Hurricanes: Their Nature and Impacts on Society - Climate Science ...

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40 HURRICANES: THEIR NATURE AND IMPACT ON SOCIETY instance, the New Engl<strong>and</strong> Hurricane of 1938 was traveling at over 70 knots at l<strong>and</strong>fall (Coch 1994). Thus, winds parallel <strong>and</strong> in the direction of the 1938 storm's direction of motion were increased substantially. The 1938 storm is an example of a hurricane that has intensified over a warm sea <strong>and</strong> then ejected to a higher latitude. Occurrence Intense hurricanes are irregular events that occur with greater <strong>and</strong> lesser annual frequencies over decadal <strong>and</strong> longer time-scales, at particular locations on the coast. For example, from 1930 to 1959,25 intense hurricanes struck the US; from 1960 to 1989 only 15 made l<strong>and</strong>fall. Figure 2.3 shows intense hurricane tracks for the periods 1947-1969 <strong>and</strong> 1970-1987. In the case of Florida, decadal variability in hurricane incidence is striking. Figure 2.4 shows hurricane <strong>and</strong> tropical storm l<strong>and</strong>fall for Florida for the periods 1941-1950 <strong>and</strong> 1971-1980. In the earlier decade 20 storms made l<strong>and</strong>fall (six intense); in the later decade there were only four (one intense). When intense hurricanes do occur, they are intensively studied (e.g. Hurricane Frederic, Powell 1982; Hurricane Hugo, Golden 1990; Hurricane Andrew, Wakimoto <strong>and</strong> Black 1994). Although the hurricane season lasts from June to November, 95% of Category 3, 4, <strong>and</strong> 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin occur from August to October (L<strong>and</strong>sea 1993). Since 1984, William Gray of Colorado State University <strong>and</strong> a team of researchers have predicted the following season's hurricane activity based on a number of documented statistical relationships (see Section 4.5.3). His Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Variability technique is based on several climatic indices (Gray 1994). Among the statistical forecasts made using this method are Hurricane Destruction Potential, Intense <strong>Hurricanes</strong> (reaching at least level 3 at some time in a storm's evolution), <strong>and</strong> Intense Hurricane Days. Gray's forecasts have received wide attention in the media <strong>and</strong> by user communities (e.g. Morgenthaler 1994). It has been suggested by some scientists that the hurricane season may be forecast with longer than a year lead time with some level of forecast skill (L<strong>and</strong>sea et al. 1994), including speculation regarding a connection between decadal variations in the "ocean conveyor belt" <strong>and</strong> sea surface temperatures, Sahel rainfall, El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, <strong>and</strong> Atlantic hurricanes. Gray (1992) stated that: ...of those 24 hurricane seasons of this century in which major hurricane l<strong>and</strong>fall occurred [along the US East Coast] in only one season (1992) did distinctly dry Western Sahel rainfall conditions exist in the same year with distinctly warm EI Nino sea surface conditions. And, that year <strong>and</strong> storm was 1992 <strong>and</strong> Andrew.
THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM Figure 2.3 Comparison of intense (Saffir/Simpson Categories 3, 4, <strong>and</strong> 5) hurricane tracks for (a) 1947-1969, <strong>and</strong> (b) 1970-1987. Since 1989 there have been five l<strong>and</strong>falling intense hurricanes, Hugo (1989) Andrew (1992), Emily (1993), Opal (1995), <strong>and</strong> Fran (1996). Graph provided by W. Gray The occurrence of Category 3, 4, <strong>and</strong> 5 hurricanes along the US East Coast has a strong correlation with Sahel rainfall (Gray 1990; Gray <strong>and</strong> L<strong>and</strong>sea 1992; Goldenberg <strong>and</strong> Shapiro 1996). With a reliable prediction of the ENSO cycle or western Sahel rainfall more than one year ahead, it may be possible also to forecast reliably interannual hurricane occurrence. At present, however, such skills are in their infancy. Based on the work of Gray <strong>and</strong> others, there appears to be some statistical skill in predicting the level of hurricane activity in the Atlantic ocean, at least 41
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Hurricanes
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Copyright @ 1997 by John Wiley & So
Page 6 and 7: Dedication Foreword. Preface. Conte
Page 8 and 9: CONTENTS 5.3 5.2.3 WindY. . 5.2.4 R
Page 10 and 11: Foreword Before the mid-l 960s, stu
Page 12 and 13: X11 FOREWORD The lessons of Camille
Page 14 and 15: XVI PREFACE One of the fundamental
Page 16 and 17: XVlll PREFACE about the need for so
Page 18 and 19: 2 HURRICANES: THEIR NATURE AND IMPA
Page 20: 4 HURRICANES: THEIR NATURE AND IMPA
Page 23 and 24: INTRODUCfION: SCffiNCE, POLICY, AND
Page 25 and 26: INTRODUcnON: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND H
Page 27 and 28: INTRODUCTION: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND
Page 29 and 30: INTRODUcrION: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND
Page 31 and 32: INTRODUcrION: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND
Page 33 and 34: I I I I A -Nr"1v ~ r/) ,:,.," 0- 0-
Page 35 and 36: INTRODUCfION: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND
Page 37 and 38: 21 INTRODUCTION: SCIENCE, POLICY, A
Page 39 and 40: INTRODUCfION: SCffiNCE, POLICY, AND
Page 45 and 46: INTRODUCfION: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND
Page 47 and 48: CHAPTER 2 The US Hurricane Problem
Page 49 and 50: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM human acti
Page 51 and 52: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM of their p
Page 53 and 54: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 37 2.1.3 S
Page 55: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 39 activit
Page 59 and 60: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM on an intr
Page 61 and 62: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM Table 2.1
Page 63 and 64: TIm us HURRICANE PROBLEM ~ I (a) -.
Page 65 and 66: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM emissions)
Page 67 and 68: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 51 Figure
Page 69 and 70: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM (ODDs) 193
Page 71 and 72: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 55 Figure
Page 73 and 74: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM preparedne
Page 75 and 76: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 59 threat
Page 77 and 78: nIB US HURRICANE PROBLEM Table 2.3
Page 79 and 80: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 63 Paralle
Page 81 and 82: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM Congress,
Page 83 and 84: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 67 Appendi
Page 85 and 86: TRC!>PICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EARTH
Page 87 and 88: 71 TROPICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EART
Page 89 and 90: TROPICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EARTH F
Page 93 and 94: TROPICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EARTH (
Page 97 and 98: TROPICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EARTH o
Page 99 and 100: TROPICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EARTH N
Page 101 and 102: TROPICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EARTH I
Page 103 and 104: TROPICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EARTH 3
Page 105 and 106: 35 ,~ 20 1201 55 TROPICAL CYCLONES
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TROPICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EARTH 9
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HURRICANE FORECASTS Figure 4.1 The
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* t " , " ' " i : , , j !' \ HURRIC
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HURRICANE FORECASTS (e) 7AM ~ ..i~~
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HURRICANE Fa RECASTS While the news
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102 HURRICANES: THEIR NATURE AND IM
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CHAPTERS When a hurricane forms, it
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I ~..;. 126 HURRICANES: THEm NATURE
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~'\ '" 128 \ '-- HURRICANES: THEIR
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~ I 00- .". ~ -0( v 1a u .§ ~ ...g
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CHAPTER? 7.1 INTRODUCflON As recoun
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APPENDIX A CHAPTER! Byerly, R., 199
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40 000 30 000 20'000 10 000 APPENDI
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APPENDIX C Selected Data on Tropica
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Figure C.4 Cont: Tracks of intense
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'-'2 ..~ ,-..~ \OQ. ~~ -I" -(') 3.
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APPENDIX C 209 '";ij' 40 Q) ~ C) Q)
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211 APPENDIX D Table D.2 Eastern No
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APPENDIX D Table D.6 Western Austra
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APPENDIX D Table D.8 Fiji Region Na
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APPENDIX D Table 0.10 Southeast Ind
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: 8. ~A ". ~ 00 tU : V ~ ~ ~ V z 8,
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on "'-va , £.c 0 I::.cp. V'O cn ,'
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. OK OK U ~ ,. , , ..' ..~ '"' Z !
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UJ ~ UJ P-'-'" s~~ 0 In + In O-o>,V
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~ =.d.- ~ 0 ..., E-' g S u 'U~ =.g'
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APPENDIX E 233
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APPENDIX E In sum, TDS provides an
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APPENDIX 0 ~ION E 237 A period of t
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APPENDIX E IF SITUATION W~S P (alp)
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29. APPENDIX E p (0) 5 (a/p) T (alp
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APPENDIX E p (0) p p S T (a/o) (a/p
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APPENDIX E p p 5 p (alp) (r) S (r)
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APPENDIX E 247 P (al p p P (alp) p
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D APPENDIX E s s s s s s S T T T T
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APPENDIX E 251 IMMEDIATE EMERGENCY
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APPENDIX E 253 p p T (alp) (a/o) (0
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APPENDIX E P (a/s) P falsI 5 (alp)
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~ APPENDIX F 257 lOP = 5/9°C 1°C
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REFERENCES 259 Nemec, J.M. Nigg <st
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REFERENCES 261 Cochran, L.
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REFERENCES 263 Etzioni, A., 1985: M
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REFERENCES 265 Graham, B., 1992: An
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REFERENCES 267 Katz, R.W., 1993: To
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REFERENCES 269 Mesthene, E.G., 1967
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REFERENCES 271 south Florida. Part
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REFERENCES 273 Smith, K., 1992: Env
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REFERENCES 275 Wolensky, R.P. <stro
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INDEX 277 eye wall concentric eye w
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INDEX silver iodide 112 Simpson, Ro
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