Hurricanes: Their Nature and Impacts on Society - Climate Science ...

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HURRICANES: THEIR NATURE AND IMPACT ON SOCffiTY
A forecast is only useful if it can be incorporated into the decision process of
a particular user. For this to happen, "it is vital that [official] personnel share
knowledge of dissemination systems, procedures, capabilities, <strong>and</strong> response
requirements with the media; Federal, state, <strong>and</strong> local agencies; <strong>and</strong> the general
public involved in the total warning process" (NOAA 1994). Similarly, officials
must also be aware of the information needs of <strong>and</strong> decision-making constraints
on users of their information. Effective use of a forecast is not achieved
simply by sending information from one party to another; it is the result of
two-way interaction between the sender <strong>and</strong> receiver.
A focus on the process of decision-making is central to realistic determination
of the opportunities for <strong>and</strong> limitations on use of forecasts to reduce
societal vulnerabilities to hurricanes (Pielke 1994). To focus on process is to
focus on the formulation, promulgation, <strong>and</strong> execution of particular decisions
(Lasswell 1971). Often, both scientists <strong>and</strong> policy-makers alike behave as if the
development of scientific information (such as a forecast) is sufficient to lead
to better decisions. From a decision-maker's perspective, a call for better
information from scientists can forestall the need to make difficult decisions
while placing the burden of problem-solving upon the scientists (Clark <strong>and</strong>
Majone 1985). From a scientist's perspective, a focus on information allows
for relative autonomy from the "politics" of decision-making <strong>and</strong> a
justification for continued funding. However, it is often the case that scientific
information is misused or not used at all because of rigidities in <strong>and</strong>
practicalities of decision-making processes (e.g. Feldman <strong>and</strong> March 1981).
Specific decisions are made in the context of a set of alternative courses of
action. For example, in order to better prepare for the hurricane threat,
citizens of New Orleans might desire a range of alternative responses to the
following questions: How strictly shall we enforce our buildings codes? At
what point in time before an approaching hurricane shall evacuation become
m<strong>and</strong>atory? How much, if any, increase in insurance should citizens be
required to carry in the face of a long-term forecast of increased hurricane
incidence? Alternative actions in response to each question are embedded in a
broader context of values, feasibility, <strong>and</strong> efficacy. For instance, building code
enforcement cannot be separated from issues such as the costs (to the resident)
of building a reinforced structure <strong>and</strong> the tax revenues necessary to hire a
sufficient number of building inspectors. In many respects, decisions to which
forecasts may be relevant are decisions about how a community wishes to
move into the future.
Policy-makers require some sense of the usefulness of short- <strong>and</strong> long-term
forecasts with respect to the hurricane problem in order to determine the
amount of resources to be placed into their development versus alternative
responses. However, demonstration of use or value of hurricane forecasts is a
challenging analytical task. Glantz (1986) notes that "one could effectively
argue that the value of climate-related forecasts will in most instances be at
least as much a function of the political, economic, <strong>and</strong> social settings in