Hurricanes: Their Nature and Impacts on Society - Climate Science ...

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HURRICANE ANDREW: FORECAST, IMPACT, RESPONSE 161 Figure 7.1 (continued) Biscayne Bay Biscayne Bay 0 2 .I Miles Path of Andrew's +-- northern eye wall 2S.6°N 2SSoN ,
162 HURRICANES: THEIR NATURE AND IMPACT ON SOCIETY Florida. A survey conducted following Andrew of the behavior of Dade County residents led to two conclusions about the accuracy of the behavioral analysis component of the Evacuation Technical Data Report. Hypothetical response data alone should not be used for driving evacuation behavioral assumptions; what people say they are going to do in a hypothetical scenario often diverges from their actual behavior, <strong>and</strong> A variety of assumptions should be provided for a variety of threat <strong>and</strong> evacuation scenarios, because public response will vary not only from one place to another in the same storm but from storm to storm in the same place. (USACFJFEMA 1993, emphasis in original) The findings underscore "the fact that there is still much to learn about public response in hurricanes in general <strong>and</strong> the application of generalizations to specific locations" (USACE/FEMA 1993). The shelter analyses led to the allocation of sufficient space for those seeking refuge in public shelters. In fact, throughout the warning area, many fewer people went to the shelters than was anticipated. With few minor exceptions, the shelter aspect of the technical data analysis was evaluated as successful (USACE/FEMA 1993). The transportation analysis also proved generally successful (USACE/FEMA 1993). Evacuation decision-making prior to Andrew's impact was facilitated by the location of the NHC in Dade County. In the days preceding l<strong>and</strong>fall, the Emergency Management Directors from both Monroe <strong>and</strong> Dade Counties (Billy Wagner <strong>and</strong> Kate Hale, respectively) interacted directly with NHC forecasters. In addition, the State of Florida Emergency Operations Center has a direct telephone link to the NHC. Outside of south Florida, NHC <strong>and</strong> emergency managers do not have the convenience of co-location, <strong>and</strong> communication may be more difficult. One finding of the assessment conducted by the Department of Commerce was that: Many coastal emergency managers do not underst<strong>and</strong> the scientific reasoning involved in designating hurricane watch <strong>and</strong> warning areas. They want to evacuate either all or none of their coastal surge vulnerable area rather than parts of counties. (DOC 1993) With such a large coastal population in south Florida, it is important to evacuate only those in designated areas. In many of south Florida's coastal counties, residents in different locations face different levels of vulnerability. Therefore, for some evacuation may be unnecessary, <strong>and</strong> should they evacuate, they might actually increase the challenge (e.g. due to gridlock on highways) of evacuating those facing a greater risk from the storm. As a result, the assessment recommended that the NHC work more closely with
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Hurricanes
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Copyright @ 1997 by John Wiley & So
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Dedication Foreword. Preface. Conte
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CONTENTS 5.3 5.2.3 WindY. . 5.2.4 R
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Foreword Before the mid-l 960s, stu
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X11 FOREWORD The lessons of Camille
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XVI PREFACE One of the fundamental
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XVlll PREFACE about the need for so
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2 HURRICANES: THEIR NATURE AND IMPA
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4 HURRICANES: THEIR NATURE AND IMPA
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INTRODUCfION: SCffiNCE, POLICY, AND
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INTRODUcnON: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND H
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INTRODUCTION: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND
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INTRODUcrION: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND
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INTRODUcrION: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND
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I I I I A -Nr"1v ~ r/) ,:,.," 0- 0-
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INTRODUCfION: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND
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21 INTRODUCTION: SCIENCE, POLICY, A
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INTRODUCfION: SCffiNCE, POLICY, AND
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INTRODUCfION: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND
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CHAPTER 2 The US Hurricane Problem
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM human acti
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM of their p
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 37 2.1.3 S
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 39 activit
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM Figure 2.3
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM on an intr
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM Table 2.1
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TIm us HURRICANE PROBLEM ~ I (a) -.
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM emissions)
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 51 Figure
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM (ODDs) 193
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 55 Figure
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM preparedne
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 59 threat
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nIB US HURRICANE PROBLEM Table 2.3
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 63 Paralle
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM Congress,
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 67 Appendi
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TRC!>PICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EARTH
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71 TROPICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EART
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TROPICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EARTH F
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TROPICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EARTH (
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TROPICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EARTH o
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TROPICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EARTH N
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TROPICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EARTH I
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TROPICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EARTH 3
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35 ,~ 20 1201 55 TROPICAL CYCLONES
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TROPICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EARTH 9
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HURRICANE FORECASTS Figure 4.1 The
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* t " , " ' " i : , , j !' \ HURRIC
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HURRICANE FORECASTS (e) 7AM ~ ..i~~
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HURRICANE Fa RECASTS While the news
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~-~ "'"00 ;-:'O-= -=-~"'" a",.- .->
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102 HURRICANES: THEIR NATURE AND IM
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~ 0, 2 ~ 2 ... ~ 0 ~ ~ 0 ':! Is I~
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Page 127 and 128: ~ .I;~ a ;;'0 . ~ ! ~ " 0 'I' -§.
Page 129 and 130: 112 HURRICANES: THEIR NATURE AND IM
Page 135 and 136: CHAPTERS When a hurricane forms, it
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Page 173 and 174: CHAPTER? 7.1 INTRODUCflON As recoun
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Page 211 and 212: APPENDIX A CHAPTER! Byerly, R., 199
Page 215 and 216: 40 000 30 000 20'000 10 000 APPENDI
Page 221 and 222: APPENDIX C Selected Data on Tropica
Page 225 and 226: Figure C.4 Cont: Tracks of intense
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APPENDIX C 209 '";ij' 40 Q) ~ C) Q)
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211 APPENDIX D Table D.2 Eastern No
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APPENDIX D Table D.6 Western Austra
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APPENDIX D Table D.8 Fiji Region Na
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APPENDIX D Table 0.10 Southeast Ind
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: 8. ~A ". ~ 00 tU : V ~ ~ ~ V z 8,
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on "'-va , £.c 0 I::.cp. V'O cn ,'
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UJ ~ UJ P-'-'" s~~ 0 In + In O-o>,V
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APPENDIX E 233
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APPENDIX E In sum, TDS provides an
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APPENDIX 0 ~ION E 237 A period of t
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APPENDIX E IF SITUATION W~S P (alp)
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29. APPENDIX E p (0) 5 (a/p) T (alp
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APPENDIX E p (0) p p S T (a/o) (a/p
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APPENDIX E p p 5 p (alp) (r) S (r)
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APPENDIX E 247 P (al p p P (alp) p
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D APPENDIX E s s s s s s S T T T T
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APPENDIX E 251 IMMEDIATE EMERGENCY
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APPENDIX E 253 p p T (alp) (a/o) (0
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APPENDIX E P (a/s) P falsI 5 (alp)
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~ APPENDIX F 257 lOP = 5/9°C 1°C
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REFERENCES 259 Nemec, J.M. Nigg <st
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REFERENCES 261 Cochran, L.
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REFERENCES 263 Etzioni, A., 1985: M
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REFERENCES 265 Graham, B., 1992: An
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REFERENCES 267 Katz, R.W., 1993: To
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REFERENCES 269 Mesthene, E.G., 1967
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REFERENCES 271 south Florida. Part
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REFERENCES 273 Smith, K., 1992: Env
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REFERENCES 275 Wolensky, R.P. <stro
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INDEX 277 eye wall concentric eye w
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INDEX silver iodide 112 Simpson, Ro
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