incidence refers to the climatology of hurricanes -how many, how strong, <strong>and</strong> where. Exposure refers to the number of people <strong>and</strong> amount of property threatened by hurricanes. The number of exposed people <strong>and</strong> amount of threatened property can be reduced through preparedness efforts such as insurance, evacuation, <strong>and</strong> building fortification, where the term preparedness refers in a broad manner to all mitigation, response, <strong>and</strong> recovery
THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 39 activities. Societal vulnerability, then, is determined through the societal <strong>and</strong> climatic aspects of the hurricane phenomenon. 2.2.1 Hurricane incidence Incidence is a function of climatic variability, including intensity, occurrence, <strong>and</strong> l<strong>and</strong>fall frequency. The focus of the following discussion is on intense (also called "major", Category 3, 4, 5) hurricanes. Intensity Under the atmospheric conditions favorable for hurricane intensification (see Section 3.1.2), there are generally two types of intense hurricanes that threaten the US Gulf <strong>and</strong> Atlantic coasts. The first type are slow-moving storms such as usually occur in the Gulf of Mexico <strong>and</strong> over Florida <strong>and</strong> the southeast coasts. The slow movement of these storms over warm ocean waters means that winds in the same direction as the storm's movement will increase on the order of about only 10%. The second type of intense storm is one that has intensified over a warm sea surface <strong>and</strong> then is rapidly ejected to higher latitudes. In this scenario the rapid transit over cooler ocean waters does not permit much weakening of the storm prior to l<strong>and</strong>fall. These storms threaten the Northeast Atlantic coast with high winds as a consequence of the storm's rapid forward motion. In the second type of storm, the area of maximum winds remains offshore in storms that move parallel to the Atlantic coast (with the eye remaining offshore). The intensity of an Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico hurricane at l<strong>and</strong>fall is directly related to its central pressure (Anthes 1982; Simpson <strong>and</strong> Riehl 1981) <strong>and</strong> to its speed. The potential minimum central pressure is limited by sea surface temperature (Merrill 1985; 1987): the higher the sea surface temperature, the lower the potential minimum central pressure <strong>and</strong> the stronger the storm. For example, the minimal Category 3 storm (which corresponds to a potential minimum central pressure of 964 mb) requires a sea surface temperature of at least 26.4°C (Merrill 1985). Hurricane Gilbert (1988), a Category 5 hurricane, is the most intense Atlantic hurricane on record, with a central pressure of 888 mb (Willoughby et al. 1989). Since 1899, only two Category 5 hurricanes have made l<strong>and</strong>fall on the US coast, Camille in 1969 <strong>and</strong> an unnamed Labor Day storm that struck the Florida Keys in 1935 (Hebert, Jarrell <strong>and</strong> Mayfield 1993). Hurricane Opal (1995) was at Category 5 strength immediately prior to its l<strong>and</strong>fall as a Category 3 storm. Damage potential due to strong winds is directly related to a storm's central pressure <strong>and</strong> speed of forward movement. The speed of a storm is added (approximately) onto the wind speeds determined by the central pressure. For
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Hurricanes
Page 4 and 5: Copyright @ 1997 by John Wiley & So
Page 6 and 7: Dedication Foreword. Preface. Conte
Page 8 and 9: CONTENTS 5.3 5.2.3 WindY. . 5.2.4 R
Page 10 and 11: Foreword Before the mid-l 960s, stu
Page 12 and 13: X11 FOREWORD The lessons of Camille
Page 14 and 15: XVI PREFACE One of the fundamental
Page 16 and 17: XVlll PREFACE about the need for so
Page 18 and 19: 2 HURRICANES: THEIR NATURE AND IMPA
Page 20: 4 HURRICANES: THEIR NATURE AND IMPA
Page 23 and 24: INTRODUCfION: SCffiNCE, POLICY, AND
Page 25 and 26: INTRODUcnON: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND H
Page 27 and 28: INTRODUCTION: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND
Page 29 and 30: INTRODUcrION: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND
Page 31 and 32: INTRODUcrION: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND
Page 33 and 34: I I I I A -Nr"1v ~ r/) ,:,.," 0- 0-
Page 35 and 36: INTRODUCfION: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND
Page 37 and 38: 21 INTRODUCTION: SCIENCE, POLICY, A
Page 39 and 40: INTRODUCfION: SCffiNCE, POLICY, AND
Page 45 and 46: INTRODUCfION: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND
Page 47 and 48: CHAPTER 2 The US Hurricane Problem
Page 49 and 50: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM human acti
Page 51 and 52: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM of their p
Page 53: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 37 2.1.3 S
Page 57 and 58: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM Figure 2.3
Page 59 and 60: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM on an intr
Page 61 and 62: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM Table 2.1
Page 63 and 64: TIm us HURRICANE PROBLEM ~ I (a) -.
Page 65 and 66: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM emissions)
Page 67 and 68: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 51 Figure
Page 69 and 70: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM (ODDs) 193
Page 71 and 72: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 55 Figure
Page 73 and 74: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM preparedne
Page 75 and 76: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 59 threat
Page 77 and 78: nIB US HURRICANE PROBLEM Table 2.3
Page 79 and 80: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 63 Paralle
Page 81 and 82: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM Congress,
Page 83 and 84: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 67 Appendi
Page 85 and 86: TRC!>PICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EARTH
Page 87 and 88: 71 TROPICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EART
Page 89 and 90: TROPICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EARTH F
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35 ,~ 20 1201 55 TROPICAL CYCLONES
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TROPICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EARTH 9
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HURRICANE FORECASTS Figure 4.1 The
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* t " , " ' " i : , , j !' \ HURRIC
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HURRICANE FORECASTS (e) 7AM ~ ..i~~
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HURRICANE Fa RECASTS While the news
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102 HURRICANES: THEIR NATURE AND IM
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CHAPTERS When a hurricane forms, it
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I ~..;. 126 HURRICANES: THEm NATURE
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~'\ '" 128 \ '-- HURRICANES: THEIR
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CHAPTER? 7.1 INTRODUCflON As recoun
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APPENDIX A CHAPTER! Byerly, R., 199
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40 000 30 000 20'000 10 000 APPENDI
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APPENDIX C Selected Data on Tropica
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Figure C.4 Cont: Tracks of intense
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APPENDIX C 209 '";ij' 40 Q) ~ C) Q)
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211 APPENDIX D Table D.2 Eastern No
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APPENDIX D Table D.6 Western Austra
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APPENDIX D Table D.8 Fiji Region Na
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APPENDIX D Table 0.10 Southeast Ind
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APPENDIX E 233
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APPENDIX E In sum, TDS provides an
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APPENDIX 0 ~ION E 237 A period of t
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APPENDIX E IF SITUATION W~S P (alp)
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29. APPENDIX E p (0) 5 (a/p) T (alp
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APPENDIX E p (0) p p S T (a/o) (a/p
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APPENDIX E p p 5 p (alp) (r) S (r)
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APPENDIX E 247 P (al p p P (alp) p
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D APPENDIX E s s s s s s S T T T T
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APPENDIX E 251 IMMEDIATE EMERGENCY
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APPENDIX E 253 p p T (alp) (a/o) (0
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APPENDIX E P (a/s) P falsI 5 (alp)
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~ APPENDIX F 257 lOP = 5/9°C 1°C
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REFERENCES 259 Nemec, J.M. Nigg <st
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REFERENCES 261 Cochran, L.
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REFERENCES 263 Etzioni, A., 1985: M
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REFERENCES 265 Graham, B., 1992: An
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REFERENCES 267 Katz, R.W., 1993: To
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REFERENCES 269 Mesthene, E.G., 1967
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REFERENCES 271 south Florida. Part
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REFERENCES 273 Smith, K., 1992: Env
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REFERENCES 275 Wolensky, R.P. <stro
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INDEX 277 eye wall concentric eye w
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INDEX silver iodide 112 Simpson, Ro
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