Hurricanes: Their Nature and Impacts on Society - Climate Science ...

66 HURRICANES: THEIR NATURE AND IMPACf ON SOCIETY
one measure of risk is l<strong>and</strong>fall frequency based upon the climatological record.
Risk can also be defined analytically, e.g. through scenarios that move storms
to different times <strong>and</strong> locations. For instance, what would the effects of the
1938 New Engl<strong>and</strong> hurricane be in 19981 Risks can also be evaluated in a
more subjective manner, such as occurs when an individual decides whether or
not to evacuate.
In practice, determination of population <strong>and</strong> property at risk at particular
locales involves the assessment of coastal inundation due to storm surge based
upon computer models of l<strong>and</strong>falling storms. People vulnerable to storm surge
are generally considered to be most at risk due to a hurricane l<strong>and</strong>fall.
Hurricane winds <strong>and</strong> flooding also threaten people <strong>and</strong> property. Based upon
determination of people <strong>and</strong> property at risk (however defined) actions are
taken to reduce the risk. For example, building codes are designed based upon
a community's expectation of hurricane incidence, <strong>and</strong> evacuation plans are
also designed based upon climatological factors. Under the conventional
definition of the hurricane problem, hurricane policy is centered on reducing
"risk" associated with the storm's impact. In general, however, such policies
lack a means to fully integrate existing preparedness efforts in the definition of
hurricane risk. One example of an effort to include preparedness in definition
of risk is the Building Code Effectiveness Grading Schedule (BCEGS) created
by the Insurance Institute for Property Loss Reduction (BTFFDR 1995). The
BCEGS is a ranking of community implementation of building code enforcement
based on their budget allocated for that purpose <strong>and</strong> the qualification of
their inspectors.
Preparedness assessment
In order to assess a community's preparedness, it is necessary to assess the
"health" of the various decision processes in place to reduce vulnerability. A
healthy decision process will meet criteria of content <strong>and</strong> procedure (see
Lasswell (1971) for a working list of such criteria). Assessment of content is
relatively straightforward: Is there an up-to-date SLOSH model analysis? Is
there an evacuation plan? Are there shelters? Do building codes accurately
consider climatology? Assessment of the procedural aspects of decision
processes is a more daunting task, requiring close attention to the who, what,
where, when, <strong>and</strong> why of particular decisions.
In order to assess the "health" of a particular decision process, one must
first have a "map" of the process with respect to important decisions relevant
to reducing vulnerability. In the context of an approaching hurricane,
important decisions might include whether or not to order an evacuation (<strong>and</strong>
who to evacuate, when), how to enforce building codes, or the amount of
resourc~s to put into education of the public about the hurricane threat. In
1992, Lee County Florida prepared a decision process map which can be used
as a starting point in efforts to determine the health of preparedness (see